Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 09, 2019, 11:54:13 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print
Author Topic: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6  (Read 10041 times)
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2016, 01:04:57 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,910
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2016, 01:07:03 pm »

Pretty solid for HRC, the Senate numbers blow though.
Logged
Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 50,672
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2016, 01:10:27 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.

Small subsamples, though.
Logged
MasterJedi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,403
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2016, 01:17:25 pm »

She'll win the state by about 6-8%, probably on the low end of that. She already has my submitted vote too.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2016, 01:22:39 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,183
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: November 02, 2016, 01:25:14 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2016, 01:25:58 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Thank you.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2016, 01:26:50 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey Huh

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2016, 01:28:38 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey Huh

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?

It's funny how you act as if you can read polls like an expert when there is one for Trump, but when you want to know more about a poll that's favorable to HRC, we need to walk you through it.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2016, 01:29:34 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... Embarrassed
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: November 02, 2016, 01:30:40 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... Embarrassed

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2016, 01:34:39 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 01:53:04 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

MOE is less than Monmouth (they usually have 400 LV).
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2016, 01:35:29 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).
Logged
SunSt0rm
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 456
Netherlands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2016, 01:37:38 pm »

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

MOE is less than Monmouth (they usually have 400 LV).

And I don't really understand how it adds up. Clinton has to have bigger lead than 6. Because, well
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
at her worst day she had a lead of 6%

Trump led by 8 on friday, the day of Comey
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2016, 01:37:50 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: November 02, 2016, 01:38:23 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.

didn't know that - but Green Bay whites seem to love Deplorable Donnie from what I've been hearing.
Logged
MasterJedi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,403
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: November 02, 2016, 01:38:33 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: November 02, 2016, 01:39:32 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.
Logged
MasterJedi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,403
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2016, 01:41:52 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 01:43:34 pm by MasterJedi »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.


For eastern WI those are the only areas where you see Trump signs out there a LOT. Down here in the Milwaukee metro you see some, it has picked up somewhat but there are a lot more Johnson/Ryan/local signs and not nearly as many Trump ones. Up there in the country you drive down the highway and see 20 HUGE Trumper signs to 1 small Clinton. Obviously signs don't mean anything but polling shows it as well.

EDIT: Also why I have no idea why a lot of people think WI-08 will be a Dem pickup.
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,368
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2016, 01:43:21 pm »

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-10-31

Summary: D: 46%, R: 40%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,061
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: November 02, 2016, 01:52:46 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.


For eastern WI those are the only areas where you see Trump signs out there a LOT. Down here in the Milwaukee metro you see some, it has picked up somewhat but there are a lot more Johnson/Ryan/local signs and not nearly as many Trump ones. Up there in the country you drive down the highway and see 20 HUGE Trumper signs to 1 small Clinton. Obviously signs don't mean anything but polling shows it as well.

EDIT: Also why I have no idea why a lot of people think WI-08 will be a Dem pickup.

It will be close.  But WI-08 doesn't send non-celebrity Democrats to Washington.

Incidentally, sometime in Atlas After Dark I should tell you about the "incident" my friends and I had with Jay Johnson back in 1994.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: November 02, 2016, 01:54:08 pm »

Trump led by 8 on friday, the day of Comey
Yeah. Missread it as Clinton +8 Embarrassed
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,436
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: November 02, 2016, 01:55:54 pm »

Nothing surprising here, though the breakdown of the people worried about the emails was interesting--less care about it days later than before the Comey story.
Logged
Chaddyr23
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 474
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.19, S: -5.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2016, 02:01:53 pm »

Why is Feingold underperforming Clinton? Is Ryan's "check" on Clinton schtick working!?!!!
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,639
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2016, 02:03:35 pm »

Why is Feingold underperforming Clinton? Is Ryan's "check" on Clinton schtick working!?!!!

Johnson will lose. He's never led in the average, and we want Feingold back. Johnson is a bad fit for the state. He can run again in Alabama for senate if he wants.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC