NH-ARG: Trump +5

[Buzz]

The trend is your friend!! Fantastic!!

[elcorazon]

Trump's gonna win

[Lyin' Steve]

So it's Trump 48, Clinton 43, Kasich 9?  Just guessing based on previous ARG NH polling.

[win win]

It's not suprrrrising if you consider NH is 93% white.

[KingSweden]

It's ARG people, calm down

[Eraserhead]

Officialy safe Clinton, I guess.

In all seriousness, Trump still has to secure Florida and North Carolina before small states like this will matter. FL and NC are both tossups that are leaning ever so slightly towards Clinton imo.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Benchmark has banned ARG polls from their database.
Perhaps Atlas should consider doing the same.

[pbrower2a]

Jesus F. Christ, what is it with all these trash polls lately??

People are creating narratives to fit every agenda.

[ProudModerate2]

Uggggg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Arrrrgggghhh

[TC 25]

The blue firewall has crumbled:
New Hampshire – 4 EV – Trump in the lead in two polls today).
Michigan – 16 EV – Trump gaining rapidly
Pennsylvania -20 EV – Trump within 2-3 and gaining
Virginia – 13 EV – Trump takes the lead in one poll, surging in others and the 2014 Gillespie effect.
Colorado – 9 EV – Trump with all the momentum, tied in one poll.

I’ll keep Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico in the safe Clinton camp for now.
The paths are expanding.

[Ember]

TN Volunteer will be a little upset on Tuesday.

[win win]

The blue firewall has crumbled:
New Hampshire – 4 EV – Trump in the lead in two polls today).
Michigan – 16 EV – Trump gaining rapidly
Pennsylvania -20 EV – Trump within 2-3 and gaining
Virginia – 13 EV – Trump takes the lead in one poll, surging in others and the 2014 Gillespie effect.
Colorado – 9 EV – Trump with all the momentum, tied in one poll.

I’ll keep Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico in the safe Clinton camp for now.
The paths are expanding.

They are all junk polls. Hillary is gonna win because I said so.

[Oakvale]

Jesus F. Christ, what is it with all these trash polls lately??

Discredited fraud Nate Silver basically ruined the polling industry by popularising the miracle of aggregation and averaging, meaning that ARG and random junk uni polls are all we're getting, apparently.

[TC 25]

The blue firewall has crumbled:
New Hampshire – 4 EV – Trump in the lead in two polls today).
Michigan – 16 EV – Trump gaining rapidly
Pennsylvania -20 EV – Trump within 2-3 and gaining
Virginia – 13 EV – Trump takes the lead in one poll, surging in others and the 2014 Gillespie effect.
Colorado – 9 EV – Trump with all the momentum, tied in one poll.

I’ll keep Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico in the safe Clinton camp for now.
The paths are expanding.

They are all junk polls. Hillary is gonna win because I said so.

Good luck with that.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Pussygrabber McTic Tac Breath up 2% then down 7%... Trump sheep be like:

Lol, true!

[NHI]

Great poll! Not too late to get on the Trump train.

[IceSpear]

Jesus F. Christ, what is it with all these trash polls lately??

Discredited fraud Nate Silver basically ruined the polling industry by popularising the miracle of aggregation and averaging, meaning that ARG and random junk uni polls are all we're getting, apparently.

And now he's being hoisted by his own petard, putting out BS like Rhode Island being competitive, LOL.

[The Vorlon]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres16/

Trump 48
Clinton 43

The interviews were conducted October 31 through November 2, 2016.

Not the greatest poll imo but here it is.

Boston Globe/Suffolk - Tied - A surprisingly decent poll for a University poll

ARG Trump +5 - Junk

WBUR/MassINC Trump +1 - A decent and competent company (A- says Nate Silver)

WMUR/UNH - Clinton +7 - Not bad for a University poll (B+ says Nate Silver)

Emerson - Clinton +3 - Not great, not horrible as a poll

[Hammy]

The blue firewall has crumbled:
New Hampshire – 4 EV – Trump in the lead in two polls today).
Michigan – 16 EV – Trump gaining rapidly
Pennsylvania -20 EV – Trump within 2-3 and gaining
Virginia – 13 EV – Trump takes the lead in one poll, surging in others and the 2014 Gillespie effect.
Colorado – 9 EV – Trump with all the momentum, tied in one poll.

I’ll keep Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico in the safe Clinton camp for now.
The paths are expanding.

I'll admit New Hampshire has me worried, she hasn't led for about four polls. Not a good sign there.
In Michigan, Trump is not gaining rapidly--The post-debate bump is dissipating and the margin has not changed at all post-Comey--both are gaining in the polls as the undecideds decide.
Pennsylvania--see Michigan, though likely to be closer than MI as it is in just about every election.
Virginia--both were gaining in the polls after the last third of October, and the spike on the chart is due literally to a single poll. I'll need to see more to believe Trump has a chance.
Colorado has stabilized in the poll averaging and a 39-39 tie is useless to go on as there are too many undecideds.

Most of the surges were likely related to Friday's Comey story, and with that dissipating in the news the polls are returning slowly to a pre-Comey level, with the exception of New Hampshire which may very well flip.