absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Holmes]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

Obama won Washoe in 2012 by almost 4%. I can see Clinton winning it by a modest 5% this year, with Clark going bigger for Clinton this year than in 2012, when Obama won it by about 15%. Washoe has a Republican registration advantage but it's becoming more Democratic. Ultimately, it's all up to turnout (but even more ultimately, the state is really decided by Clark county).

[Holmes]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

Obama won Washoe in 2012 by almost 4%. I can see Clinton winning it by a modest 5% this year, with Clark going bigger for Clinton this year than in 2012, when Obama won it by about 15%. Washoe has a Republican registration advantage but it's becoming more Democrat. Ultimately, it's all up to turnout (but even more ultimately, the state is really decided by Clark county).

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant in the early vote. Rs won the early vote by 500 votes in 2012. If Dems even break even in Washoe EV, Nevada's way over (which we already know from Clark).

Oh yeah, for sure. I feel like a lot of the registered indies in Washoe are younger and latino that vote Democratic (when they turn out), so Republicans would need a big early vote advantage to carry the county. There's only two more days of early voting left in the state and I feel like tomorrow will be another Republican victory but Friday will be a big push for Democrats in Washoe.

[Holmes]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.

Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?

Obama won the election day vote and very likely indies in Washoe. There's no reason to believe the same won't happen to Clinton seeing how early voting has been going in the state.

[Holmes]

People leaving the lines sucks but the more people early vote now, the less long the lines will be when they come back on election day.

[Holmes]

I like the idea of national mail in voting even if it might hurt my party, I love high voter turnout, I'm a weirdo lol

My husband and all my in-laws do voting by mail. It's so convenient. You get your ballot 3 weeks before the election and can fill it out and mail it right away. They're all on the "automatically send mail ballot" list so the ballots just come as soon as they're ready to go.

[Holmes]

Sorry, but Trump going to to campaign in Reno this weekend is a waste of time. There just aren't enough votes in Washoe to counter what's already cast in Clark and what's to come on election day.

[Holmes]

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Ralston says the 71k edge from 2012 could be matched. Assume it's locked on the presidential side.

What's odd for me is that he's been more positive for CCM than he was for Berkeley. Why? Heller still managed to win despite that margin to overcome.

Candidate Quality.  Heck got less votes than Romney, yet still won.  Berkeley was just horrible.

+ the electorate is more non-white than in 2012.

[Holmes]

If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

Uh, Clinton's D vote isn't gonna be less than Trump's R vote in Nevada. This isn't West Virginia, or Oklahoma, or Alabama.

[Holmes]

so where is Trump doing better than expected if he's not doing that well in Duval? Northern Florida? rural areas?

Turnout is high in SW Florida.

[Holmes]

NPAs who voted in Florida being less white and more Hispanic than the state at large is pretty interesting. Less black was obvious.

[Holmes]

The only thing to be cautious about is that some SW GOP counties (Collier, Lee) have really high turnout so far (50-60%+), whereas Democratic counties (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange) are all in the 40-50% range. Could be that reliable Republican votes in those SW counties are taking full advantage of the new VBM system and are cannibalizing their election day vote, in which case Clinton has a lot more room to grow come election day. Or maybe they're not.

[Holmes]

No way in hell that Clinton wins college educated whites by a larger margin than the national vote. No way. Either her national vote margin will be higher, or she won't win college educated whites by that large a margin.

[Holmes]

College educated whites are ground zero for any "shy Trump" effect.

Along with Hispanics, American-Indians and suburban women, yes.

[Holmes]

The Fort Lauderdale PD and Broward Sheriff's Department had to close a part of Sistrunk Avenue because of the massive turnout for Souls to the Polls (this is a good thing)!

https://twitter.com/browardpolitics/status/795340372687941636

I'm really excited to see how much Sunday adds to the Dem EV advantage.  It's mostly the high population Dem stronghold counties that have the polls open today.  The smaller Republican counties mostly ended early voting yesterday.

I can't believe Rick Scott allowed this to even happen. If African-Americans can reach 13% of the total electorate by the end of the day, that'd be great.

[Holmes]

Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV?  

I think it's hard to say. With the new VBM system, I think some of the reliable GOP e-day vote is voting by mail instead, especially in SW GOP counties, so that's already baked in. Turnout has been lower than the statewide average so far in much of the panhandle however, and they may show up on e-day instead (then again, there aren't many votes in the panhandle relative to southern Florida). So who knows.

[Holmes]

NC isn't ideal, but look at Nate Cohn's Upshot tracking. The demographics of the early vote ended up being basically what they predicted, and that was in a poll that showed Clinton winning the state by six points.

If Hillary wins the state in the 6% range even with lower African-American turnout, then North Carolina is Virginia 2.0 and it will only get worse for Republicans in the state as time moves forward.

(VP nominee Deborah Ross 2024)

[Holmes]

Still can't believe that Rick Scott allowed this extra Sunday of early voting to happen. It might bury Republicans in Duval.

[Holmes]

Still can't believe that Rick Scott allowed this extra Sunday of early voting to happen. It might bury Republicans in Duval.

Didn't the courts force it on him?

Hopefully the courts can force him into a prison cell too.

Noo, after Tuesday I never want to hear people call for their political opponents to be jailed ever again.

[Holmes]

Democrats just need about 70 more votes in Duval to have a 4k advantage.

[Holmes]

Broward's gonna railroad this thing.

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We might look back on Wednesday morning (or maybe even Tuesday night) and determine that Trump never really had a chance in Florida.

[Holmes]

Nothing say Atlas poster more than refreshing the Duval election board website every 10 minutes on a Sunday afternoon.

[Holmes]

7pm Duval update has D + 4,204.

[Holmes]

We'll see if it shakes out in the data but Marc Caputo keeps on talking to Cuban Republicans who defected to Clinton and sees a significant Clinton/Rubio vote in Miami

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795411822769766406

That's expected. What's surprising is he's seeing 60/40 for Clinton/Trump among Cuban Republicans. That's scary. Southern Florida will be a bloodbath for Trump on Tuesday.

[Holmes]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

This is very important.

I think turnout will be huge this year so I think it's just a lot more people coming out in general, not so much cannibalizing.

I think there is cannibalizing going on thanks to (and I hate to beat a dead horse here) Florida's new VBM rules. Reliable voters were automatically sent ballots, and those are mostly white, Republican voters, but Democrats took advantage of it too (which is why vote by mail turnout was so much higher this year). In this case, it's best to look at low-propensity voters - who they are, where they are, and how much they're turning out. And those numbers favor one candidate in Florida.

[Holmes]

Restrictions in early vote may account for lower African-American turnout in North Carolina, but I think Matthew also played a role as well. I think most of the missing African-American vote will turn out on election day.