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Author Topic: Colorado Poll- Tie (University of Denver, conducted October 29-31)  (Read 2966 times)
amdcpus
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« on: November 02, 2016, 07:30:30 pm »

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

Trump 39%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 07:31:17 pm »


Umm...no. Early vote doesn't indicate this at all
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Horus
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 07:31:41 pm »

I'm one of the few people here who genuinely thinks Trump will win. This poll is still garbage.
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 07:32:27 pm »

Lol, no. I'm sure it's closer than it was a few weeks ago, but both under 40? Give me a break.

Early vote is going too well for Clinton for this outcome.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 07:32:31 pm »

Bennet (D) leads 48-40 in the Senate race.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 07:35:05 pm »

c'mon, let's get serious here - as stated in the article:

"It featured fewer Latino voters than expected to cast ballots and also less unaffiliated voters."

IT ONLY HAS 9% LATINO SAMPLE...in freakin Colorado.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 07:38:19 pm by psychprofessor »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 07:36:00 pm »

Denver University? I think this is the first time they make a poll. Didn't saw nothing from 2012, 2014 nor 2008.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 07:37:15 pm »

So, never released a poll before and openly admits under polling Latinos. Gonna just throw it in the average.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 07:37:19 pm »

the famous trump - benett split voter.
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Castro
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 07:39:25 pm »

Where have all the good polls gone
And where are all the gods?
Where's the old fivethirtyeight to fight Trump's rising odds?
Isn't there a gold standard releasing news next week?
Hopefully Clinton will lead
And outside the MOE
I need a pollster
I'm holding out for a pollster 'til the end of the night
It's gotta be new
And it's gotta come soon
And it's gotta have a large sample size
I need a pollster!
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Mike88
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 07:40:32 pm »

c'mon, let's get serious here - as stated in the article:

"It featured fewer Latino voters than expected to cast ballots and also less unaffiliated voters."

IT ONLY HAS 9% LATINO SAMPLE...in freakin Colorado.

Seriously? If they admit they are under-sampling why even bother to make a poll?

I think every one wants their 5 minutes of fame this year. Wink
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2016, 07:42:03 pm »

And Trump is still behind....

CO - Safe D.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2016, 07:53:39 pm »

It looks good for the ballot questions. Why haven't the other polls been added in there?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2016, 08:03:57 pm »

Who?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2016, 08:21:11 pm »

Harry Enten on twitter:

"That CO poll with Clinton/Trump tied is from a good pollster. Worst poll for Clinton I've seen in a while."
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/793984293559238656
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 08:24:09 pm by LimoLiberal »Logged



Swampy.
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 08:24:00 pm »

Harry Enten on twitter:

"That CO poll with Clinton/Trump tied is from a good pollster. Worst poll for Clinton I've seen in a while."

They are unrated by 538.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 08:25:21 pm »

Harry Enten on twitter:

"That CO poll with Clinton/Trump tied is from a good pollster. Worst poll for Clinton I've seen in a while."

They are unrated by 538.

Nope. The poll was conducted by Ciruli Associates. Rating on 538? A+
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 08:25:48 pm »

Yep, because CO is going to be 9% Hispanic.
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JJC
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2016, 08:27:50 pm »

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

Today RCP made seven changes in their state projection... all away from Hillary.

Trump still has an up hill battle, but now he has many more options open to him now. He has two must wins in the bag (IA/OH) and FL/NC early voting looks good for him (especially NC).

Those are his four must wins. He just needs one more state. Before, all other states seemed out of reach except NV (which would fall just short of 270). Now, he has many options. NV, NH, WI, MI, VA, CO, PA, and ME-1 are all in play.

RCP's map currently stands at 226C - 180T with 132EV tossups (does not include MI/WI either).

RCP no tossup is: 273C - 265T.

Clinton still has an advantage, but it's anyone's game. And given how early voting is looking for Hillary, I'd start to really worry if I was her. Remember, most polls project a 2012 like electorate. But most early voting looks closer to 2014.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 08:36:48 pm by JJC »Logged


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LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2016, 08:28:38 pm »

Harry Enten on twitter:

"That CO poll with Clinton/Trump tied is from a good pollster. Worst poll for Clinton I've seen in a while."

They are unrated by 538.
Nope. The poll was conducted by Ciruli Associates. Rating on 538? A+

Wow... It is likely an outlier. But it is a good one for Trump indeed!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2016, 08:29:26 pm »

Harry Enten on twitter:

"That CO poll with Clinton/Trump tied is from a good pollster. Worst poll for Clinton I've seen in a while."

They are unrated by 538.

Nope. The poll was conducted by Ciruli Associates. Rating on 538? A+

So they have only polled once this cycle? Odd.
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TC 25
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2016, 08:30:58 pm »

The trends are obvious.  Michigan, Colorado, other states moving in Trump's direction.

Let's face it: Trump is going to pull this off.
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JJC
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2016, 08:37:36 pm »

The trends are obvious.  Michigan, Colorado, other states moving in Trump's direction.

Let's face it: Trump is going to pull this off.

I agree. I'm starting to get the Scott Brown 2010 senate run vibe.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 08:39:34 pm by JJC »Logged


Quote
Good intentions will always be pleaded for every assumption of authority. It is hardly too strong to say that the Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions. There are men in all ages who mean to govern well, but they mean to govern. They promise to be good masters, but they mean to be masters. ~Daniel Webster
JerryArkansas
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2016, 09:01:04 pm »

The trends are obvious.  Michigan, Colorado, other states moving in Trump's direction.

Let's face it: Trump is going to pull this off.

I agree. I'm starting to get the Scott Brown 2010 senate run vibe.
#cherrypickers
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Arch
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2016, 09:02:35 pm »

The trends are obvious.  Michigan, Colorado, other states moving in Trump's direction.

Let's face it: Trump is going to pull this off.

I agree. I'm starting to get the Scott Brown 2010 senate run vibe.
#cherrypickers
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