Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 18, 2019, 01:51:50 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 Print
Author Topic: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA  (Read 4998 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,654
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2016, 11:23:47 am »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.
Logged
Edgar Suit Larry
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22,183
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2016, 11:24:16 am »

I would truly believe this if they flipper Florida and Nevada.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,876
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2016, 11:24:57 am »

They have Trump +1 in Clark County....in the trash you go.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,171


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2016, 11:25:07 am »


It is from the man himself.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,185
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2016, 11:25:35 am »

Trump up by 1 in Clark County, yeah this isn't the best poll.

Wait....really? Lol.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,810
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2016, 11:25:45 am »


Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,221
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:05 am »

Trump up by 1 in Clark County, yeah this isn't the best poll.

Wait....really? Lol.
Yeah, just looked. 
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,654
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:14 am »

And I was talking about their model.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,171


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:27 am »

They have Trump +1 in Clark County....in the trash you go.

Lmao!
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,171


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:54 am »


Which is sh**t, but we knew that already.
Logged
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 657
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2016, 11:27:45 am »

damn, this election, there is just no narrative coming out of these polls at all
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,876
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2016, 11:27:56 am »


Like, this isn't even a matter of polling outliers. That is just physically impossible to occur.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,654
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2016, 11:28:12 am »


Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.
I don't really understand. CNN is too Trumpy, so 538 are adding 1% to him and it lead to hearding?
Logged
mark_twain
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 372
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2016, 11:29:18 am »


FL looks very good, considering the favorable early votes for Clinton.

Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,171


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2016, 11:30:42 am »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

As expected, Ralston calls bullsh**t.
Logged
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,213
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2016, 11:40:00 am »

Crosstabs can be wonky without affecting the accuracy of the topline, which converges much faster.
Logged
EliteLX
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 959
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2016, 11:42:46 am »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 11:45:19 am by EliteLX »

15% of Pennsylvania voters, 11% of Florida voters, comfortable changing their mind by time November 8th comes around.

Very big deal.
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2016, 11:43:22 am »

Here's the CNN Nevada poll data: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf

Anyone see early voting crosstabs?
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,654
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2016, 11:44:20 am »

15% of Pennsylvania voters, 11% of Florida voters, comfortable changing their mind by time November 7th comes around.

Very big deal.
Huh Is it normal? Sounds like way too high to me.
Logged
rafta_rafta
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 926


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2016, 11:44:46 am »

Clinton is going to win NV. 
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,675


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2016, 11:46:22 am »

This is rich. Apparently the Hispanic sample in the CNN NV poll was too small to list cross-tab data for Clinton vs. Kaine.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,995
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2016, 11:46:31 am »

Trump is doing way better than Romney in NV polls. Clinton is probably still favored to win the state, but a Trump upset here wouldn't surprise me at all.

Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,675


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2016, 11:47:45 am »

From twitter: Also: NV: no 18-34 sample. PA: no 18-34 sample. AZ: no 18-49(!!) sample. FL: no 18-49 (!!) sample
Logged
bilaps
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 658
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2016, 11:47:59 am »

clinton hacks accept the result of a poll bbbbut only not one part of poll which is bad for clinton. how surprising.
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2016, 11:48:54 am »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 11:50:32 am by Ozymandias »

Here's the rest of the poll data:

AZ - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relaz2.pdf
FL - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relfl3.pdf
PA - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relpa2.pdf

And I'll repost NV here for convenience:

NV - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC