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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA  (Read 5063 times)
Hammy
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« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2016, 01:57:30 pm »

Pennsylvania basically about what I expected, Arizona is disappointing, Florida is a bit of a relief. As far as Nevada, while much closer than 2012, I'm having a hard time believing the polls there (regardless of who is up) given the 5-10 point swings in either direction we keep seeing from poll to poll.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #76 on: November 05, 2016, 09:39:45 am »

Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #77 on: November 05, 2016, 09:41:10 am »

Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?

There was a poll in 2004 which had Bush up 8 as a final answer. This could be something like that.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #78 on: November 05, 2016, 09:44:23 am »

Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?

There was a poll in 2004 which had Bush up 8 as a final answer. This could be something like that.

Not to get ahead of myself, but at least they got the correct winner right. If early voters pan out, this could be off by double digits.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #79 on: November 05, 2016, 09:52:09 am »

Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?

There was a poll in 2004 which had Bush up 8 as a final answer. This could be something like that.

Not to get ahead of myself, but at least they got the correct winner right. If early voters pan out, this could be off by double digits.

Sorry. It was a state poll for Wisconsin. But that is a big thing for HRC that you are getting at. There haven't been any elections since at least 1948 where the polls on the whole were just black and white wrong.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #80 on: November 05, 2016, 10:21:11 am »

IDK, Trump has indeed ties to Nevada. Polls are probably wrong, but he clearly has better chanses than Romney or McCain.

year       RCP          Final             
2008    O+6.5        O+12.5 
       
2012    O+2.8        O+6.7
2016     T+2.0           Huh
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #81 on: November 05, 2016, 10:28:49 am »

IDK, Trump has indeed ties to Nevada. Polls are probably wrong, but he clearly has better chanses than Romney or McCain.

year       RCP          Final             
2008    O+6.5        O+12.5 
       
2012    O+2.8        O+6.7
2016     T+2.0           Huh

It could be close. Or the people Hillary relies more on aren't really supposed to vote or maybe there will be a bunch of Bubbas and his buddies in the tailgate of us pickup on Tuesday.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #82 on: November 05, 2016, 11:12:52 am »

still my fav Nevada result the past few years...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html#polls
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Dakota Devil
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« Reply #83 on: November 05, 2016, 12:05:05 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 12:07:19 pm by Dakota Devil »


I remember this.  It was marvelous!

Edit:  Also, this for those who haven't seen it yet:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nevada-early-vote_us_581d5e39e4b0e80b02ca43d0?section=us_politics
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President Johnson
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« Reply #84 on: November 05, 2016, 12:12:03 pm »

Not bad, but Hillary is not that much behind in Nevada. I think she's goingto win there.
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