absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BlueSwan]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Exactly. I prefer voting in the booth. But obviously voter registration should be automatic, there should be plenty of chances of early voting in all states, there should not be a voter ID requirement unless voter ID's are issued automatically and there should be loads of polling places.

[BlueSwan]

CNN are painting a bright picture for Trump here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVpSksvTea8&feature=youtu.be

[BlueSwan]

One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

[BlueSwan]

One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

It isn't. NM is a special case in closeness due to Johnson still having a good chunk of the vote, but those will break for HRC in the end. In any case, Trump has never led there either.

Good point. Forgot about Johnson for a moment there. The election is getting to me - can't think clearly anymore.

[BlueSwan]

One thing that makes me sceptical of the seemingly good EV results for dems in NV, FL and CO, is that you would think that this would be reflected in polls. If lots of low propensity voters were showing up for Clinton, that should make polls move rather dramatically in Clintons direction because pollsters usually ask people if they have already voted. Instead, what the polls seem to be saying is that Clinton has a huge advantage with early voters, but that this is countered by an equally big Trump advantage amongst expected election day voters.

I guess I am just very cautious about concluding anything based on what we have seen so far. The only thing I think I will conclude is that we are not in for a Trump landslide, but that has been clear since the beginning.

[BlueSwan]

One thing that makes me sceptical of the seemingly good EV results for dems in NV, FL and CO, is that you would think that this would be reflected in polls. If lots of low propensity voters were showing up for Clinton, that should make polls move rather dramatically in Clintons direction because pollsters usually ask people if they have already voted. Instead, what the polls seem to be saying is that Clinton has a huge advantage with early voters, but that this is countered by an equally big Trump advantage amongst expected election day voters.

I guess I am just very cautious about concluding anything based on what we have seen so far. The only thing I think I will conclude is that we are not in for a Trump landslide, but that has been clear since the beginning.

Better than your usual outright doom and gloom. You're missing a few key points...

Well, I currently have Clinton as a 70% favourite to win - just wrote a long Facebook post in danish explaining my overall takeaways from early voting - so I am not THAT pessimistic. But yeah, I'm scared of Trump and the uneducated white vote.