absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[NOVA Green]

trump is btw looking for doorknockers RIGHT NOW.

Shoot.... I should apply being actively unemployed and looking for work.

Seriously though, one must wonder what caliber of door-knockers they will get if it being outsourced to a private company, where you are basically hiring people looking for work rather than partisan volunteers that typically deal with the FTF voter interactions.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Safe D Oregon EV numbers appear to still indicate a massive Democratic/Republican enthusiasm gap that seems favor the Democrats:

Metro PDX----

Dems continue to perform significantly well with EVs in the Democratic strongholds of Multonmah and Washington Counties. Clackamas (The only potential swing Portland County)  is currently rolling at (49-36-15 D-R-I) vs RV numbers of (39-33-38) D-R-I. Also, Dems still holding a narrow EV lead in Yamhill County (~20%+ Latino) despite a 4k Rep RV lead... (Also on my flip list)



Mid-Valley---

Marion- Dems curently holding a 2.7k lead in a county where RV numbers are only  +0.6k D in one of the largest Latino Counties in the state. Marion continiues to be on my '08 Obama/'12 Romney/ Clinton '16 flip list.

Polk---- Dems hold a 600 vote EV lead in a county with a 1.2k Rep RV lead. Long been on my 2016 flip list (Again Mid-Valley county with a lot of Latinos and some college kids out in Monmouth).

Linn- Should be a Republican stronghold, but Dems outperforming Rep EV vs RV numbers, with a large number of Indies, including many Latinos that appear to be voting at higher numbers than normal.

Benton- College county where most Indies vote Dem, D turnout is +10 over RV, Rep turnout is stagnant vs RV.

Lane- Mix of college, rural, and mill towns. (D) are +3.9% of Ev vs RV, (R) is +0.6% EV/RV.

Coastal Oregon:

Dems still holding on extremely well, even in places like Tillamook and Columbia Counties where the mythical Reagan Democrats might miraculously resurrect themselves from the graves....

Southern Oregon

Douglas County--- Reps outperforming EV vs RV numbers in classic Timber Country, as I long suspected. FWIW (This county was a 47-53% Bush Sr County in '88) and swung hard Republican as a result of the Oregon Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Coos County--- Dems still hold an EV lead of 700 votes, despite a Rep 800 vote RV lead, in what used to be one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, going back to the New Deal and the days of the Union.... I would not be surprised to see Coos come back home after several decades in the wilderness, although I still have it as a Lean Trump county.

Jackson County--- Reps lead RV by 2.7k here and today managed for the first time in EV to eke out a narrow (600) vote lead. All being said, this is a county where Indies tend to Lean D in GEs, and is on my flip list as an Obama '08/Romney '12/Clinton '16 County.

Josephine County--- enough said. See notes on Douglas County above, but throw in a weird Cali Middle-Class Tax revolt movement from the late '70s that doesn't believe that the county should pay for cops, and yeah.... positive EV/RV numbers for Trump here.

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Haven't spent too much time looking on the data out here but....

Deschutes County--- Reps lead +2.5% on RVs, but Dems actually lead in EV, in one of the wealthiest counties in Oregon home to a lot of educated Cali retirees... Also on my list of Obama '08/Romney '12/ Clinton '16 flip counties.

Wasco County--- Blue Collar County on the Columbia River over the Cascade Mountain Range, that used to sometimes vote Dem/Rep for Pres.... Although it didn't vote for Obama in '08 RV numbers are +3.5% D and EV number are +6.0 D.  Likely coming back home as a result of the Trump train and a growing Latino population in the Gorge, and most Oregonians aren't haters...

Umatilla & Malheur Counties---- These counties are a trip, since on the one hand you have traditionally heavily Republican parts of the state, but on the other hand you also have a large and rapidly growing Latino population, as well as an extremely sizeable Mormon population...

What's interesting here isn't as much the (D) and (R) numbers, but actually not only the huge number of independent voters that appear to be voting at much higher levels of Indies than most parts of the state....

Still curious about this, but suspect that many Indie voters in these counties are Latinos, and am extremely interested in looking at county level results after the final votes are in to see if there is a significant Republican defection in some of these counties that are >10% Mormon as well.

[NOVA Green]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXd8ZrP8H6Y

haha yes, i told my friend at the ny times i want him to set me up on a date with him :-)
his response: so does every other gay man in nyc :-(

Is Mook gay?

First openly gay major campaign manager

Awesome!!!

Didn't know that, and his private life is his own business, but always happy to see people come out, without fear of retribution in their professional careers as well.

[NOVA Green]

colorado unaff are dem-leaning.

high education-state.

Pretty much this.... more like Indies in the Portland Oregon Metro area, and parts of the Mid-Valley.

Colorado, is rapidly becoming more like many other Western states, where Moderate Republicans>Indies>Vote Dem for many GE candidates....

We saw this train back in the late '80s/'90s in the Pacific Northwest, as well as New Mexico and California for different reasons....

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Solid Democratic Oregon:

Updates posted for ballots returned through EOB 11/2:

+120k New votes with total for 36.6% turnout (878k ballots cast).

Total ballots to date are:

EV (48.4 D- 34.6 R- 17.0 I) vs RV (41.4D- 30.0 R- 28.6 I)

Enthusiasm gap appears to continue for Republicans in Oregon with % of of EV vs RV numbers by party.

(43.1-42.4-21.9 D-R-I).

This is an extremely unusual phenomenon in Oregon and of the (22) of (36) counties  on my list, Republicans lead in EV turnout numbers only only four (Curry, Josephine, Umatilla, and Malheur) and even lag in heavily Republican Counties that typically vote 60-40+ Republican, where one would expect Trump's message to resonate (Douglas & Linn).

Metro- Portland:

Multnomah- EV (68D-16 R-16* I) vs RV (69D-16R-15I) with % of EV turnout by party (41.4 D-
40.3 R- 22.0 I). This is the breadbasket of Democratic votes in Oregon with >20% of the total statewide vote, and responsible for Dems having won all statewide elections for decades. Romney/McCain barely won 21% of the County vote in '08/'12 vs Bush Jr with 27% in '04. Trump won only 55% of the Republican Primary vote running unopposed in mid-May (Kasich 23%).... I would not be surprised to see Trump end up with only 15-18% of the vote this year.

Clackamas- EV (47D- 36 R- 17 I) vs RV (39D- 33 R- 28 I). % of EV turnout by Party (40D-36R-20I).
Classic "swing county Oregon" that has a mixture of some of wealthiest suburbs of Portland, with a large Middle-Class and Blue-Collar contingent in suburban, rural and exurban county. Trump garnered 61% of the R vote in the primaries, and overall total county turnout is only 32.7%, one of the lowest in the state, and extremely unusual for a county in Metro PDX.

Washington- EV (50D-32R-19I) vs RV (42D-28R-30I). % of EV by Party (42D-38R-22I).

One of the most rapidly growing counties in the state, home to two two Fortune 100 Companies (Nike & Intel), and also one of the most diverse counties in Oregon with Americans from a wide range of counties of origin. 2016 (R) primaries (Trump 56- Kasich- 22). Indies tend to vote heavily Democratic here (McCain/Romney) 38/40% respectively. i would not be shocked to see Clinton win closer to a 2:1 margin here...

Yamhill- EV (41D-41*R-23I) vs RV (33D-37R-30I). % of EV by Party (45D-41R-23I).

Rapidly growing Exurban County, with a large Latino population whose children go to the same schools as Anglo kids in the small towns and rural areas here, and although Reps have finally taken a narrow EV lead, the Indie voter turnout is the highest in Metro-PDX, and still looking like a Dem '16 flip county.

Mid-Willamette Valley

Marion- EV (43D-41R- 16I) vs RV (35*D-35R- 30I). % of EV by Party (44D-43R-19I)

Another "swing county" and again (D) turnout is surpassing (R) turnout in a county with a large number of Latinos.

Polk- EV (42D-42*R-16I) vs RV (35D-38R-27I). % of EV by Party (46D-43R-22I)

See notes above for Yamhill, but also has a large college community, as well as a Democratic base in West Salem.

Linn- EV (37D-45R-18I) vs RV (38D-44R-18I). % of EV by Party (42D-41R-23I).

This should be Trump country where one might expect to see a Democratic "enthusiasm gap" in a plus +11/16 (McCain/Romney) area, with a ton of WWC voters.... It is interesting to actually see registered Democrats voting at higher numbers than RV Reps.... still not sure what is happening here, but suspect that Trump isn't making the case in places like Albany, where Anglos and Latinos work in the same freeze-fry plants, USW jobs, and commute to work in Corvallis and Salem....

Benton- EV (57D-27R-17I) vs RV (49D-25R-25I). % of EV by Party (44D-39R-25I).

Heavily college town mixed with Tech sector works and professionals. Trump only won 55% of the Rep vote running unopposed, and Indies and even many registered Reps skew Left. I would be surprised to see Trump crack over 30% of the vote here, and quite likely create a new record Dem margin in a county that actually used to vote for Republicans for President even back in the days of Ronald Reagan.

Lane- EV (55D-30R-15I) vs RV (46D-27R-27I). % of EV by Party (39D-37R-19I).

Turnout is unusually low across the board (33% to date) that doesn't mirror results we are seeing elsewhere in Oregon. This is typically a 60-40% (D) county in national elections, and although most think of this as the home of the University of Oregon, there is also an extremely large rural population and a ton of WWC workers in the timber mills. We'll see how this trend plays out and if it indicates a Trump surge in Southern Oregon.

Coastal Oregon:

Columbia- EV (47D-34R-21I) vs RV (39D-31R-30I). % of EV by Party (42D-38R-21I).

This should be the classic home of the mythical "Reagan Democrat".... A deeply ancestral New Deal Democratic Union county that more often than not votes Republican in statewide elections, and even the much maligned Nate Silver considers to be representative of the decline of WWC voters statewide. Now there is a decent argument that many (D)s shifted to (I)s over the past few decades, but the EV turnout levels appear to indicate that even here many Republicans and Republican leaning Indies aren't buying the Trump train.

Clatsop- EV (49D-32R-20I) vs RV (41D-29R-29*I). % of EV by Party (47D-44R-26I).

Small coastal community heavily dominated by logging, fishing, and tourism, with a high % of retirees. Also, home to one of the largest Community Colleges in the NorthCoast of Oregon. Indies tend to break 60-40 (D) in GEs and less so in statewide elections.

Tillamook- EV (47D-37R-16I) vs RV (38D-33R-29I). % of EV by Party (48D-37R-16I).

Another small coastal county with logging, fishing, and farming (dairy) with tourism being a much smaller component because of the remote location compared to major metro areas. Trump actually did quite well in the primary (68%) and this is one of those counties that went twice for George Jr and then narrowly Obama twice as well. Good chance that there are some ancestral Dems that switched to Indie that might be receptive to Trump. Still EV numbers looking extremely impressive for the Dems.

Lincoln- EV (50D-31R-19I) vs RV (42D-27R-31I). % of EV by Party (53D-52R-27I).

Another coastal county with logging, fishing, and tourism being dominant, but also has one of the highest % of 65+ in the state. This is a county where Republicans are rapidly becoming extinct, outside of a few large metro areas. Consistently 60-40+ (D) in GEs and also part of the six counties that always vote Dem in close statewide elections. Lincoln could well start moving towards a 2:1 (D) County if current trends continue....

Southern Oregon:

Douglas- EV (32D-52R-16I) vs RV (27D-44R-29I). % of EV by Party (49*D-49R-24I).

Finally some good news for Republicans in Oregon! However, unfortunately, apparently they aren't as enthusiastic as usual and Democrats actually lead so far as a % of voter turnout by Party. Again there might be some ancestral reg Dems voting Trump in a county where Dukakis actually won almost 47%, but I'm still a bit shocked that Dems are turning out in higher numbers here.

Coos- EV (41*D-41R-18I) vs RV (34D-36R-30I). % of turnout by party (49D-46R-24I).

This is yet another New Deal ancestral Dem county, where one should expect Trump to be out-performing (77% R- Primary), but yet enthusiasm appears to be stronger for the Dems. Again, one could make an argument that many of these Indies are backing Trump, but still doesn't explain why Dems are still leading in a county where Reps hold an RV lead.

Josephine- EV (32D-51R-17I) vs RV (28D-42R-30I). % of Party turnout (46D-48R-22I).

Finally, another county with good news for Trump in all metrics. idk if Trump will actually outperform Romney/McCain margins vs Obama here, but still signs look good here for Reps.

Jackson- EV (41D-43R-16I) vs RV (35D-37R-28I). % of Party turnout (48D-47R-23I).

On surface EV numbers might appear decent for Reps, but this is a narrow '08 Obama County and Indies tend to skew Dem, especially down in the college and tourist town Ashland, and yet again Dems lead as a % of party turnout to date....

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Deschutes- EV (41D-42R-18I) vs RV (35D-37R-28I). % of EV turnout by party ID (47D-46R-25I).

Indies are fickle out here, and Dem % of turnout looks good in a county that could easily go either way.

Wasco- EV (43D-38R-19I) vs RV (36D-32*R-32I). % of EV turnout by party ID (48D-47R-24I).

Lots of Indies out here in a WWC Columbia River Gorge county.... EV vs RV numbers look good for Dems, as well as greater Dem enthusiasm... We'll see what happens, but will def be watching this on ED to see if it flips back (D) for the first time in awhile.

Umatilla- EV (29D-49R-22I) vs RV (25D-39R-36I). % of EV turnout by party ID (44D-46R-22I).

Strange county that is both heavily Mormon and Latino... Wildcard county that I certainly don't expect to flip will be interesting to watch, especially with 36% registered Indies, one of the highest in the state.

Malheur- EV (23D-59R-19I) vs RV (19D-46R-35I). % of EV turnout by party ID (46D-46R-21I).

See Umatilla above, but less Latino....

Bottom line... Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout in most of Oregon, even in many counties where we would expect to see a Republican surge.

Additionally, even in the Blue Collar WWC counties in Oregon, there is not any indication that Trump is particularly popular, even in places like Douglas and Linn County that typically vote 60-40 Republican at the Presidential level, and frequently much higher for statewide races.

We will see what happens over the next few days, but I am still shocked to see that Republican Party turnout is lagging Democratic Party turnout almost everywhere in Oregon.

[NOVA Green]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

This is absolutely bizarre from the original quoted article:

"Under state law, any voter can challenge another county resident's registration, resulting in a hearing at which the challenger presents evidence, according to a state legal filing. If local officials find probable cause, the challenged voter is given notice of a subsequent hearing. A voter who doesn't rebut the evidence can be removed."

How can be this legit, particularly in a former Jim Crow state that a voter can be removed from the rolls simply on the testimony of another resident of the county? Also this whole concept of "undeliverable ballots" is completely bizarre to me. In Oregon, we can track the status of our mail ballot and estimated postal delivery date, report lost/stolen ballots to obtain a replacement, and drop off our ballots in any mailbox or ballot drop box anywhere in the state regardless of county.

 

[NOVA Green]

Clinton leads 48-43 in Colorado, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head match up just between her and Trump, she leads 50-45.

Clinton leads 46-41 in Michigan, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Clinton's lead grows slightly to 50/44 in a head to head between her and Trump.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Virginia, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 1%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. Her leads grows slightly to 51/45 in a head to head between her and Trump.

NH +3
NEVADA +3
NC +2
PA +4
WI +7

publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/11/clinton-leads-by-5-in-firewall-states.html

Welcome to the forum and congrats on your first post!

[NOVA Green]

When does early voting end in CO?

never, since it's mail-only.

How does their VbM work? Is it like Oregon where ballots need to be received in the mail by ED, or California where ballots need to be postmarked by ED?

Also, do they have ballot drop sites liberally distributed throughout every county, or do they need to be  mail or delivered to the county election office/courthouse?

[NOVA Green]

The white vote is up in many states like AZ, NV, FL, NC, and TX.
Who are these white voters?
According to both sides, democrats are drawing new voters, republicans are drawing repeat voters somewhat. These less likely voters won't be picked up in the polls of likely voters.

The Washingtin post had an article on 10/27 entitled "How the
early vote is shaping up in Texas, Nevada, and Florida".
They cleary show in their charts that these new voters are coming from democratic TX and NV counties 2 to 1 suggesting Hillary voters maybe. But today they mention white vote surging in FL and make no mention of what counties these votes are coming from.
It would seem to me that if these white voters are likely decide this election, they should mention," Hey 60% are coming from democratic leaning counties or something". Doesn't  mean they will vote any which way but for the sake if transparency...

Welcome to the Forum Goldwater!

There are a lot of different items you mentioned in your post, but yeah unfortunately it gets frustrating for political geeks like all of us, in that each state has different reporting information, partisan identification, etc... so that's why many of us love Atlas is we can share the data that others have crunched, crunch the data we can that has not been crunched elsewhere, and debate about what it actually means all at the same time!

I'm not sure about your source on White voter turnout being higher, and obviously a major of Latinos identify as "White" for their race, and "Latino" for their ethnicity, so could be confusing right on that front.

I'm assuming you are talking about Anglos ("White" non-Latinos)? If so, obviously total turnout will be higher in fast growing areas of the Sunbelt for all populations that are expanding in population, but then the other metric to look at is percentage of increase of the voting population, compared to total amount of eligible voters is where we are seeing some interesting data this year regarding the "Latino Surge".

So yes--- best to just sift through the data we're seeing, take a look at US Census data, past county and precinct level elections returns etc... since the MSM doesn't always dig into an Uber level of geekdom since they are writing articles for a larger audience.

[NOVA Green]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

I don't want to clog up the thread on this topic, so maybe someone should open or bump another thread where we can discuss this further, but I guarantee that if this were an issue in the first 100% VbM state in the country, it would be all over as a topic of conversation.

I won't comment further on this particular thread on that topic, but the real issue here is that many of these 4,500 voters in North Carolina that are heavily African-American in the Eastern part of the state (Jesse Helms country) will likely have their right to vote reinstated, and if NC comes down to a few thousand vote difference (Think FL 2000) these early votes could actually have a real impact.

[NOVA Green]

@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY

Last two days of early voting in NC have been very good for Dems, per our estimates. Lots of irregular Clinton vt

So if I read this graph correctly, and it hurts my aging eyes...

Basically Nate Cohn is currently predicting an NC +6C win and that 55% of the electorate has already voted?

[NOVA Green]

Non-Swing State Oregon Update through 11/3 (95k new voters ). Total Votes to date (47.8D-34.9R-17.3I) and Turnout (47.7D-48.0R-25.1I) for a current 41.0% total statewide turnout to date.

Republicans appear to be picking up on the enthusiasm gap statewide, as are Indies that tend to vote much more heavily Democratic than Republican in Oregon overall.

Overall County turnout levels are significantly lagging in Metro-Portland (38% RV turnout) vs "downstate" counties in the Mid-Valley (42%), Coastal Oregon (44%), Southern Oregon (45%).

Still Democratic turnout levels continue to exceed Republican turnout levels in (15) of the (22) counties on my list with flips since my last update in Linn, Lincoln, Douglas, and Curry).

However overall turnout by Party ID was a net gain for Republicans in all but (3) of the (22) counties on my list (Washington, Yamhill, and Curry).

Not a bad day for Democratic turnout in Oregon overall with the growth of Indie votes, but definitely a good day for Republicans in terms of not only taking an actual lead in turnout levels statewide, but actually taking a narrow turnout lead in some heavily Republican Counties in Southern and Western Oregon, as well as am EV lead by Party ID in some traditional "swing" counties in statewide elections.

[NOVA Green]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

Look at the 2014 numbers.  The Friday morning before election day, total turnout was 1.15 million.  Total turnout ended up at 2 million.  A whole lot of votes are about to come in this weekend and on Tuesday.  If 2014 is any indication, Democrats wait until the last minute in Colorado to drop off their ballots.

Tender---

With all due respect it appears that you don't understand how VbM states work, including transitional VbM states like Colorado.

The vast majority of votes do come in over the weekend, and usually the greatest numbers are on ED itself, although granted Colorado is an imperfect version of Oregon when it comes to their voting systems and turnout levels.

[NOVA Green]

We'll see if it shakes out in the data but Marc Caputo keeps on talking to Cuban Republicans who defected to Clinton and sees a significant Clinton/Rubio vote in Miami

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795411822769766406

That's expected. What's surprising is he's seeing 60/40 for Clinton/Trump among Cuban Republicans. That's scary. Southern Florida will be a bloodbath for Trump on Tuesday.

Trump isn't even going to win the Republican-friendly Cuban-American vote in Florida and yet the LA Times poll thinks he's at 42%% with Latinos nationally. Lol.

lots of Silencio Hispanic Tromploco votantes

That made me laugh so hard, I almost spit out my beer, although maybe a little more Spanglish lessons might be required.

Was travelling for most of the day and just logged in, and see some really interesting numbers coming in from Florida, and there is still another hour and thirty minutes in Miami-Dade.

Any of our residents know when we will see final official EV numbers from Florida for today, and cumulative numbers through EOD, or will we need to wait until tomorrow when the SoS compiles all of the county data? Assuming Steve will probably continue to post updates today since he's basically working 24 hours a day through the end-game.....

[NOVA Green]

Robby Mook did say he believes Clinton is ahead by about 170k in FL. This point in 2012, he said the Obama campaign thought they were down 15k. I don't believe it's in the bag for Clinton but it's definitely looking good.

He thinks they are making +140k today?

I suspect the lion's share of that 170k is if you take 50k Dixiecrats off the Dem list and add the 50k to the Rep number, that is a net difference of EV numbers of 100k compared to 2012....

Obviously his numbers of Dixiecrats are much better based upon macro data level analysis of voter history, party registration, and turnout levels, etc....

[NOVA Green]

I think the main question that will linger in my mind after this election is whether Trump has permanently mobilized Latinos, or whether they'll sink back down to their previous turnout levels in future presidential elections.

Well, they always say that California is the state that sets national trends, and we've seen what has happened there since Prop 187 in 1994. Certainly at least a possibility something similar happens nationwide.

THIS.... been saying it four years, and it appears this year we are not only seeing it in Nevada, but also even in Arizona and Texas.

Florida is its own bag because of the historical dominance of the Cuban-American community, and the extremely recent explosion of Puerto Rican Americans leaving the Island as a result of the extreme negligence of the Federal Government over decades, combined with an increased Afro-Carribbean community hasn't gotten any love or respect from Florida Republicans ever, in what used to be the Right Southern anchor of the sunbelt.

[NOVA Green]

So, based on this it looks like ME-02 might still be on the table for Dems.

I still have it as a tossup (Trump) EV but now that Clinton's national poll numbers are improving slightly think it is more likely to be a tossup (Clinton) EV.

I still consider ME-02 to be like a mixture of parts of my home state of Oregon, with many jobs dependent upon timber, fishing, and tourism, albeit in a New England setting.

Thanks for the update btw.... ME-02 is trending in the correct direction.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update:

Major dump of EVs basically covering weekend ballots received, so our SoS site lags by one day.

1.3 Million Ballots received  (50.3% turnout) with 227k returned over the weekend alone, and Oregon looks to have a record turnout level with Monday and Tuesday numbers to be counted.

Breakdown (47D-35R-18I) and turnout levels of RV/EV (58.0D-58.1R-32.2I.)

Turnout gap continues to be an issue with Reps, although they had a significant improvement and now Dems only exceed Rep turnout percentages in 13/22 counties on my watch list.

Main story is a dramatic increase in Indy RV turnout from 17.3% on Fri to 32.2% as of Mon AM. Dems increased their turnout levels +10.2% RV/EV vs Republicans +13.3% RV/EV.

Good news for Reps is that they increased turnout levels beyond Dem turnout levels in 17/22 counties on my watch list.

Bad news: indy voter turnout is increasingly dramatically and heavily Dem in many counties  at a GE level.

Metro-PDX:

Multnomah County--- Dem turnout 57% vs Rep 55% to date.... (+122kD EV). Indie turnout is now 33% and typically breaks 2:1 (D) in Presidential Elections. Dem turnout from Friday to Monday actually exceeded Rep turnout, and look for the margins to be racked up further tomorrow.

Clackamas Co.---  Dem turnout (59%) vs Rep (58%) (+10kD EV). Reps are starting to finally catchup to Dem turnout levels in a key upper-income / rural "swing county" in statewide elections, that is actually traditionally competitive for moderate Reps in a Presidential Election. (TO RV/EV #s vs Friday numbers (+14.7%D- +17.3%R- +10.7%I).

Washington Co--- Turnout (56.7%D-54.5%R-33%I). (+28kD EV). Indies swing heavily (D) in this multi-ethnic suburban PDX county.... Still predicting this county might actually vote 2:1 Democrat for an historic number.

Yamhill Co--- Dems still hold a turnout lead in one of the historically Rep Counties here.. (Turnout RV/EV (55.7D- 52.1R-29.7I). These are insane numbers.... and representative of the rapidly growing Latino population (16% of the county) as well as a mix of educated Anglos from the college kids of McMinville, not to mention adults that have kids in public schools with Latino friends and neighbors. Still consider Yamhill to be a (D) flip for the first time in decades...


Mid-Willamette Valley

Marion Co--- (Turnout RV/EV (55D-56R-27I). Reps have now taken a narrow lead in EV numbers by 200 votes in a county where Dems lead by 600 RV. It is a traditional "swing county" in statewide elections, but also a county with an extremely large Latino population (26%) with many voters registered as Independent, and also as a predominately working-class county, voters tend to turn in their ballots only a day or two before Election Day. Definitely a county to watch on Election Day.

Polk Co.---- (Turnout RV/EV (56D-54R-30I). Dems are still holding onto a significant turnout lead in a traditionally Republican leaning county. Just like neighboring Yamhill Co, Republicans had a minimal turnout increase vs Dems. Again, this is a county where the "Latino Surge" will likely create a county flip, not necessarily as much as a result of the Latino population, but instead as a mix of swings in West Salem, combined with college students in Monmouth-Independence and educated Anglos, combined with working-class Anglos.

Linn Co---- (Turnout RV/LV) (58D-59R-32I). This *should* be natural Trump country as a heavily blue-collar county that is heavily "White Working Class" and lower rates of college education than many other parts of the state. I'll go out on a limb and predict that Clinton will win Albany (54-46) and keep it close in Lebanon (47-53) and lose the county by +12 based on heavily rural parts of the county. Personal disclosure, I have several grandkids going to Pre-K and Elementary Schools in Albany, as well as friends that worked in the freeze-dried food processing plants out there, and again this is an (18%) Latino county where all of our kids and grandkids go to the same schools and anti-Latino racism is becoming so 1980s...

Benton Co--- (Turnout RV/LV) (61D-56R-37I).

This is one of the most interesting numbers in all of Oregon. It is not only a heavily Millennial County, but additionally has one of the highest rates of college degrees of any counties in the state.

Obama actually lost support significantly between '08 and '12, and it appears that EV numbers will likely have much higher turnout levels than in '08 as a result of a Republican who is the worst match for college educated Anglos in history in an overwhelmingly Anglo County, although it does have one of the highest percentages of Asian-Americans (6%) in Oregon outside of a few other places like Washington County.

Still thinking that this could be a 3:1 Clinton County once the final numbers are in considering that this is ground zero for Republican defections and a massive Indie swing (Typically 60-40D).

Lane Co--- Turnout still lagging well below statewide averages (57D-56R- 31I). Indies typically break 2:1 (D) here, but there is a potential Trump effect with disaffected ancestral WWC Dems in Timber country, and a county where to this day there are a significant amount of jobs directly and indirectly related to the logging industry. This will be an interesting county to watch on election night to see if Trump is able to outperform previous Republican nominees, especially in places like rural & small town Eastern, Southern, and Western Lane Co.

Coastal Oregon---

One would imagine this would be a part of the state that would swing hard towards Trump, since it is overwhelmingly WWC voters and an extremely high percentage of retirees.

Columbia Co--- Ground zero of the "Reagan Democrats" has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the state to date (44% ballots cast). Dems are actually holding a (46D-35R-19I) lead to date and still in terms of enthusiasm/turnout levels (52D-50R-27I). Not a good sign for Trump's chances in OR/WA and somehow bringing back WWC Union Voters into the Republican coalition. Current turnout numbers are (46D-35R-19I).

Clatsop Co--- RV/EV turnout levels (59D-55R-33I). Dems currently lead by +16% in EVs  Indie numbers are starting to move off the charts in a rural fishing-loggining-retiree county, but also home to a large chunk of Millennial voters attending Clatsop Community College.

Tillamook Co--- RV/EV Turnout (65D-62R-32I). This should be a classic Trump flip county with a ton of WWCs, as well as many working/middle class retirees. Went for Obama twice after going Republican for George W. twice.... One could make an argument that this is still a home of fictional Reagan Democrats, and demographically it should fit the Trump base. Current EV turnout (46D-38R-17I).

Lincoln Co--- RV/EV TO (68D-70R-39I). Home to one of the highest percentages of retirees on the Oregon Coast, but has become a heavily Democratic County over the years. Current EV (49D-31R-20I)  and the indies typically swing heavily (D) in a county home to one of the largest fishing centers of the Oregon Coast, as well as a major timber mill down the Bay in Toledo, and also Lincoln City that is heavily based upon tourism with a large 1st Nation Casino (Chinook Winds).

Southern Oregon

This should be ultimate Trump county, being not only heavily White Working Class, with an extremely small percentage of ethnic minorities, as well as a statewide Republican stronghold since the days of the Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Douglas Co---- RV/EV (62D-62*R-32I). Early returns (31D-52R-17I). Not anywhere close to a flip county, despite Dukakis winning 46% back in '88, but the weekend numbers show an interesting result where in an overwhelming Republican, older county, heavily Vietnam era vets, Dems are actually outpacing Rep turnout levels after the busiest day to date in terms of Oregon ballot returns.

Coos Co---RV/EV (62D-61R-33I). Early returns (7.9kD-8,3kR-3.7I). Still thinking Coos will stay (R) for Trump, it is interesting that in a New Deal solid Union county, Trump is not cleaning the clock, even with Republicans. I'm actually starting to wonder if Clinton will significantly outperform Obama/Kerry/Gore numbers in certain parts of Southern Oregon where Bill Clinton is still extremely popular on economic issues, as well as picking "Option Nine" when it came to the settlement of the Oregon Timber Wars, that provided all types of economic revitalization for depressed timber communities in Oregon.

Curry Co- RV/EV (67D-67*R-37I). EVs are (35D-46R-19I). Home to the greatest percentage of retirees in Oregon (32% 65+) but still a county with a relatively high rate of college-educated retirees, although the overall flavor of the county is still definitely blue.

Josephine Co--- RV/EV (67D-63R-31I). EVs are (31D-51R-18I). Am a bit confused on this one honestly, even though my wife grew up down here. One of the few counties where Dem turnout surged over the weekend (+16D- +9%R- +5% I) in what is essentially the stronghold of the Republican Party in Southern Oregon.... I'm assuming it's a vote gap and the numbers will readjust tomorrow, but if Republican turnout lags Dem turnout when we get to Election Day, it's a major sign that OR-02 CD is in jeopardy in 2018/2020.

Jackson Co--- RV/EV (56D-55R-28I). EVs are (41D-43R-17I). This is an Obama '08/Romney '12 county that I think will become a Clinton '16 County. It is a mixture of an overwhelmingly college/artist town (Ashland) thrown in with a mix of Middle-Class Cali retirees (Medford) that vote Republican and then throw in rural areas including heavily Republican farming/logging areas with some smaller areas of "getting back to the land", and then some heavily historically mill towns with a ton of old timers, and it is not a natural recipe for Clinton. Still, see my other comments about Southern Oregon counties above and either Trump's message doesn't really play down South, or there are a ton of Sanders/Trump cross-over votes, OR indies tend to swing a bit Rep in Douglas, Coos, Josephine and slightly (D) in Jackson.


Eastern/Central Oregon:

Deschutes Co--- RV/EV (66D-66R-40I). Reps narrowly take the lead on partisan turnout. Indies tend to be a bit flip-floppy in both National and statewide elections, but a ton of college educated Anglo retirees and Cali expats chilling out there.  Still on my Clinton '16 flip list.

Wasco Co--- RV/EV (58D-60R-30I). Total EV (42D-39R-19I).

Umatilla & Malheus- The question is not if they will flip, but what the final margins will be in two counties that (24% and 33% Latino respectively) and also about 10% Mormon.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update through 11/7/16.

Looking on track for record total voter turnout numbers, and even possibly a record total turnout percentage.

Total ballots returned 1,457,000 with the busiest return day (Election Day) not included:

(D)- 679k (46.6%)- (R) 499k (34.2%)- (I) 279k (19.1).

Republicans increased their party turnout level and total turnout now stands at 60.7%.

(D)- 68.8% turnout; (R) 69.7% turnout; (I) 40.9% turnout.

Key updates:

Democrats continue to hold a 1.5-2% turnout lead in the four counties of Metro-Portland (Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, and Yamhill, Appears to be a major enthusiasm gap for Republicans there. Indie turnout levels in Portland should be concerning for Republicans.

Republicans expanded the turnout gap in Marion and Linn counties, and took a narrow lead in heavily Democratic Lane County. Dem turnout numbers in Benton County are through the roof, in a heavily Democratic College community.

Democrats continue to lead in turnout in the Oregon Coastal counties, which does not appear to be a good sign for Trump's appeal to older WWC residents in a blue collar and retiree part of the state.

Southern Oregon numbers look good for Trump in heavily Republican Douglas and Josephine Counties, although Coos and Curry are looking like they might be closer than expected. Jackson County numbers are more mixed, and I expect to see a surge of same day voting from heavily Democratic Ashland (College town).

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Democratic turnout looking a bit depressed in Malheur and Umatilla, as is independent turnout. Although these are heavily Republican counties, they are on my radar because of the large Latino populations, as well as significant Mormon populations.

Deschutes County still looking like it will be close, and as a heavily college educated White county, this is a place where I would not be surprised to see flip this election (Although we might not know since it takes weeks to count the final votes in Oregon).

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update:

Based upon the latest Oregon Secretary of State update, Oregon has a new record in total General Election Votes cast- 2,022,000 votes (The previous high was 1,845,251 in 2008) and an 11% increase over 2012 total turnout.

Although overall voter turnout percentages is lower than since any GE election since 1996, this is largely as a result of automatic DMV voter registration (With an opt out clause), so basically almost every Oregon adult US citizen that renews or requests a driver's license is automatically registered to vote....

Overall Voter registration surged from 2012 (2.2 Million) to almost (2.6 Million) as a direct result of the new law.

Turnout levels to date are at 78.9% of Registered Voters, which is a bit lower than I expected, but I had not adjusted for the impact of a ton of new registered voters  on the overall voter turnout percentages, although it does certainly account for at least 50% of the historic vote increase.

Meanwhile Statewide: Turnout levels by Party affilitation---

Democrats (86.6% turnout)- Republicans (88.1% turnout)- Independents (59.3% turnout).

Total vote turnout by the three major party registrations as a percentage of the total vote of these three registered categories ( I have not been including minor parties in these stats):

Democrats (45.2%)- Republicans (33.4%)- Independents (21.4%).

I'll probably shift over to the 2016 GE Results Page to go into more specifics of Oregon related election results and data, now that the GE is over, but still seemed relevant to post turnout related items on this thread.

Haven't looked at California yet, but that could be an interesting study in EV and turnout levels as well....