absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[QE]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  10s10 seconds ago
I see you Orange County!
19,682 in-person early votes (biggest day by 2500)
Dems +3300, plus another 5500 NPA voters #wow

Wow. That's quite impressive.

[QE]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

^^^
*4K more than yesterday
*7k more than Sun
*9k more than Sat.
*10k more than Fri.

[QE]

(Apologies if this has already been posted)

Florida in-person EV stats by county:

http://brianamos.com/maps/flearlyvote.html

You can isolate individual dates or look at cumulative trends. 

[QE]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

And the wall just got 4,800 votes higher!

[QE]

There is some cause for concern in Michigan:

There has been a drop-off in AV's versus 2012 according to the Detroit City Clerk's office. They are estimating approx. 70K AV's returned by election day for 2016. For reference, about 80K were returned in 2012. Now, granted, some of that may be population loss, but this may be part of the reason for Bill Clinton's impromptu stop in Detroit today (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/02/sources-bill-clinton-makes-surprise-detroit-visit/93204146/).

So far, about 53K absentee ballots have been issued with almost 37K returned as of November 1st.

Zach Gorchow ‏@ZachGorchow 3h3 hours ago
Will blog on this tomorrow, but Michigan Dems have reasons for serious concern with falloff in absentee ballots returned in Detroit. #2016

I would be interested to see if there has been corresponding drop offs in Flint, Lansing and other population centers.

https://twitter.com/ZachGorchow?lang=en

[QE]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 18m18 minutes ago

22,000 had voted in Clark by 3 PM. That's 1,500 more than had voted by the same time on Wednesday. Could be another big Clark turnout day.

[QE]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

[QE]

Idk why Ralston said it was a good day for the GOP in Washoe. I mean, yes they "won" the day but GOP was +500 in Washoe in 2012 EV. Now with one day to go Democrats are +1,000. Given Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012 I don't know in what universe doing worse than 2012 could be called "good."

I was editorializing Ralston's tweet. Looked at in isolation, the GOP "won" the day but I agree that they're doing worse relative to their performance in 2012. Things look dire for the GOP. I also think they may under perform in some of the rural counties, such as Lincoln, White Pine, and Lander - all of which have heavy Mormon populations.

[QE]

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Wow.

Haven't seen this confirmed, but makes sense. Matches O's lead in 2012 when he won by 6.7. Of course, Heller won by 1.2% in the same circumstance.

Yup. Confirmed by Ralston:


Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.

[QE]

Steve Schale:

Some Florida numbers thru Fri 5.731m total votes 464k yesterday alone. 368k in-person early. D: 39.55% R: 39.45% NPA: 21 1/


Can't crunch numbers for few hours, but NPA share went from 20.55% to 21 in one day, which suggests another strong Hispanic day 2/

Keep in mind these numbers often change a bit in morning & with many big counties had record turnout yesterday, these prob will too. 3/

Palm Beach County had its best day yesterday, but it is still a place that needs good weekend to catch up 4/

The Dade numbers, in the words of a very smart friend of mine, can only be described as "insane" 5/

Dade (D) & Lee (R) are in a daily battle for county most over-performing its projected turnout. I suspect Dade will grab #1 spot today. 6/

[QE]

Does anybody have a county map of Florida that indicates on what date early voting ends for each county? I remember somebody mentioning that many of the smaller counties end early voting before the larger counties (population wise).

[QE]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

That's outstanding - especially because I expect Hillary to get 63-65% of the vote there.

[QE]

Not entirely related to the presidential race, but it's early vote info nonetheless:

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[QE]

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Wonderful news! Trump is cooked in VA.

[QE]

With one hour left, Broward sets a new early day voting record with 38,401 early votes ...almost certain to exceed 40K early votes #soulstothepolls

Wonderful news!

Any bets that Clinton is going to break 70% in Broward?

[QE]

Early vote differentials on the final day of EV in Florida:

Bay: GOP +1153
Bradford: GOP +61
Broward: DEM +19148
Charlotte: GOP +510
Duval: DEM +3095
Hillsborough: DEM +3562
Leon: DEM +3064
Osceola: DEM +2035
Pinellas: DEM +1196
Polk: DEM +734
Seminole: DEM +152
St. Lucie: DEM +825
Suwannee: DEM +1

No information publicly available for Miami-Dade or Palm Beach until tomorrow morning. Orange should come in later. The total Democratic advantage in Florida today without those three counties is 32,028 before we hear from M-Dade, PB and Orange

Woooow

Is it just me or does it seem like Bay County punched above its weight (at least in regards to today's EV)? That seems like a lot of early votes for a panhandle county with just Panama City / Panama City Beach as population centers.

[QE]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2m2 minutes ago
In Florida in 2012, 44% of whites waited to vote until ED; 50.5% of Hispanics; 35.2% of blacks.

Yeah, that will lead to a strong election day performance by Trump alright.

[QE]

@DeFede

#BREAKING Record setting day for early voting in Broward (44,216) and Miami-Dade (53,095) - unprecedented numbers for single day @CBSMiami

44K IN BROWARD

Truly BEAUTIFUL