Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 14, 2019, 03:39:24 am
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print
Author Topic: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA  (Read 5275 times)
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,574
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2016, 11:51:01 am »

Nevada is definitely wrong. The other three look close to right. Clinton with a Florida lead in a CNN poll is very big because CNN has a heavy Trump lean due to Jeff Zucker. I think Arizona is also a couple of points tilted to Trump.
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2016, 11:51:39 am »

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  24m24 minutes ago
Gary Johnson down in all of these CNN polls. From 12% to 5% in AZ. From 6% to 3% in FL. From 6% to 4% in PA. People are coming home.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2016, 11:52:04 am »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Hehe
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2016, 11:53:44 am »

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  20m20 minutes ago
Here are the Senate results from those new CNN/ORC polls:

FL: Rubio 49-48%
NV: Heck 49-47%
PA: McGinty 51-46%
AZ: McCain 52-39%
Logged
calvinhobbesliker
Rookie
*
Posts: 33


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2016, 11:54:29 am »

Poll in PA doesn't even have a large enough sample in freaking PHILADELPHIA!
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,613
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: November 02, 2016, 11:54:44 am »

ralston did just crucify the NV poll.....

nearly no hispanics and gop even in clark county....pure madness.
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2016, 11:56:46 am »

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  8m8 minutes ago
I'm also puzzled -- and this happened before -- why CNN doesn't have big enough sample of Latinos to break them out in crosstabs. Red flag.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,677
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2016, 11:57:15 am »

ralston did just crucify the NV poll.....

nearly no hispanics and gop even in clark county....pure madness.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/793853660405137408

Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,648
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2016, 11:58:07 am »


What is CNN doing?
Logged
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,721
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2016, 11:58:42 am »

CNN is often overly cautious with their subsamples.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: November 02, 2016, 11:59:42 am »

Yes, I'm rethinking this. If whites in NV are breaking 59%-33% for Trump then there has to be a sizable non-white sample to get their topline. How large is the AA and AAPI population in NV relative to Hispanic?
Logged
Classic Conservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,649
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2016, 12:00:05 pm »

I would truly believe this if they flipper Florida and Nevada.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,176


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2016, 12:00:49 pm »


They are cheap.

NV is a state where you really need to spend money to get proper polling.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,677
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2016, 12:01:38 pm »

Yes, I'm rethinking this. If whites in NV are breaking 59%-33% for Trump then there has to be a sizable non-white sample to get their topline. How large is the AA and AAPI population in NV relative to Hispanic?

Hispanics are just less than 30% while AA are at 8%. Only 54% is white.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2016, 12:16:14 pm »

lol the junk level of that Nevada poll is off the charts.
Logged
Landslide Andy
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,727
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: November 02, 2016, 12:39:48 pm »

Well, CNN is really going to embarrass themselves with that Nevada poll. Not that they're new to embarrassment.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: November 02, 2016, 12:40:56 pm »

From twitter: Also: NV: no 18-34 sample. PA: no 18-34 sample. AZ: no 18-49(!!) sample. FL: no 18-49 (!!) sample
Why does this keep happening?!
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,687
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: November 02, 2016, 12:58:00 pm »

Nevada? lolno
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,177


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2016, 01:11:04 pm »

I decided to look at Nevada's Latino sample.

Hispanic: N/A

It's probably in the 'Non-White' but come on...

Logged
Admiral Kizaru
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 560
Political Matrix
E: -3.61, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2016, 01:18:48 pm »

damn, this election, there is just no narrative coming out of these polls at all

Yeah I agree; they're all over the place and rather confusing.


I'm with TNvolunteer .... just going to wait till election night and see what happens. 
Logged
SirMuxALot
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 368


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: November 02, 2016, 01:28:42 pm »

a 6 point lead in Nevada? rofl. Aren't the GOP burning up rural voters in early voting?

Herein I learn that strong EV for Dems indicates election day strength and lock win for Clinton. 

Herein I also learn that strong EV for Reps indicates cannibalization and a lock win for Clinton.
Logged
ProudModerate2
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,416
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: November 02, 2016, 01:31:49 pm »

Ignoring the obviously garbage result in NV, great results for Clinton! Especially considering CNN's heavy R lean.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: November 02, 2016, 01:32:18 pm »

a 6 point lead in Nevada? rofl. Aren't the GOP burning up rural voters in early voting?

Herein I learn that strong EV for Dems indicates election day strength and lock win for Clinton. 

Herein I also learn that strong EV for Reps indicates cannibalization and a lock win for Clinton.

well Democrats have a strong EV there (Dem lead is substantial) AND the areas that are going better for GOP voters are cannibalizing votes (rural areas are the only areas of the state going much better for Trump than other parts of the state). I don't see how both can't be true.
Logged
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,093
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2016, 01:46:36 pm »

Time travel a year back to early 2016 Atlas and tell somebody that in the final week we would be seeing NV numbers to the right of Arizona, Utah is a toss-up, and OH and FL are almost showing to the right of North Carolina.

You would be beaten with a virtual bat.

Perhaps, but had someone predicted this with Trump as the GOP nominee, it wouldn't have been entirely preposterous.  Remember #BattlegroundNewJersey?
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,447
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2016, 01:57:30 pm »

Pennsylvania basically about what I expected, Arizona is disappointing, Florida is a bit of a relief. As far as Nevada, while much closer than 2012, I'm having a hard time believing the polls there (regardless of who is up) given the 5-10 point swings in either direction we keep seeing from poll to poll.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC