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Author Topic: Colorado Poll- Tie (University of Denver, conducted October 29-31)  (Read 2964 times)
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2016, 09:11:23 pm »

Fact: This poll oversampled whites and undersampled latinos. I'm not going to unskew, but the latino voting percentage in Colorado is not going to see a sharp decline like this poll shows.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2016, 09:19:04 pm »

The trends are obvious.  Michigan, Colorado, other states moving in Trump's direction.

Let's face it: Trump is going to pull this off.

I agree. I'm starting to get the Scott Brown 2010 senate run vibe.
#cherrypickers
Nice save.
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« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2016, 09:31:37 pm »

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

Today RCP made seven changes in their state projection... all away from Hillary.

Trump still has an up hill battle, but now he has many more options open to him now. He has two must wins in the bag (IA/OH) and FL/NC early voting looks good for him (especially NC).

Those are his four must wins. He just needs one more state. Before, all other states seemed out of reach except NV (which would fall just short of 270). Now, he has many options. NV, NH, WI, MI, VA, CO, PA, and ME-1 are all in play.

RCP's map currently stands at 226C - 180T with 132EV tossups (does not include MI/WI either).

RCP no tossup is: 273C - 265T.

Clinton still has an advantage, but it's anyone's game. And given how early voting is looking for Hillary, I'd start to really worry if I was her. Remember, most polls project a 2012 like electorate. But most early voting looks closer to 2014.
Thank you for not being another one of those people that rant "trash poll"
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2016, 09:32:58 pm »

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

Today RCP made seven changes in their state projection... all away from Hillary.

Trump still has an up hill battle, but now he has many more options open to him now. He has two must wins in the bag (IA/OH) and FL/NC early voting looks good for him (especially NC).

Those are his four must wins. He just needs one more state. Before, all other states seemed out of reach except NV (which would fall just short of 270). Now, he has many options. NV, NH, WI, MI, VA, CO, PA, and ME-1 are all in play.

RCP's map currently stands at 226C - 180T with 132EV tossups (does not include MI/WI either).

RCP no tossup is: 273C - 265T.

Clinton still has an advantage, but it's anyone's game. And given how early voting is looking for Hillary, I'd start to really worry if I was her. Remember, most polls project a 2012 like electorate. But most early voting looks closer to 2014.
Thank you for not being another one of those people that rant "trash poll"

We'll find out in a week.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2016, 09:36:09 pm »

Red Avatars: undersampled Hispanic about -5%.  only 9% Hispanics in the Poll? !!! blah blah blah

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

1. This poll oversampled college degree / undersampled HS/Some college horribly
Univ of Denver:  degree 59% | HS/Some college 40%
2012 CO exit Poll: degree 49% | HS/Some College 48%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/
can u see? oversampled degree +10%, undersampled HS/Some College -8%. Tongue

2. 'undersampled' Hispanics about 5% doesn't make that great difference as Red Avatar's delusion.

YouGov Model 11/1  Colorado
Hispanic: Hillary 61% | TRUMP 30%
Other: Hillary 57% | TRUMP 31%
5% x (61-57)= 0.2% wow! massive change Tongue
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Colorado

3. Conclusion
with #UnskewthePoll  TRUMP is winning in Colorado Cheesy

« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 09:41:09 pm by StatesPoll »Logged
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2016, 09:37:09 pm »

Ah good. I already figured this was an outlier, but statespoll showing up with positivity confirms that for me. Thanks bud.
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Arch
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2016, 09:37:19 pm »

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

Today RCP made seven changes in their state projection... all away from Hillary.

Trump still has an up hill battle, but now he has many more options open to him now. He has two must wins in the bag (IA/OH) and FL/NC early voting looks good for him (especially NC).

Those are his four must wins. He just needs one more state. Before, all other states seemed out of reach except NV (which would fall just short of 270). Now, he has many options. NV, NH, WI, MI, VA, CO, PA, and ME-1 are all in play.

RCP's map currently stands at 226C - 180T with 132EV tossups (does not include MI/WI either).

RCP no tossup is: 273C - 265T.

Clinton still has an advantage, but it's anyone's game. And given how early voting is looking for Hillary, I'd start to really worry if I was her. Remember, most polls project a 2012 like electorate. But most early voting looks closer to 2014.
Thank you for not being another one of those people that rant "trash poll"

Note that RCP is selective in what polls they add. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, is not there. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday, Clinton+8, is also not there. But they always add outliers like these to their averages. It's a manipulated average.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2016, 09:42:22 pm »

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

Today RCP made seven changes in their state projection... all away from Hillary.

Trump still has an up hill battle, but now he has many more options open to him now. He has two must wins in the bag (IA/OH) and FL/NC early voting looks good for him (especially NC).

Those are his four must wins. He just needs one more state. Before, all other states seemed out of reach except NV (which would fall just short of 270). Now, he has many options. NV, NH, WI, MI, VA, CO, PA, and ME-1 are all in play.

RCP's map currently stands at 226C - 180T with 132EV tossups (does not include MI/WI either).

RCP no tossup is: 273C - 265T.

Clinton still has an advantage, but it's anyone's game. And given how early voting is looking for Hillary, I'd start to really worry if I was her. Remember, most polls project a 2012 like electorate. But most early voting looks closer to 2014.
Thank you for not being another one of those people that rant "trash poll"

Note that RCP is selective in what polls they add. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, is not there. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday, Clinton+8, is also not there. But they always add outliers like these to their averages. It's a manipulated average.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2016, 09:54:21 pm »

Red Avatars: undersampled Hispanic about -5%.  only 9% Hispanics in the Poll? !!! blah blah blah

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

1. This poll oversampled college degree / undersampled HS/Some college horribly
Univ of Denver:  degree 59% | HS/Some college 40%
2012 CO exit Poll: degree 49% | HS/Some College 48%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/
can u see? oversampled degree +10%, undersampled HS/Some College -8%. Tongue

2. 'undersampled' Hispanics about 5% doesn't make that great difference as Red Avatar's delusion.

YouGov Model 11/1  Colorado
Hispanic: Hillary 61% | TRUMP 30%
Other: Hillary 57% | TRUMP 31%
5% x (61-57)= 0.2% wow! massive change Tongue
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Colorado

3. Conclusion
with #UnskewthePoll  TRUMP is winning in Colorado Cheesy


Do you even unskew?
Hispanic: CLINTON 61% | donald 30%
(61-30)%= 31%
If CO is tied at this level and at 9% Hispanic at C+30, others must create T+2.7. 2.7*100/91 = 2.9. So, non-Hispanics would be at T+2.9. Then, unskewing for Hispanics would add (2.9+31)%*5% = 1.7% to the poll. Maybe not statistically significant, but certainly enough to turn off the Trump-fetishists a little, and if we're already unskewing, then I'm glad to get that far Tongue
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« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2016, 09:55:41 pm »

Harry Enten on twitter:

"That CO poll with Clinton/Trump tied is from a good pollster. Worst poll for Clinton I've seen in a while."

They are unrated by 538.

Nope. The poll was conducted by Ciruli Associates. Rating on 538? A+

538 has NOT rated this pollster. It shows as blank in the "Grade" column.
It also has been adjusted to Clinton +1.
And it has a lower weight (lower down on the list).
CO shows at 73% chance that Clinton wins this state.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 09:57:22 pm by ProudModerate2 »Logged
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2016, 09:58:00 pm »

And besides, its ✞RUMP(卐-NY)  vs. (((Hillary Clin✞on)))
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 10:01:21 pm by Spicy Purrito »Logged

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« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2016, 09:59:12 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2016, 09:59:48 pm »

Red Avatars: undersampled Hispanic about -5%.  only 9% Hispanics in the Poll? !!! blah blah blah

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

1. This poll oversampled college degree / undersampled HS/Some college horribly
Univ of Denver:  degree 59% | HS/Some college 40%
2012 CO exit Poll: degree 49% | HS/Some College 48%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/
can u see? oversampled degree +10%, undersampled HS/Some College -8%. Tongue

2. 'undersampled' Hispanics about 5% doesn't make that great difference as Red Avatar's delusion.

YouGov Model 11/1  Colorado
Hispanic: Hillary 61% | TRUMP 30%
Other: Hillary 57% | TRUMP 31%
5% x (61-57)= 0.2% wow! massive change Tongue
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Colorado

3. Conclusion
with #UnskewthePoll  TRUMP is winning in Colorado Cheesy


Do you even unskew?
Hispanic: CLINTON 61% | donald 30%
(61-30)%= 31%
If CO is tied at this level and at 9% Hispanic at C+30, others must create T+2.7. 2.7*100/91 = 2.9. So, non-Hispanics would be at T+2.9. Then, unskewing for Hispanics would add (2.9+31)%*5% = 1.7% to the poll. Maybe not statistically significant, but certainly enough to turn off the Trump-fetishists a little, and if we're already unskewing, then I'm glad to get that far Tongue

you don't understand. There is no problem of White Voter shares: 81% of total
(even in 2012 it was 78%. plus White HS/Some college turnouts would be ↑)

most amount of undersampled Hispanics in this poll, not by oversampling white voters.
so your assumption is wrong. Wink

« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 10:01:37 pm by StatesPoll »Logged
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2016, 10:01:26 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.
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« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2016, 10:02:46 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

or ϟϟPICY! Wink See what I did?
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2016, 10:03:38 pm »

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

And I see a lot of young people on this forum who have grown overconfident in 2-week/1-month plus prior to election day polling.  Because of the last month stability of the polling in the last four elections, we've convinced ourselves that we can rely on mid-October polling to tell us what we need to.

But there may be few here who remember a race like 1980.  Which had a hugely dramatic and extremely late break toward Reagan.  Even discarding Gallup's famous Carter +8 penultimate poll, the other (then regarded as amateur) pollsters were all showing an extremely tight, within the margin race.  The actual outcome (Reagan winning by 10 points) was well out of the margin of error for nearly every public poll.

Perhaps significant to this outcome was that 1980 had persistently high undecided / third party numbers for nearly the entire GE campaign.  The late break of undecideds was sharp and shocking.  It possible that if we had the prolific public polling then as we do now, it would have appeared much like we are seeing today; a series of wild, volatile perceived outliers pointing to utterly irreconcilable disagreement over the state of the race in the last week.

If this forum existed in 1980, the Gallup one week move from Carter+8 to Regan+3 in their last 2 polls would have probably prompted quite a few dismissive "junk poll" retorts.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2016, 10:03:59 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

or SSPICY! Wink See what I did?

*clap*
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2016, 10:05:32 pm »

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

And I see a lot of young people on this forum who have grown overconfident in 2-week/1-month plus prior to election day polling.  Because of the last month stability of the polling in the last four elections, we've convinced ourselves that we can rely on mid-October polling to tell us what we need to.

But there may be few here who remember a race like 1980.  Which had a hugely dramatic and extremely late break toward Reagan.  Even discarding Gallup's famous Carter +8 penultimate poll, the other (then regarded as amateur) pollsters were all showing an extremely tight, within the margin race.  The actual outcome (Reagan winning by 10 points) was well out of the margin of error for nearly every public poll.

Perhaps significant to this outcome was that 1980 had persistently high undecided / third party numbers for nearly the entire GE campaign.  The late break of undecideds was sharp and shocking.  It possible that if we had the prolific public polling then as we do now, it would have appeared much like we are seeing today; a series of wild, volatile perceived outliers pointing to utterly irreconcilable disagreement over the state of the race in the last week.

If this forum existed in 1980, the Gallup one week move from Carter+8 to Regan+3 in their last 2 polls would have probably prompted quite a few dismissive "junk poll" retorts.
Reagan was already ahead in most polls post-convention save for September. Smiley
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« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2016, 10:06:04 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2016, 10:07:35 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD


« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 10:10:53 pm by Spicy Purrito »Logged

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« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2016, 10:08:49 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD


http://fsymbols.com/signs/

Please don't give him new ideas.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2016, 10:10:21 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD




Please don't give him new ideas.

Your turn. Lest you want him to be using Happy ϟϟad to be using this (((☭ ))) on us.

At any rate, we will either be waking up to KKKolorado or Cuckarado in 120ish hours. 
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 10:13:45 pm by Spicy Purrito »Logged

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« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2016, 10:21:22 pm »

Reagan was already ahead in most polls post-convention save for September. Smiley

By 10 points?  If you research, you'll find the answer is a big "no, not even close".

Almost every single poll (even October polls!) had Carter and Reagan well within their margin of error.  Read what Caddell (Carter) and Wirthin (Reagan) said about their internal polling also.  They both had it as too close to call until after the last week debate.

There was a late break for Reagan in 1980.  Many polls did not capture that.  Precious few did.  And those that did, did not capture the magnitude of that break.
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« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2016, 10:21:41 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD




Please don't give him new ideas.

Your turn. Lest you want him to be using Happy ϟϟad to be using this (((☭ ))) on us.

At any rate, we will either be waking up to KKKolorado or Cuckarado in 120ish hours. 

Lol, guys. You are sort of jacking off each other Cheesy
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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
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« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2016, 10:26:18 pm »

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD




Please don't give him new ideas.

Your turn. Lest you want him to be using Happy ϟϟad to be using this (((☭ ))) on us.

At any rate, we will either be waking up to KKKolorado or Cuckarado in 120ish hours. 

Lol, guys. You are sort of jacking off each other Cheesy

Better than trying to do work here and being interrupted by you doing it to yourself all day.
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