absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[izixs]

Ohio news: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton Counties made up 28% of the early vote in '12.

This year, they've made up 31% of the early vote, with Franklin County making up the biggest difference. A lot more infrequent voters showing up early this year.

Great news to hear that OH is recovering nicely.

And we still got a few more days of early voting to go!

[izixs]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

So like 75% of 2012's totals. Nice.

[izixs]

I like the idea of national mail in voting even if it might hurt my party, I love high voter turnout, I'm a weirdo lol

There's nothing weird about supporting a more complete democracy. Or at least it shouldn't be.

[izixs]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

As for Nevada, first it doesn't make sense to compare the numbers the include Friday with those that don't. And what more, yes, the raw vote margin even without Friday's numbers there has a small raw vote gap between dems and reps (around half as you noted), its perhaps illustrative to compare still to the total vote from 2012 which had a 60k difference. So losing 10k from that isn't the end of the world (assuming all other things being equal, which they aren't). Finally, mail in ballots, though fewer in number, are looking more even between parties instead of a R win.

So... there's some serious gaps in seriously's analysis, or lack there of. Tis a reason I have him on ignore...

[izixs]

So while looking for useful information from my home county here in Ohio like early voting turnout and the like, I ran across the voter walk lists. And to my surprise it had me down as a republican. Which is odd given that in any of the primaries I've participated in since moving here I've voted in the democratic primary.

This might explain why no one from the Clinton campaign has contacted me. But it does really make me wonder if there's been others 'flipped' on this listing besides me. Not saying its biased one way or another, but given that the county as a whole is almost entirely controlled by Republicans, if there is an intentional action on this, its pretty clear which way it would run.

So yeah, kind of weird.

[izixs]

Does anyone have any more numbers out of Iowa?

Accepted/returned ballots as of today (?):

Democrats 238,029   42.1%   
Republicans 196,611 34.8%   
Independents 128,875  22.8%

And FYI, the two latest Iowa polls, from Emerson and Loras, both show Clinton dominating the early vote:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx

Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 34
Stein - 4
Johnson - 3

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)

Dang, if this is true and the numbers hold, it kind of looks like Trump either is getting nothing from indies (unlikely) or there's tons of republican cross over votes.

[izixs]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Its instructive to look at the comparison (25%->35% for El Paso).

[izixs]

My sis lives in the southern gulf coast area of Florida. She describes it as heavy on old retirees and the like. So probably less interest in standing in early in person voting in general?

[izixs]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

So Ohio might be lost to nihilism?

Its improper to only look at absentee numbers in a state with early in person voting.

[izixs]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

Daniel Berman ‏@DanielBerman2  5m5 minutes ago
Worth noting, party ID in Ohio is determined by which primary you took part in. So GOP identification might be inflated this year by Kasich

Wow. I had no idea. My confidence in Hillary in Ohio just went up dramatically.

WOAH. Yeah I agree.

And heck, even then it doesn't always equate properly. I voted in the Democratic primary but my county has me down as a rep for some reason.