Colorado Poll- Tie (University of Denver, conducted October 29-31)

[Person Man]

It looks good for the ballot questions. Why haven't the other polls been added in there?

[Person Man]

The trends are obvious.  Michigan, Colorado, other states moving in Trump's direction.

Let's face it: Trump is going to pull this off.

I agree. I'm starting to get the Scott Brown 2010 senate run vibe.

#cherrypickers

Nice save.

[Person Man]

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

Today RCP made seven changes in their state projection... all away from Hillary.

Trump still has an up hill battle, but now he has many more options open to him now. He has two must wins in the bag (IA/OH) and FL/NC early voting looks good for him (especially NC).

Those are his four must wins. He just needs one more state. Before, all other states seemed out of reach except NV (which would fall just short of 270). Now, he has many options. NV, NH, WI, MI, VA, CO, PA, and ME-1 are all in play.

RCP's map currently stands at 226C - 180T with 132EV tossups (does not include MI/WI either).

RCP no tossup is: 273C - 265T.

Clinton still has an advantage, but it's anyone's game. And given how early voting is looking for Hillary, I'd start to really worry if I was her. Remember, most polls project a 2012 like electorate. But most early voting looks closer to 2014.

Thank you for not being another one of those people that rant "trash poll"

Note that RCP is selective in what polls they add. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, is not there. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday, Clinton+8, is also not there. But they always add outliers like these to their averages. It's a manipulated average.

[Person Man]

And besides, its ✞RUMP(卐-NY)  vs. (((Hillary Clin✞on)))

[Person Man]

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

or ϟϟPICY! See what I did?

[Person Man]

Whether you believe the top numbers or not, the trend is unmistakable. Every state is moving away from Clinton.

And I see a lot of young people on this forum who have grown overconfident in 2-week/1-month plus prior to election day polling.  Because of the last month stability of the polling in the last four elections, we've convinced ourselves that we can rely on mid-October polling to tell us what we need to.

But there may be few here who remember a race like 1980.  Which had a hugely dramatic and extremely late break toward Reagan.  Even discarding Gallup's famous Carter +8 penultimate poll, the other (then regarded as amateur) pollsters were all showing an extremely tight, within the margin race.  The actual outcome (Reagan winning by 10 points) was well out of the margin of error for nearly every public poll.

Perhaps significant to this outcome was that 1980 had persistently high undecided / third party numbers for nearly the entire GE campaign.  The late break of undecideds was sharp and shocking.  It possible that if we had the prolific public polling then as we do now, it would have appeared much like we are seeing today; a series of wild, volatile perceived outliers pointing to utterly irreconcilable disagreement over the state of the race in the last week.

If this forum existed in 1980, the Gallup one week move from Carter+8 to Regan+3 in their last 2 polls would have probably prompted quite a few dismissive "junk poll" retorts.

Reagan was already ahead in most polls post-convention save for September.

[Person Man]

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD

[Person Man]

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD

Please don't give him new ideas.

Your turn. Lest you want him to be using Happy ϟϟad to be using this (((☭ ))) on us.

At any rate, we will either be waking up to KKKolorado or Cuckarado in 120ish hours. 

[Person Man]

Note that Red Hacks is selective in what polls they like. The CO poll that was released today, Clinton+10, they love and don't criticise at all. Likewise, the FL poll that was released yesterday by Democratic firm without a track history, Clinton+8. But they always hate A+ polls and call them outliers like these A+ polls from SUSA and ABC. It's a manipulated hypocrisy.

Someones salty.

Emotes...not...working.....................must......engage..........B-B-BOLD

Please don't give him new ideas.

Your turn. Lest you want him to be using Happy ϟϟad to be using this (((☭ ))) on us.

At any rate, we will either be waking up to KKKolorado or Cuckarado in 120ish hours. 

Lol, guys. You are sort of jacking off each other

You know you like it.

[Person Man]

OK. I have to revisit this poll after today's indication. I thought it was 3-5% points off, even though it is "A" pollster. But now I think it is just 0-3% points off

"Indication"