absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[riceowl]

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/794334686206169093

'splain

[riceowl]

So based on those Iowa numbers, why does it look so dire for HRC there? Obama won the state by 92k votes after an EV advantage of 60k. The election day vote shift would have to be substantial.

[riceowl]

Hit the turning point in CO.

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Can we start chicken littleing now?

See my pre-empting of this question here:

They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

I guess the question is - how much of that 7.5% swing can we count on?

[riceowl]

Do we seriously need to explain the issue with MI early voting again?!

Please do!

[riceowl]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

[riceowl]

Yes, the Travis county percentage is striking.

[riceowl]

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

[riceowl]

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

Yes, I just think it would have made more sense to have it earlier in the day. Idk. Yes, he needs to rally there, but seems like it could have been timed better. 

Or I'm just dumb and slightly hungover

[riceowl]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Huh? El Paso County had 96,189 early votes at this time in 2012 for a 2.82% share of the total statewide early voting. This year, it's at 150,446, for a share of 3.35%. That's a pretty substantial increase.

There are substantial increases in the early turnout of ultra-GOP suburbs like Collin as well. But Travis is notable.

And Harris, and Bexar, and Dallas...

[riceowl]

!!!!!


@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA

Looks like Broward will set a record today for in-person.

FL stop. My heart can't take it. (Keep going)

Aren't you tired of winning??