VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.
Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)
Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.
I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.
VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.
evidence over the country as a whole is that black people are actually early voting at higher numbers in 2016 compared to 2012. There is just a surge in white and hispanic early voting that means the % of Black early voters is down, but therefore by contrast the election day % will be up.
That is factually false.
In many states blacks are down 10-15% from their numbers in 2012.
