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| | | | |-+  MO/NC/PA/NV/WI-PPP (D): Blunt +2, Burr +3, McGinty +2, Masto +3, Feingold +5
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Author Topic: MO/NC/PA/NV/WI-PPP (D): Blunt +2, Burr +3, McGinty +2, Masto +3, Feingold +5  (Read 12803 times)
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« on: November 04, 2016, 10:33:14 am »

Missouri
46% Roy Blunt (R, inc.)
44% Jason Kander (D)

North Carolina
48% Richard Burr (R, inc.)
45% Deborah Ross (D)

Pennsylvania
46% Katie McGinty (D)
44% Pat Toomey (R, inc.)

Nevada
47% Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)
44% Joe Heck (R)

Wisconsin
49% Russ Feingold (D)
44% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143903/NationalMemo112-Final.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 10:42:21 am »

Conducted for a liberal website, so very good news for Blunt and Burr.
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 10:44:05 am »

Have to admit, it would be sad but also pretty amusing if Ross, Kander and Bayh ended up losing their races after Tester/Schumer said they pulled tens of millions out of Florida so they could focus on more winnable races.
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 10:45:34 am »

Conducted for a liberal website, so very good news for Blunt and Burr.

Just because PPP conducted a poll for a liberal firm doesn't mean they changed their methodology to skew left.
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 11:03:22 am »

Ugh, Feingold only up 5.
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 11:43:47 am »

Conducted for a liberal website, so very good news for Blunt and Burr.
Stop. PPP doesn't change its methodology based on its clients.

Good polls for Blunt and especially Burr. WI was never going to be a GOP hold. McGinty will win PA, and CCM is increasing her lead in NV; together with early voting that race is now definitely going in her direction. If we keep NC and MO out of these I'm happy, so these are quite good numbers for the GOP.
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 11:46:07 am »

Conducted for a liberal website, so very good news for Blunt and Burr.
Stop. PPP doesn't change its methodology based on its clients.

Good polls for Blunt and especially Burr. WI was never going to be a GOP hold. McGinty will win PA, and CCM is increasing her lead in NV; together with early voting that race is now definitely going in her direction. If we keep NC and MO out of these I'm happy, so these are quite good numbers for the GOP.

I do think Greitens winning would be very bad for the state's economy. Koster is still favored fundamentally, just the outsider year is hurting him. Kind of like it hurts Blunt.

I want Kander to win, but would not be as angry if Blunt won. Blunt is far from the worst Southern Republican.
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 11:49:56 am »

NV and WI should be safe for the Dems. PA is closer, but McGinty looks to be in good shape. Those MO/NC numbers are a bit more disappointing, but if Clinton wins NC by enough, she could pull Ross over the top.
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I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 11:51:46 am »

NV and WI should be safe for the Dems. PA is closer, but McGinty looks to be in good shape. Those MO/NC numbers are a bit more disappointing, but if Clinton wins NC by enough, she could pull Ross over the top.

Yes, it is time to give up on MO and NC Senate, they are clearly unwinnable due to emails, right?

[/atlas over reacting]
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 11:55:32 am »

NV and WI should be safe for the Dems. PA is closer, but McGinty looks to be in good shape. Those MO/NC numbers are a bit more disappointing, but if Clinton wins NC by enough, she could pull Ross over the top.

Yes, it is time to give up on MO and NC Senate, they are clearly unwinnable due to emails, right?

[/atlas over reacting]
You basically overreact to all MO polls ("should I just give up on Koster and Kander?") so not really your place to call others out on overreacting lol.
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 11:57:21 am »

NV and WI should be safe for the Dems. PA is closer, but McGinty looks to be in good shape. Those MO/NC numbers are a bit more disappointing, but if Clinton wins NC by enough, she could pull Ross over the top.

Yes, it is time to give up on MO and NC Senate, they are clearly unwinnable due to emails, right?

[/atlas over reacting]

When did I say we should give up on those races? I said that these particular numbers are disappointing, but of course neither race is over.
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I think Saccone has this. Remaining precincts in Allegheny are only slightly pro-Lamb.
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2016, 12:00:12 pm »

I don't have a whole lot of faith in polling this year, so I could see all these races going either way (along with NH and IN).
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 03:51:53 pm »

Ron Jon! Only down by 5 in a think progress poll that adores feingold? great result! TOSSUP WISEN
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 04:03:20 pm »

Ron Jon! Only down by 5 in a think progress poll that adores feingold? great result! TOSSUP WISEN

His name isn't Jon.
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 04:13:54 pm »

I see my magick has allowed Feingold to pull away with this again.  I'll keep brewing the goods, folks.
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 04:35:32 pm »

Ron Jon! Only down by 5 in a think progress poll that adores feingold? great result! TOSSUP WISEN

His name isn't Jon.
Ron Jon is a nickname he gave himself.
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2016, 09:40:09 pm »

Ron Jon! Only down by 5 in a think progress poll that adores feingold? great result! TOSSUP WISEN

His name isn't Jon.
Ron Jon is a nickname he gave himself.

Oh, I thought he said "Run Jon!"

Anyway, Johnson is terrible and he needs to lose, and I think he will, but narrowly. Maybe my Tommy Thompson levels.
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2016, 09:51:57 pm »

NH - Hassan +3
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 11:54:48 pm »

NH - Hassan +3

Great!
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2016, 12:01:07 am »

NV and WI should be safe for the Dems. PA is closer, but McGinty looks to be in good shape. Those MO/NC numbers are a bit more disappointing, but if Clinton wins NC by enough, she could pull Ross over the top.

Yes, it is time to give up on MO and NC Senate, they are clearly unwinnable due to emails, right?

[/atlas over reacting]

No don't be silly. It Won't be because of emails, NC is likely lost because of dog whistling in that one ad Burr threw out.

And MO was always gonna be crazy, same way CO 2014 was Dem in the bag even with Udall's floundering until turnout happened.
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E: -7.4
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2016, 02:20:05 am »

These all look about right, actually.
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« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2017, 02:25:55 pm »

Junk polls
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2017, 12:42:15 am »

In retrospect, I wonder if Kay Hagan should've just tried again.


Junk polls

Blunt and Masto were mostly correct, and Burr was still within the MOE.


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Atlas PM Score:

S: 3.7
E: -7.4
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