absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Mehmentum]

My take away.  The drop in Democrats is due to dixiecrats finally changing their registration, it isn't actually bad new.  The unaffiliated demographics sound a lot like berniecrats.

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Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

Assessments are suggesting that Clinton is significantly over-performing that breakdown thanks to unaligned voters breaking for HRC

And, since it apparently needs to be said again.  Many dixiecrats have finally switched parties in the past 4 years, making a direct comparison inaccurate.

[Mehmentum]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

Actually, we do. Schale found 50,000 Republican early voters in 2016 who were registered as Democrats in 2012.

Not to mention, these voters were in parts of northern Florida that have very high Democratic registration levels, but always vote reliably Republican.

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I don't think Clinton is up by that much. It's lean D to be sure, but to say that Clinton already has it in the bag is just a little much, dux.

you got it wrong
trump has it in the bags

Lets it play it this way:

2012 D 893
2016 D 887

2012 R 585
2016 R 644

Clinton is underperforming Obama in 2012 at this point in early voting by some 70,000 votes. FYI Obama lost NC.

There's been a surge of dixiecrats finally switching their party registrations in the past 4 years.  This has led to Democrats losing registrations, but not actual voters.  In addition, the increase in unaffiliated early voters should be worrying to Republicans.  This group has demographics that are very strong for Democrats.

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This is a lot to read. Can someone summarize what the national map would look like based solely on the EV picture.

Nevada: Clinton is more or less a lock.
Colorado: Not quite as certain as Nevada, but still looking very strong for Clinton.
North Carolina and Ohio: Mixed, looks very competitive.
Florida: Looks like Clinton has the edge here.
Arizona: Better than 2012, but probably not enough.
Iowa: Looks worse than 2012, I'm thinking that Trump wins here.

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I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

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This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.

Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year).   While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.

Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.

The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.

[Mehmentum]

This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.

Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year).   While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.

Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.

The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.

http://static.lakana.com/nxsglobal/lasvegasnow/document_dev/2016/11/02/poll_12593657_ver1.0.pdf

Another poll showing 16% of D are cross voting for Trump, but only 11% of R are cross voting for Hillary.

Where's the actual poll for this, I'd like to look at methodology.  Like I said, NV polling tends to understand Democrats' performance because of their difficulties polling hispanics.  Also its very likely that that's a MOE difference, but I'd need to see the rest of the poll first.

[Mehmentum]

Interesting stats out of Georgia:

White: 59.9%
African-American: 27.8%
Hispanic: 1.5%
Other: 2.2%
Unknown: 8.7%

Who are the "unknown" demographically in Georgia? The known white vote is now a tick under 60%

If I remember correctly, Unknown is like 2/3rds non-white.

[Mehmentum]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

More Republican women voting than men? Hmmmm, wonder what that could mean.

Yeah that only makes sense if a significant number of Republican women are voting for Clinton.  If they were reluctantly supporting Trump, you'd see a drop in turnout, if anything.

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1.) There are fewer (registered) Democratic voters because dixiecrats have finally changed their registration, it doesn't hurt them in the slightest.

2.) Educated white EV is surging.  In NoVa, turnout is up like 50%.  These people will not vote for Trump.

3.) Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents) are very D-leaning.  Them surging is awful news for Republicans.