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  CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA  (Read 5384 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: November 02, 2016, 11:09:59 am »


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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 11:12:04 am »

No. All CNN:s poll was adjusted +1 to Trump by 538 so far. Let see what happen to those.

Good news for Trump.
Clear D-lean Tongue
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 11:21:07 am »

All it takes is a white with no college degree surge on election day voting and NV is back in play.

Luckily there are no indications in registration numbers or otherwise that imply such an occurrence.
The turnout among non-educated registred voters was low, IIRC. So IF Trump manages to get a highet turnout among those, he might win.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 11:23:47 am »

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Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:14 am »

And I was talking about their model.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 11:28:12 am »


Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.
I don't really understand. CNN is too Trumpy, so 538 are adding 1% to him and it lead to hearding?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 11:44:20 am »

15% of Pennsylvania voters, 11% of Florida voters, comfortable changing their mind by time November 7th comes around.

Very big deal.
Huh Is it normal? Sounds like way too high to me.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 11:52:04 am »

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Hehe
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2016, 10:21:11 am »

IDK, Trump has indeed ties to Nevada. Polls are probably wrong, but he clearly has better chanses than Romney or McCain.

year       RCP          Final             
2008    O+6.5        O+12.5 
       
2012    O+2.8        O+6.7
2016     T+2.0           Huh
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