absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[JimSharp]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?
[/quote]

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

[/quote]

Probably not wrong to contextualize a bit, tho, since HRC was in Vegas at Culinary Union doing a speech/GOTV today. Doesn't negate the numbers, but if that doesn't bring you a good day, well, it's a bad day.

Does sound like the NV insiders feel like things are feeling pretty 2012-ish.

[JimSharp]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

D ~+1,000 (i.e., was 4,000 in 2012)

Probably not wrong to contextualize a bit, tho, since HRC was in Vegas at Culinary Union doing a speech/GOTV today. Doesn't negate the numbers, but if that doesn't bring you a good day, well, it's a bad day.

Does sound like the NV insiders feel like things are feeling pretty 2012-ish.
[/quote]

You're right to point that out. The fact that Trump's rally yielded basically no change at all, however, does give some sense of GOTV differences (differences which are likely to keep playing out this week).
[/quote]

Well, one of the storylines has been that he has no ground game and she has BHO's + money. Maybe sometimes things just are what they actually are?

It is kind of interesting how the polls are nudging strongly in a DJT direction, but the "facts on the ground" seem to be suggesting at least a "normal/slight" HRC/Dem win.

Even at Silver's site, the chances of a Dem congress has inverted with the chances of an HRC win, for the first time I remember all campaign. Is it really possible/plausible that suddenly HRC is less popular/likely to win than swing state/tight race senate candidates? AND that Nevada plays out like 2012, (and perhaps NC - and certainly FLA is looks at tight as ever?) but the rest of the country is way off?

That kid of analysis is beyond my pay grade, but it will be interesting to see.

[JimSharp]

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

[JimSharp]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

Reporting numbers =  always searching for a neutral narrative? OK, all right!

But yeah, they are incompetent.

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Do you know how many UPA voted early in 2012? UPA should be Hillary friendly.

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Intresting.

Though self-reported Indie from CNN is not the same as UNA.
We'll probably also see more uneducated white Dems voting for Trump and educated white Reps voting for Hillary. Question is which share will be bigger

My "indie" are UPA but not early voting number, just exit totals.  34% of the voters (in CNN exit - caveat there) were UNA. 43% BO, 50% MR, 7% other.

[JimSharp]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Since mail-in periods are long enough, I can't imagine why that would be so problematic. They can find their own private time to mail it.

Voting is very easy. There are ridiculous numbers of polling places, and early and absentee voting in most states, etc. If someone can't handle putting in the thought on how to vote, they probably also haven't put enough thought into who they are going to vote for. I'm not sure I want that person voting for the leader of the free world.

Of course, it is not equally easy in all parts of the country. Duke students claim, for instance (dunno if true or not) that nearest polling site is 20 min bus ride from campus. If so, that is really messed up and probably part of intentional voter suppression.

And the bigger question is why should it be any more difficult that absolutely necessary? Again, if effort = quality vote, let's put the ballot box at the end of a maze, or only open it after the voter solves a riddle... There is 0 reason to make it harder than it has to be in any situation.

[JimSharp]

Here are the current statewide numbers (which will change very slightly when the few remaining rural counties report Fri numbers):

Dems: 323,466 (42.2%)
Reps: 277,417 (36.1%)
Other: 166,532 (21.7%)
TOTAL: 767,415 (equal to 8.8% increase over 2012 EV)

So Dems have the exact same 42-36 = 6% edge over Reps that they had in 2012.




 

Interesting thing - if the "others" break by the 54-27 that CNN poll had them breaking the race is bascially tie right now... (Not saying they will, that's a weird number historically and demographically for NV, but it's an odd math quirk that that split will bring it back close.)

[JimSharp]

Ralston trolls so hard:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  5m5 minutes ago
I'll be on MSNBC at 6 PM PT with @chrislhayes talking about how I made a mistake in my math and Trump has Nevada locked. Or not.

Ironiclly, he did make a mistake in his math.

That's funny - what did he do?

Meanwhile, I spent the day having "fun with math" with my D comparing the NV CNN/OCR poll that has Trump +6 with the actual To Date results of the NV EV as per the SOS site. It was a really great way to get her doing some % and fractions while working on something she was into: She wanted me to show her why Ralston said the CNN poll had to be wrong.

We were able to work out that the CNN/OCR poll has to be wrong some place:
Clark/Washoe county Rep/Dem split (47/46:47/45)
or the % of Dems voting Dem (93%)
or the % of Reps Xover (2%)
or the UNA split (56% for R/26% for D (as suspiciously even % breakout by the way...)
or some combo of all four.
But we could not find a way to get the CNN/OCR Poll % to mesh with real numbers unless the final day turnout is wildly out of whack with historical (and this election) voter turnout patterns in Clark+Washoe. We did not, I admit, calculate how far out of whack it would need to be, but it looks like it would involve the Dem GOTV going home on Monday and about 120k Dems staying home.

Seeing how difficult it is to make the CNN/OCR numbers square with "facts on the ground" I wonder if Ralston is not more right about what's happening than the poll aggregators.

[JimSharp]

Odd - that looks LESS Latino compared to CNN 2012 exit polls in NV. (64% White. 19% Latino.) I had heard that Latino reg is up 2% and voting is up? Pew Research has Latino registered as 17% in 2014... Hm?

[JimSharp]

So Comey "clears" Clinton - but a bit late for much of Colorado.

Am I wrong to worried about the Co demos puling a surprise and going for DT?

[JimSharp]

Can someone please post updated numbers for  Colorado?

Dems have a 7,000 vote lead. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 100,000 ballots.

As of Friday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  554,340 (371,190)
Republicans  547,775 (475,667)
Independent 429,267 (290,600)

TOTAL 1,553,325 (1,149,745)

Dem turnout up 49%
Rethuglican turnout up 15%
Independent turnout up 48%

Total turnout up 35%

thanks. I'll go back to worrying about NH. I'm just afraid dope really does make you (vote) stupid!

Kind of shocked on FLA numbers. I really didn't think it could be eeked out. fingers/toes crossed.

[JimSharp]

Judge has ordered that polling booths stay open in Miami-Dade until 9 PM.

That's Un-American!! Oh, wait. Nevermind....

[JimSharp]

2012
- 11 percent Latino
- 77 percent white

2016
-- 13. 5 percent Latino
--77 percent white

Is it not a relatively good news for Reps?

Latino increase vs black/other decrease. Black vote more heavily for Dems than any other group?

Depends where those 2% came from. Has anyone published AA numbers for 2016?
If all 2.5% come from AA (~9% total vote/92% BO in 2012), she probably has +/- 1000 less votes than BO did when all voting in is. (Latino vote for BO was 71/27)
If that 2.5% comes from Asian/other (also ~9%) they split 50/47 for OB/MR, so she gains maybe a few hundred votes? Split is probably in the middle, so she might end up with +/-500 less?

Bigger question is where the White vote is coming from and if it echoes BO #s. In NV it seems like Location, Location, Location. Clark +14 BO, Washoe +4. Rest +MR, but Clark=~70% total vote, Washoe = ~17%. If both those places go HC, even by a small margin in Washoe (Clark has to be fairly strong with the Reid/Union turnout machine.) don't see how/where the DT votes come from.

More women should = +% for HC. More men, even Latino or AA men dampen that advantage.
My uneducated guess is HC by 25,000 in NV at the end of the day. Not BO numbers, but enough to win.

[JimSharp]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

Why not? If we are unable to provide infrastructure where voters don't have to wait hours, even with early voting, what is wrong with a month for voting?

We let candidates campaign for 3.5 years...

[JimSharp]

Because I have a pathological need to look for the impending doom, be really nice if FLA gets it done as I have a bad vibe about the Philly strike. That will leave a lot of votes on the table. Or in the kitchen. We will see how the Pennsy GOTV stacks up.

[JimSharp]

Can't the Pennsylvania legislature call an emergency session and legislate them back to work? Surely the transit union isn't so tone deaf they're willing to risk turning the Oval Office to that pervert?

Pennsy legislature is Rep. They would love nothing more than the strike to shut Philly down completely. If they could legislate an early snow storm they'd do that too.

Will the union shoot itself in the foot? Having grown up in Philly, you can't ever underestimate how silly things can get. Better for all of us if FLA just gets it done.

[JimSharp]

So is this election more like Sweden or Austria?

I personally see more parallels to the 1973 West Bromwich by-election. Enoch Powell's refusal to back the Tory is Romney refusing to endorse Trump and the 16% the National Front got is like the Johnson/Stein protest vote.

I know this sounds like irrelevant nonsense but as a provincial little Englander I am incapable of understanding international elections without somehow relating it to my country. Foreign concepts are hard.

Johnson/Stein will get <5% combined, I bet. More because they are both terrible candidates than anything. If GJ were not so silly, he could have gotten 10% just by being on the ballot.

[JimSharp]

So is this election more like Sweden or Austria?

I personally see more parallels to the 1973 West Bromwich by-election. Enoch Powell's refusal to back the Tory is Romney refusing to endorse Trump and the 16% the National Front got is like the Johnson/Stein protest vote.

I know this sounds like irrelevant nonsense but as a provincial little Englander I am incapable of understanding international elections without somehow relating it to my country. Foreign concepts are hard.

Lol, yeah. There is no similarity between all right whatsoever. It is just coincidence that they happen to occur in the whole Western world at the same time. The demographics/pattern of voters are similar to Brexit/France/Sweden as well.

If it wasn't for non-english talking Hispanics or whatever the reason is that polls have very different results, I'd bet that polls would underestimate Trump by 1-4%.

If they had simply taken Trump's Twitter account away in August, he would have won this thing in a walk. Americans engage in a surprising amount of magical thinking - and we tend to like to change parties every 8 years, just 'cause.

[JimSharp]

Nearly all the polling shows Trump is doing much worse in the suburbs of Philly than Romney.

My unscientific take:
1) The Philly 'burbs have been watching Trumps act up close for many years now.
2) Women are usually the tipping point demo in the Philly 'burbs
3) Mont/Bucks if filled with women I know/am related to and anecdotally they are PISSED.
I'd expect Reps to do a bit worse than MR in the exurb philly demos. Maybe even Chester.