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  YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3  (Read 1654 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: November 02, 2016, 09:37:22 am »


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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 09:44:40 am »


If you look at the crosstab page, they also give a LV result, which is:

Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 09:45:32 am »

Dems
Clinton 90%
Trump 5%
Stein 1%
Johnson 0%

GOP
Trump 89%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 51%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

men: Trump +3
women: Clinton +7
under 30: Clinton +46
30-44: Clinton +9
45-64: Trump +5
65+: Trump +23
whites: Trump +20
blacks: Clinton +80
Hispanics: Clinton +55
under $50k: Clinton +15
$50-100k: Trump +12
over $100k: Clinton +5

So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 09:49:02 am »

More crosstabs…

People who voted in the Dem. primaries:
Clinton 83%
Trump 9%
Stein 3%
Johnson 2%

People who voted in the GOP primaries:
Trump 82%
Clinton 8%
Johnson 5%
Stein 0%

People who supported Sanders in the primaries:
Clinton 68%
Trump 15%
Stein 7%
Johnson 4%

People who supported a Republican candidate other than Trump in the primaries:
Trump 70%
Clinton 11%
Johnson 9%
Stein 0%

97% of those who backed Clinton in the primary still back her in the GE.  97% of those who backed Trump in the primary still back him in the GE.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 09:52:41 am »

"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.

No, it doesn't shock me, but it is a brand new thing, compared to past elections.  In 2008, the Obama/McCain margin was the same for those in the middle income group as for the upper income group, if we trust the exit polls.  But in every other presidential election since the dawn of polling, the GOP candidate's best income group was the rich.  So to see the GOP candidate actually do better with the middle income group would be totally new.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 10:12:14 am »

but Trump wining 2% more of those who voted for other candidate in R primary than Clinton of those who voted for other candidate in D primary

But Republicans who backed a candidate other than Trump make up a larger share of the party than Dems who backed a candidate other than Clinton.  After all, Clinton won ~55% of the Dem. primary vote and Trump only won ~45% of the GOP primary vote.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 01:43:37 pm »

"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.

Trump has always done better with middle class voters - it's been his base.

There have definitely been *some* polls that have him doing best with the wealthiest income group, but most of them seem to have him doing best with the middle.  But I haven't systematically looked at every single poll to track this.  I'll be interested to see what the national exit poll looks like on this question.
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