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Author Topic: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6  (Read 8674 times)
Arch
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« on: November 02, 2016, 12:22:55 pm »

Clinton: 46%
Trump: 40%
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 3%

MoE: 3.3%
1401 RV (Landline+Cell)
1255 were LV (MoE 3.5%)

Twitter Post: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Large chunk of the sample post-Comey. MoE on the day-by-day sample is significantly larger.

Also, "Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot." People are tired of it and you can tell it's actually bothering people less as time goes on. Lots of desensitization, especially as partisan-action details became clearer.

#SickOfDamnEmails
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 12:39:41 pm by Arch »Logged

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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 12:26:04 pm »

A nice dose of reality after a week of madness.
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Arch
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 12:33:40 pm »

Early Voters 65% Clinton/25% Trump, which means she has picked up a LOT of I and Rs.
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Arch
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 12:34:35 pm »

Quote
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll
They are trolling...

MoE is huge in the day-by-day. Clinton is Safe here.
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Arch
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 12:35:55 pm »

Also, "Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot." People are tired of it and you can tell it's actually bothering people less as time goes on. Lots of desensitization, especially as partisan-action details became clearer.

#SickOfDamnEmails
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 12:38:30 pm by Arch »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 12:42:11 pm »

Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

She's rebounding nicely from it.
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 01:04:57 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 01:25:58 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Thank you.
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 01:28:38 pm »

Quote
“Concern about Clinton’s use of a private email system does not appear to have shifted much in the wake of the FBI news. The vote margin overall shows a little tightening, from an 11-point Clinton lead before the news to a 6-point lead after the news,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll and professor of law and public policy. “Within partisan identifiers, there is evidence that some undecided Republicans moved to support of Trump over the survey period and that independents shifted from a Clinton advantage to a Trump advantage, though all the shifts are inside the margin of error.”

If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey Huh

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?

It's funny how you act as if you can read polls like an expert when there is one for Trump, but when you want to know more about a poll that's favorable to HRC, we need to walk you through it.
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 01:37:50 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 02:03:35 pm »

Why is Feingold underperforming Clinton? Is Ryan's "check" on Clinton schtick working!?!!!

Johnson will lose. He's never led in the average, and we want Feingold back. Johnson is a bad fit for the state. He can run again in Alabama for senate if he wants.
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