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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | |-+  Quinnipiac polls: C+1 FL, C+3 NC, C+5 PA, T+5 OH
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac polls: C+1 FL, C+3 NC, C+5 PA, T+5 OH  (Read 1533 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: November 02, 2016, 02:05:05 pm »
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https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399

FL: Clinton 46 - Trump 45, Johnson 2, Stein 2
NC: Clinton 47 - Trump 44, Johnson 3
OH: Trump 46 - Clinton 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2
PA: Clinton 48 - Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 3

HEAD-TO-HEAD

FL: Clinton 47 - Trump 45
NC: Clinton 48 - Trump 46
OH: Trump 47 - Clinton 44
PA: Clinton 50 - Trump 44

From October 27 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

626 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
602 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
589 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
612 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 02:20:43 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 02:05:32 pm »
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Good numbers for Clinton. Quinnipiac can't poll Ohio so this is hardly surprising.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 02:05:36 pm »
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Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  20s20 seconds ago Washington, DC
New Quinnipiac polls:
Clinton+1 in FL
Clinton+3 in NC
Trump+5 in OH
Clinton+5 in PA

Disgusting poll Sad
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 02:05:45 pm »
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What is the matter with Ohio!?!!
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 02:06:06 pm »
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Friewal intact... NC/FL numbers are solid. OH remains poopy.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 02:06:06 pm »
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Not too shabby. Das Freiwal is holding.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 02:06:17 pm »
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At last a pollster I've heard of Smiley
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Arch
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 02:06:37 pm »
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GREAT numbers. HRC has rebounded nicely from the fake scandal and irresponsible director.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 02:06:48 pm »
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These feel like accurate numbers for both candidates right now, maybe OH is 2-3 point Trump lead instead of 5, but whatever.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 02:06:59 pm »
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I'm sure Nate Silver will find someone to make these improve Trump's chance of winning though!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 02:07:12 pm »
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https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2016, 02:07:17 pm »
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Good numbers for Clinton. Quinnipiac can't poll Ohio so this is hardly surprising.

The Ohio numbers seem reasonable enough.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2016, 02:07:27 pm »
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GREAT numbers. HRC has rebounded nicely from the fake scandal and irresponsible director.

I expect her numbers to improve this weekend.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2016, 02:07:38 pm »
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Trump is just not going to win, and to be honest.. Ohio is close enough that I think Clinton will likely win Ohio at the end.
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alomas
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2016, 02:08:34 pm »
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Trump is just not going to win, and to be honest.. Ohio is close enough that I think Clinton will likely win Ohio at the end.
Any proof for that rather than "I think"?
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adracman42
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 02:08:39 pm »
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Ohio might be a little off, but basically about what I expected at this point.
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darthpi
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 02:09:32 pm »
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What is the matter with Ohio!?!!

President Obama managed to get a surprising number of conservative white voters to hold their noses and vote for him in Ohio in 2012 because they supported the auto bailout, and now those voters are returning to the Republican party now that that issue is far in the rear-view mirror.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 02:09:41 pm »
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Hey look, when a real pollster goes into the field, you get realistic numbers.  I still think Ohio will be closer than that, but given the tightening of the race, it does look like Ohio will flip to Atlas blue.  I think Clinton would need a 5-6 point national margin to have a good shot at Ohio.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2016, 02:10:13 pm »
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Huuuuuuuuge outlier. Ohio is correct tough ***Red-hack style***
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2016, 02:11:26 pm »
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32 point gender gap in PA:

men:
Trump 51%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

women:
Clinton 56%
Trump 36%
Stein 3%
Johnson 1%

Also, there’s still a massive education/race divide in NC:

white college degree: Trump +7
white no college degree: Trump +43
non-white: Clinton +67
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Arch
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2016, 02:11:36 pm »
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Huuuuuuuuge outlier. Ohio is correct tough ***Red-hack style***

Mind pointing out how they're outliers? Oh right, red-hack style requires you to be able to read and understand methodological frameworks. My bad.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2016, 02:12:24 pm »
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EARLY VOTING:

"Hillary Clinton is ahead 48 - 42 percent among Florida voters who already have cast ballots."

"North Carolina early voters back Clinton 58 - 36 percent."

"Ohio early voters back Clinton 58 - 32 percent."
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2016, 02:13:56 pm »
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Awesome
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DavidB.
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2016, 02:14:18 pm »
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Any senate polls for these states?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2016, 02:14:44 pm »
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GREAT numbers. HRC has rebounded nicely from the fake scandal and irresponsible director.

Agree.
And PA, a critical brick in the FireWall is holding.
FL and NC look good.
OH looks to be in trouble from a number of recent polls, but if Clinton can take FL and NC (and NV), then so be it.
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