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Author Topic: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6  (Read 8818 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: November 02, 2016, 12:24:47 pm »

Sad! Sad
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 12:27:05 pm »

Is there break for pre and post-Comey?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 12:30:00 pm »

Among early voters, 64% for Clinton, 25% for Trump.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 12:31:25 pm »

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New poll was conducted before and after Fri announcement of new FBI look at Clinton e-mails. Some shifts occurred.
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Combining results for all six days of polling, 50% say they are bothered a lot by Clinton e-mails issue
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23% say they are bothered a little by Clinton e-mails, 26% not bothered at all. (These results are for all registered voters.) #mulawpoll
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Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot. #mulawpoll
...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 12:33:14 pm »

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On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll
They are trolling...



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Little change in view among Democrats before and after FBI news. Support by Republicans of Trump increased. #mulawpoll
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 12:35:15 pm »

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Among Repubs, Trump supported by 73% on Weds and Thurs, 87% on Friday, 86% Sat through Mon. #mulawpoll
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 12:36:19 pm »

MoE is huge in the day-by-day. Clinton is Safe here.

I know. That could go directly to the results. Not doing it = trolling... That's what I meant.





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Among independents, Clinton ahead by 7 on Weds and Thurs, Trump up 10 on Fri, Trump up 8 Sat through Mon. #mulawpoll
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 12:41:08 pm »

Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

Quote
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538  4m4 minutes ago
Nate Silver Retweeted MULawPoll
Small samples here but it's **plausible** that the FBI story was quite damaging to Clinton at first, then damage lessened as story evolved.

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MULawPoll @MULawPoll
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 12:45:46 pm »

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Does “honest” describe Clinton? 28% yes, 68% no. Does “honest” describe Trump? 36% yes, 61% no. #mulawpoll

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62% would be very or somewhat uncomfortable with Trump as president (51% say very uncomfortable). #mulawpoll
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 01:22:39 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 01:26:50 pm »

Quote
“Concern about Clinton’s use of a private email system does not appear to have shifted much in the wake of the FBI news. The vote margin overall shows a little tightening, from an 11-point Clinton lead before the news to a 6-point lead after the news,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll and professor of law and public policy. “Within partisan identifiers, there is evidence that some undecided Republicans moved to support of Trump over the survey period and that independents shifted from a Clinton advantage to a Trump advantage, though all the shifts are inside the margin of error.”

If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey Huh

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2016, 01:29:34 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
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On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll

Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... Embarrassed
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2016, 01:34:39 pm »

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

MOE is less than Monmouth (they usually have 400 LV).
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 01:53:04 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2016, 01:54:08 pm »

Trump led by 8 on friday, the day of Comey
Yeah. Missread it as Clinton +8 Embarrassed
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