Colorado Poll- Tie (University of Denver, conducted October 29-31)

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Red Avatars: undersampled Hispanic about -5%.  only 9% Hispanics in the Poll? !!! blah blah blah

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

1. This poll oversampled college degree / undersampled HS/Some college horribly
Univ of Denver:  degree 59% | HS/Some college 40%
2012 CO exit Poll: degree 49% | HS/Some College 48%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president/
can u see? oversampled degree +10%, undersampled HS/Some College -8%.

2. 'undersampled' Hispanics about 5% doesn't make that great difference as Red Avatar's delusion.

YouGov Model 11/1  Colorado
Hispanic: Hillary 61% | TRUMP 30%
Other: Hillary 57% | TRUMP 31%
5% x (61-57)= 0.2% wow! massive change
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/?state=Colorado

3. Conclusion
with #UnskewthePoll  TRUMP is winning in Colorado

Do you even unskew?
Hispanic: CLINTON 61% | _donald 30%
(61-30)%= 31%
If CO is tied at this level and at 9% Hispanic at C+30, others must create T+2.7. 2.7*100/91 = 2.9. So, non-Hispanics would be at T+2.9. Then, unskewing for Hispanics would add (2.9+31)%*5% = 1.7% to the poll. Maybe not statistically significant, but certainly enough to turn off the Trump-fetishists a little, and if we're already unskewing, then I'm glad to get that far