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  CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA  (Read 5271 times)
jaichind
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« on: November 02, 2016, 11:06:47 am »

CNN/ORC polls: AZ: Trump 49 Clinton 44 NV: Trump 49 Clinton 43 FL: Clinton 49 Trump 47 PA Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 11:07:25 am »

Not as bad as I was expecting. 
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 11:07:44 am »

Nevada is ridiculous based on what we know about early voting, but the rest look plausible.
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jaichind
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 11:08:06 am »

NV looks off given the other numbers.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 11:08:07 am »


Switch the numbers in FL, and take a point or two off Hillary's % in PA and it looks right.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 11:09:01 am »

NV to the right of AZ! #MNVGA
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Mike88
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 11:09:06 am »

The NV result is weird. All the rest seems plausible.
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Arch
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 11:09:18 am »

NV is already practically secured, but we know how horrible NV polls are in general so w/e.

Clinton lead in FL and PA, of course, are great news overall.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 11:09:59 am »


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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 11:10:10 am »

CNN leans right so this is good.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 11:11:00 am »

Compared to previous:


8/23 AZ:

Trump nc
Clinton nc

9/12 FL:

Trump -3
Clinton +3

9/25 PA

Trump -3
Clinton -2

10/15 NV:

Trump +3
Clinton -7 (Huh)



Only positive movement for Trump is in NV, which....looks a bit odd, to say the least.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2016, 11:11:24 am »

Pity about AZ, but if they find Hillary down 6 in NV, maybe she does still have a chance there. NV polls are gonna NV poll, people. It's not a Trump state.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2016, 11:11:28 am »

Also Rubio is up only one in the poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2016, 11:12:04 am »

No. All CNN:s poll was adjusted +1 to Trump by 538 so far. Let see what happen to those.

Good news for Trump.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2016, 11:12:49 am »

Those NV numbers are a joke.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 11:14:27 am »

Ignoring the obviously garbage result in NV, great results for Clinton! Especially considering CNN's heavy R lean.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 11:15:22 am »

All it takes is a white with no college degree surge on election day voting and NV is back in play.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 11:16:58 am »

All it takes is a white with no college degree surge on election day voting and NV is back in play.

Luckily there are no indications in registration numbers or otherwise that imply such an occurrence.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2016, 11:17:39 am »



No. All CNN:s poll was adjusted +1 to Trump by 538 so far. Let see what happen to those.

Good news for Trump.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2016, 11:20:19 am »

Time travel a year back to early 2016 Atlas and tell somebody that in the final week we would be seeing NV numbers to the right of Arizona, Utah is a toss-up, and OH and FL are almost showing to the right of North Carolina.

You would be beaten with a virtual bat.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2016, 11:21:07 am »

All it takes is a white with no college degree surge on election day voting and NV is back in play.

Luckily there are no indications in registration numbers or otherwise that imply such an occurrence.
The turnout among non-educated registred voters was low, IIRC. So IF Trump manages to get a highet turnout among those, he might win.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2016, 11:21:32 am »

Lol @ Toomey underperforming Trump. Stick a fork in him.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2016, 11:21:48 am »

We already had enough garbage polls in the past few days, so CNN decided to add their own.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2016, 11:22:29 am »

Polls seems reasonable with the exception of Nevada
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2016, 11:23:10 am »

a 6 point lead in Nevada? rofl. Aren't the GOP burning up rural voters in early voting?

also lol Pennsylvania

But otherwise this looks kind of reasonable.
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