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Author Topic: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6  (Read 8809 times)
Maxwell
mah519
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« on: November 02, 2016, 12:30:17 pm »

even accepting this is one point worse than Obama's margin in 2012, this is a huge relief - considering my belief that Wisconsin is one of the potential TRUMP flips.
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Maxwell
mah519
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 12:41:39 pm »

Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

Yeah, if anything, the more likely culprit is Obamacare news giving Republicans and Republican leaning indies an excuse to vote for Trump.
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Maxwell
mah519
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Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 01:30:40 pm »

I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
Quote
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll

Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... Embarrassed

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 01:35:29 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).
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Maxwell
mah519
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 01:38:23 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.

didn't know that - but Green Bay whites seem to love Deplorable Donnie from what I've been hearing.
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Maxwell
mah519
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Posts: 28,712
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E: -6.45, S: -6.96

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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 01:39:32 pm »

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.
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