absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Person Man]

Jon Ralston calls the state of Nevada for Hillary Clinton (and probably Catherine Cortez-Masto).

Trump would need unthinkable Election Day numbers to overcome the early vote lead that Dems hold.

At least we have Nevada taking the place of New Hampshire in das Freiwal. It will be a funky looking map.

[Person Man]

This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

[Person Man]

i am not concerned about CO.

it's just true, that Dems SHOULD have a majority of their own since they are now the biggest registered bloc in CO.

And right now the old and those in conservative CDs seem to be the ones casting ballots and republicans ares still 3000 behind where they were.

[Person Man]

And right now the old and those in conservative CDs seem to be the ones casting ballots and republicans ares still 3000 behind where they were.

this site claims pubs have a lead of about 2k votes since this afternoon ...

http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2016-ballots-returned-reports/?utm_content=buffer26329&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

but i am not sure if this is reliable information.

I am not sure how they would since the CO SOS is closed on weekends and there is no mail on Sunday.

[Person Man]

I mean, what is occurring in Colorado is basically both parties voting equal to their registration, with Republicans having fallen in registration since 2012 so that Democrats now narrowly lead. In that context, Democrats are well positioned to win the state rather easily.

It is looking like the polling average is about a point ahead, too.

[Person Man]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

This is very important.

Looks like the bad hombres have more ammunition than Bubba and his tailgate does.

[Person Man]

The question then becomes is if there are enough famous Florida Neocons (that will still hold their nose over Trump) and single issue antiabortionists amongst the Hispanics to give Trump the state.

[Person Man]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

Haha, OK. Latinos? People from Latin America?

I generally thought of them as multi-racial people who grew up in a Romance-language speaking household so that you could include Brazilians.

I mean, are Spanish people Hispanic? Are Italians, Quebecios, and Portuguese Latino?

[Person Man]

Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.

Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?

Haha, OK. Latinos? People from Latin America?

I generally thought of them as multi-racial people who grew up in a Romance-language speaking household so that you could include Brazilians.

I mean, are Spanish people Hispanic? Are Italians, Quebecios, and Portuguese Latino?

I use term Hispanics/Latinos = people from Latin America. And I think Latinos are much more quickly and easily to become a part of "western cultural society". One of the reason is that they want to, IMHO.

Maybe. I think the big thing for some populations is that it wasn't really their choice to be here or not and now they are here and have no other place to go. That is something that we all have to respect, IMHO.

[Person Man]

Interesting ...

The electorate in CO so far (1.9 million ballots returned) is much older than the one in 2012:

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-Ballots-Returned-Report-November-7th-2016.pdf

18-34 y/o: 18.3% vs. 23.1% in 2012
65+: 28.8% vs. 21.1% in 2012

Yet R turnout is down 2%?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

So Ohio might be lost to nihilism?

[Person Man]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

You're insulting your own party?

He isn't really GOP. I think he is like -6s on his PM.

[Person Man]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

why compare to 2014 and not 2012?
Dems dont turn out for midterms

Because dems kept the governorship in 2014.

Hick is very Hillarylike and Both Ways Bob is very Trumpy. That said, Ds are doing a point better than 2012. If  Trump w8ns here, he is already President Elect when he does

[Person Man]

Final update from Florida brings the total to over 6.5 million, and the Democratic lead to 91K. Ballots will still keep arriving but I don't think there will be any more updates before election day.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

The partisan voting count should be close enough to be overcome by the crossover vote and Hispanic surge?