absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Tender Branson]

NV is now D+5 (was D+7 in 2012).

More than 620.000 early votes so far and still 2 more days left with about 50K votes each.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

NV now already has more early votes than total votes cast in the 2000 election.

[Tender Branson]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

[Tender Branson]

Thx to Lief for giving a proper explanation (without insulting me) and the two others can kiss my ass.

[Tender Branson]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

[Tender Branson]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

Hideous analogy. This is raw votes.

A raw vote total, yes.

But nobody knows how they voted ... so making any conclusions from them is pretty stupid.

Especially a call coming from a major political journalist like him.

[Tender Branson]

We've crossed the 40 million threshold! Total votes now at 40,291,635 (87.2% of 2012 early vote, 31.3% of total 2012 vote).

Below is the state-by-state breakdown. The election is already about 3/4 over in Nevada and 2/3 over in AZ and FL.

State : 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   40,291,635   /   128,925,332   =   31.25%
NV   767,415   /   1,014,918   =   75.61%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
FL   5,731,761   /   8,474,134   =   67.64%
NC   2,892,090   /   4,493,301   =   64.36%
GA   2,372,403   /   3,897,839   =   60.86%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
MT   272,680   /   483,932   =   56.35%
TX   4,497,431   /   7,991,197   =   56.28%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   109,767   /   321,072   =   34.19%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

Funny how some states are ahead of the so-called "all-mail states" (CO, WA, OR) ...

[Tender Branson]

Based on these numbers from all states, it looks like overall turnout will likely be the same as 2012 (+/- 3%).

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

[Tender Branson]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (the leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

[Tender Branson]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Austria =! U.S.

Obviously. Yes.

But it could mirror the Austrian Presidential election this time, just on a 40x bigger scale.

Also the candidates are roughly comparable (VdB more so with Hillary, just without her email scandal and secrecy issues and Hofer being way more likeable than asshole Trump).

[Tender Branson]

There's also another similarity between the Austrian and the coming US election that you cannot deny:

Hofer (who's actually the far-right candidate) did very well in rural, formerly heavy industrial/mining Social-Democratic voting areas. Much like Trump does in former heavily Democratic-voting states, such as WV/KY/TN/AR and the likes.

VdB on the other hand won some rural areas that voted heavily Conservative in the 1980s, much like some US conservatives are now abandoning Trump in states like UT, VA, CO etc.

[Tender Branson]

final post on that matter....if austria is a sign, HRC would kill it in CO/NC/GA.

(--- almost the final post ---)

Why ?

Vorarlberg = UT

Tyrol = CO

But what is NC and GA ?

Upper Austria or Lower Austria. Hard to tell. Or: if Austria is any sign then it's that Trump and Hillary will split the major battleground states in an overall very tight election. Hofer won the battleground state of Lower Austria, while VdB won the battleground state of Upper Austria (which always votes extremely close to Austria as a whole).

[Tender Branson]

The final puzzle in the Austria vs. US comparison will be the early vote vs. election day vote:

Like in Austria, the early vote in the US is heavily Dem/left (almost identical according to polls: 60-65%) - and the election day vote was heavily Hofer (52-48).

It remains to be seen if Trump can mobilize as much as Hofer did with the election day folk.

[Tender Branson]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
Again Afr-Am enthusiasm should not be judged by NC alone: Georgia Afr-Am #earlyovte up +23,859 from 2012, but NC down -65,650 votes

What was the AA early vote % in GA in 2012 and what is it now ?

[Tender Branson]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

[Tender Branson]

What's McDonald trying to say about LA ?

Blacks make up just 26% of the early vote in LA this year, according to his own numbers. And the early vote is 150% that of 2012 already ...

They were at 34% in 2012 and 36% in 2008, a MASSIVE drop.

He's referring to absolute numbers, not relative percentages.

If 50% more people have voted early this year in LA, and blacks are 26% of that vote, then that means comparatively they would have been 39% of the 2012 vote.

Absolute numbers are meaningless. It's the percentage that matters: If AA made up 35% in 2008 and 2012, but only 26% now that is very, very bad for Hillary and the Dems down there. It means that Trump is flirting with 60% of the vote in LA, or more than that.

[Tender Branson]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

[Tender Branson]

Well, if there are long lines of older or middle-aged white people on CNN tomorrow it should be good news for Trump.

If not, good news for Hillary.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting ...

The electorate in CO so far (1.9 million ballots returned) is much older than the one in 2012:

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-Ballots-Returned-Report-November-7th-2016.pdf

18-34 y/o: 18.3% vs. 23.1% in 2012
65+: 28.8% vs. 21.1% in 2012

[Tender Branson]

Broward county also doing live updates...tremendous activity already - over 75K election day votes!

http://www.browardsoe.org/Voting-Methods/Early-Voting-Totals

Nice.

If the average keeps up, Broward will have 275K election day voters, for 905K in total.

[Tender Branson]

Currently, turnout is up more in Broward than in Hillsborough. That's a good sign for Clinton no?

But not a whole lot:

Broward: 120% of 2012 turnout
Hillsborough: 119% of 2012 turnout