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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  MO/NV/NH/NC/PA/WI - PPP: Clinton leads in NV, NH, NC, PA, WI; Trump leads in MO
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Author Topic: MO/NV/NH/NC/PA/WI - PPP: Clinton leads in NV, NH, NC, PA, WI; Trump leads in MO  (Read 1757 times)
BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2016, 10:44:40 am »

Looks like Trump is going to be toast, if this holds up.

This could also be a sign that some of Dems might be going home after Clinton's FBI fiasco.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2016, 10:50:06 am »

Any Dems concerned about the Philly transit strike shaving some votes off the margin there?

No. We've been over this.

Must have missed it, why is it not a concern?  If the race turns out to be super close a 10/20K vote reduced margin in Philly could make a difference (however unlikely).  Or is the strike going to definitely be resolved by then?
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2016, 10:50:27 am »

SENATE

WI: Feingold +5
NV: Cortez-Mastro +3
NH: Hassan +3
PA: McGinty +2
NC: Burr +3
MO: Blunt +2
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mark_twain
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« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2016, 10:55:00 am »


Great poll results!

Go Clinton!
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Arch
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« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2016, 11:07:26 am »

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2016, 11:09:23 am »

Trump is doing much better in Pennsylvania than I had ever imagined. He should spend every waking moment in PA, FL, and NC this week with and blast a bit in Ohio too. That's the only path. NV is not happening so it makes NH not worth it.

PA is Fool’s Gold for the Republicans. They targeted the state in all previous elections, especially in 2012, but it didn’t work out. You could argue that Mr. Drumpf’s message is different from previous nominees and more appealing to some Rust Belt voters. Nevertheless, with these devastating numbers among college-educated suburban voters, women in particular, he has a only a very tiny chance to take the state. PA flipping Republican this election is just not happening. And quite frankly, I think it won’t be even as close as expected. Hillary is going to win by at least five points, probably as much as seven or eight. Keep also in mind that he did not lead a single poll in PA for a couple of months now. And as you correctly pointed out, another realistic path to 270 EVs is just not there for the Trumpster.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2016, 11:12:09 am »

Here's a handy summary of results:

Image Link

Kander is only Dem running ahead of Clinton.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #32 on: November 04, 2016, 11:17:50 am »

If PA and CO holds, then taking Nevada would close most paths for Dumpster Fire
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #33 on: November 04, 2016, 11:21:26 am »

Fantastic numbers but I refuse to get my hopes up. Trump being at 45% and below in most swing states is the most encouraging news.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #34 on: November 04, 2016, 11:30:02 am »

Solid!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #35 on: November 04, 2016, 11:39:41 am »

Trump is doing much better in Pennsylvania than I had ever imagined. He should spend every waking moment in PA, FL, and NC this week with and blast a bit in Ohio too. That's the only path. NV is not happening so it makes NH not worth it.

PA is Fool’s Gold for the Republicans. They targeted the state in all previous elections, especially in 2012, but it didn’t work out. You could argue that Mr. Drumpf’s message is different from previous nominees and more appealing to some Rust Belt voters. Nevertheless, with these devastating numbers among college-educated suburban voters, women in particular, he has a only a very tiny chance to take the state. PA flipping Republican this election is just not happening. And quite frankly, I think it won’t be even as close as expected. Hillary is going to win by at least five points, probably as much as seven or eight. Keep also in mind that he did not lead a single poll in PA for a couple of months now. And as you correctly pointed out, another realistic path to 270 EVs is just not there for the Trumpster.

Oh, I know, he has no shot here right now, believe me, but do you just expect him to give up? That's idiocy.

Any Dems concerned about the Philly transit strike shaving some votes off the margin there?

No. We've been over this.

Must have missed it, why is it not a concern?  If the race turns out to be super close a 10/20K vote reduced margin in Philly could make a difference (however unlikely).  Or is the strike going to definitely be resolved by then?

Extraordinarily tiny precincts mean that there should be no need to rely on public transportation to get to the polls.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2016, 11:59:40 am »

SUPER DUPER SOLID!!! 

PA is a little low but Donny's numbers in Philly and SE are fatal. 
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Maxwell
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« Reply #37 on: November 04, 2016, 12:13:01 pm »

SUPER DUPER SOLID!!! 

PA is a little low but Donny's numbers in Philly and SE are fatal. 

to be fair, PPP always showed lower numbers in PA than just about any other poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #38 on: November 04, 2016, 12:39:50 pm »

SUPER DUPER SOLID!!! 

PA is a little low but Donny's numbers in Philly and SE are fatal. 

to be fair, PPP always showed lower numbers in PA than just about any other poll.

No.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
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Hammy
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« Reply #39 on: November 04, 2016, 12:45:58 pm »

If this was done for a progressive group, I'd take a point or two off Clinton's margins, otherwise given that it's PPP it looks about right.
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swf541
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« Reply #40 on: November 04, 2016, 12:47:13 pm »

If this was done for a progressive group, I'd take a point or two off Clinton's margins, otherwise given that it's PPP it looks about right.

PPP normal polling is a bit favorable to republicans if were weighting them i'd say add 2 dem for it being them than +2 r for it being for a specific group.
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #41 on: November 04, 2016, 01:19:41 pm »

Well, this is more than a bit relieving.

Senate numbers suggest that NC and MO might be slipping away, though...
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #42 on: November 04, 2016, 01:53:17 pm »

Allen Mears ‏@AllenMears  2m2 minutes ago
.@ppppolls latest: Hillary's real firewall: WOMEN

NH Women 53-39 +14C
NV W 52-40 +12C
WI W 55-34 +21C
PA W 51-41 +10C
NC W 53-41 +12C
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Virginia C
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« Reply #43 on: November 04, 2016, 01:58:06 pm »

Senate numbers suggest that NC and MO might be slipping away, though...

I'd hardly say that. They are in line with what we've been seeing for some time now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/mo/missouri_senate_blunt_vs_kander-5631.html

They are both still essentially tossups. I think NC will be determined by whether Trump or Clinton wins it, and by how much (C+3 or more could bring Ross over I think). Missouri, who knows. But really those numbers shouldn't change your outlook given other recent polls for those races.
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Jefferson and St Charles Parishes will save JBE
jamespol
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« Reply #44 on: November 04, 2016, 01:59:49 pm »

Senate numbers suggest that NC and MO might be slipping away, though...

I'd hardly say that. They are in line with what we've been seeing for some time now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/mo/missouri_senate_blunt_vs_kander-5631.html

They are both still essentially tossups. I think NC will be determined by whether Trump or Clinton wins it, and by how much (C+3 or more could bring Ross over I think). Missouri, who knows. But really those numbers shouldn't change your outlook given other recent polls for those races.

A lot of people have totally gave up on Kander or Koster winning MO SEN or MO GOV. They say its too hard and impossible.
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2016, 02:03:01 pm »

Senate numbers suggest that NC and MO might be slipping away, though...

I'd hardly say that. They are in line with what we've been seeing for some time now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/mo/missouri_senate_blunt_vs_kander-5631.html

They are both still essentially tossups. I think NC will be determined by whether Trump or Clinton wins it, and by how much (C+3 or more could bring Ross over I think). Missouri, who knows. But really those numbers shouldn't change your outlook given other recent polls for those races.

I certainly hope you're right. Ross winning would be especially heartening, but for that to happen, I think that the AA share of the electorate needs to stay roughly where it was in 2012 - and it's currently far behind...
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snowguy716
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« Reply #46 on: November 04, 2016, 03:52:14 pm »

Well, this is more than a bit relieving.

Senate numbers suggest that NC and MO might be slipping away, though...
They need five to take the senate... the three (NH, PA, and WI) plus IL is a gimme plus one of IN, NC, or MO. 
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #47 on: November 04, 2016, 10:45:54 pm »

Will we get anymore Ohio numbers?
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Hammy
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« Reply #48 on: November 04, 2016, 10:51:23 pm »


On election night--I don't see anymore polls being taken (though I don't understand while they're still polling Missouri either.)
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