if trump wins, will huffpoll and sam wong be totally and completely discredited?
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  if trump wins, will huffpoll and sam wong be totally and completely discredited?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: if trump wins, will huffpoll and sam wong be totally and completely discredited?  (Read 284 times)
win win
dxu8888
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« on: November 03, 2016, 07:44:55 PM »
each gives Trump a 1% chance to win at the moment
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 07:47:11 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 07:49:33 PM by Ronnie »
1% is definitely too low, but I do think Hillary's odds are somewhere in the 80s or 90s right now.  Nate Cohn's model is probably closest to the mark.

To answer the OP's question, probably.  I guess that's why Nate Silver's model is unusually conservative: to hedge in case something goes wrong.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 07:48:02 PM »
Yes. It would be  Dick Morris/Karl Rove level embarrassment
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 07:48:57 PM »
If Trump wins, about the only prognosticator who comes out of it looking good is Nate Silver.  And even he would have gotten the result wrong.

DO YOU WANT NATE SILVER TO WIN?  DO YOU?!!!  THEN GET TO THE POLLS AND VOTE CLINTON!!
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 07:49:27 PM »
Quote from: party id =/= party reg on November 03, 2016, 07:48:02 PM
Yes. It would be  Dick Morris/Karl Rove level embarrassment

It would be even worse than that.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2016, 07:51:04 PM »
irrelevant, as they'd be in prison or "disappeared"
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 07:52:16 PM »
America will be completely discredited.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 07:54:00 PM »
don't think anybody who is trump over 10% right now should be embarassed.

low probability events happen all the time.
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