WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
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  WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
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Author Topic: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6  (Read 17400 times)
Dr. Arch
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« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2016, 01:04:57 PM »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2016, 01:07:03 PM »

Pretty solid for HRC, the Senate numbers blow though.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2016, 01:10:27 PM »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.

Small subsamples, though.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2016, 01:17:25 PM »

She'll win the state by about 6-8%, probably on the low end of that. She already has my submitted vote too.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2016, 01:22:39 PM »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #55 on: November 02, 2016, 01:25:14 PM »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2016, 01:25:58 PM »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Thank you.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2016, 01:26:50 PM »

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If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey Huh

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2016, 01:28:38 PM »

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If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey Huh

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?

It's funny how you act as if you can read polls like an expert when there is one for Trump, but when you want to know more about a poll that's favorable to HRC, we need to walk you through it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2016, 01:29:34 PM »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
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Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... Embarrassed
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Maxwell
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« Reply #60 on: November 02, 2016, 01:30:40 PM »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
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Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... Embarrassed

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2016, 01:34:39 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 01:53:04 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

MOE is less than Monmouth (they usually have 400 LV).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2016, 01:35:29 PM »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2016, 01:37:38 PM »

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

MOE is less than Monmouth (they usually have 400 LV).

And I don't really understand how it adds up. Clinton has to have bigger lead than 6. Because, well
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at her worst day she had a lead of 6%

Trump led by 8 on friday, the day of Comey
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2016, 01:37:50 PM »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #65 on: November 02, 2016, 01:38:23 PM »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.

didn't know that - but Green Bay whites seem to love Deplorable Donnie from what I've been hearing.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #66 on: November 02, 2016, 01:38:33 PM »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #67 on: November 02, 2016, 01:39:32 PM »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2016, 01:41:52 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 01:43:34 PM by MasterJedi »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.


For eastern WI those are the only areas where you see Trump signs out there a LOT. Down here in the Milwaukee metro you see some, it has picked up somewhat but there are a lot more Johnson/Ryan/local signs and not nearly as many Trump ones. Up there in the country you drive down the highway and see 20 HUGE Trumper signs to 1 small Clinton. Obviously signs don't mean anything but polling shows it as well.

EDIT: Also why I have no idea why a lot of people think WI-08 will be a Dem pickup.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2016, 01:43:21 PM »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-10-31

Summary: D: 46%, R: 40%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #70 on: November 02, 2016, 01:52:46 PM »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.


For eastern WI those are the only areas where you see Trump signs out there a LOT. Down here in the Milwaukee metro you see some, it has picked up somewhat but there are a lot more Johnson/Ryan/local signs and not nearly as many Trump ones. Up there in the country you drive down the highway and see 20 HUGE Trumper signs to 1 small Clinton. Obviously signs don't mean anything but polling shows it as well.

EDIT: Also why I have no idea why a lot of people think WI-08 will be a Dem pickup.

It will be close.  But WI-08 doesn't send non-celebrity Democrats to Washington.

Incidentally, sometime in Atlas After Dark I should tell you about the "incident" my friends and I had with Jay Johnson back in 1994.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #71 on: November 02, 2016, 01:54:08 PM »

Trump led by 8 on friday, the day of Comey
Yeah. Missread it as Clinton +8 Embarrassed
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Hammy
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« Reply #72 on: November 02, 2016, 01:55:54 PM »

Nothing surprising here, though the breakdown of the people worried about the emails was interesting--less care about it days later than before the Comey story.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2016, 02:01:53 PM »

Why is Feingold underperforming Clinton? Is Ryan's "check" on Clinton schtick working!?!!!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2016, 02:03:35 PM »

Why is Feingold underperforming Clinton? Is Ryan's "check" on Clinton schtick working!?!!!

Johnson will lose. He's never led in the average, and we want Feingold back. Johnson is a bad fit for the state. He can run again in Alabama for senate if he wants.
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