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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3
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Author Topic: Iowa - Emerson: Trump +3  (Read 2261 times)
Wiz in Wis
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« on: November 04, 2016, 10:39:23 am »
« edited: November 04, 2016, 10:46:55 am by Wiz in Wis »

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/794562356864913408

Trump 44
Clinton 41
Johnson 5
Stein 4
Unsure 5

***modified from earlier, they fixed the tweet.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 10:40:10 am »

That's probably right. Maybe it will be closer but its Trump's to lose.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 10:40:21 am »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf


IOWA TOPLINE:
Trump 44%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 5%
Stein 4%
Unsure 5%

@HillaryClinton: +35/-63 (-28)
@realDonaldTrump: +47/-51 (-4)
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 10:40:53 am »

Iowa will be close.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 10:41:52 am »

The senate numbers look kind of ridiculous though.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 10:43:07 am »

Ugh, we're not going to win this if we only win Iowa by 3.
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henster
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 10:44:10 am »

Emerson is landlines only.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 10:44:13 am »

I wonder if Selzer is going to do a final poll of IA. They're probably going to show something similar anyway but I would like to see their result.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 10:44:15 am »

I think Emerson has actually managed to undersell Trump a bit here. He probably is up 2 or so, so Emerson should be showing T+5.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 10:45:48 am »

I think Emerson has actually managed to undersell Trump a bit here. He probably is up 2 or so, so Emerson should be showing T+5.

And if this is the truth, Trump will do about as well as Bush did here in 2004. Same with Ohio.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 10:51:55 am »

I think Emerson has actually managed to undersell Trump a bit here. He probably is up 2 or so, so Emerson should be showing T+5.

And if this is the truth, Trump will do about as well as Bush did here in 2004. Same with Ohio.

PA is looking similar as well (narrow 2.5 point loss).
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2016, 10:54:22 am »

Emerson rule: IA is tied.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 10:56:24 am »

IA will be within a point either way
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 11:04:01 am »

Despite being behind overall, Clinton continues to dominate the early voting:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx

Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 34
Stein - 4
Johnson - 3

SENATE (which overall is 60-32) early votes:

Grassley - 48
Judge - 45
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 11:07:37 am »

I think these early voting numbers may explain why Hillary visiting Iowa in the final week, because her campaign knows that not only does she currently have a big EV lead, but that the remaining electorate REALLY dislikes her, so no need to get them worked up...
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 11:17:01 am »
« Edited: November 04, 2016, 11:20:29 am by StatesPoll »

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/794562356864913408

Trump 44
Clinton 41
Johnson 5
Stein 4
Unsure 5

***modified from earlier, they fixed the tweet.

Red Avatars
before make fun of Emerson IA Poll, would you do it at least after read the crosstabs?

1. Emerson is a landline pollster blah blah blah
wrong.
read the page 6
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf

Landline Only 66 LV(Valid percent 9.6%)
Cellphone only 115 LV(Valid percent 16.8%)
Both 506 LV (Valid percent 73.6%)

2. skewed for TRUMP?
2012 Ballot
Obama 52%, Romney 46% exactly same as 2012 Iowa results

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dspNY
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2016, 11:19:39 am »

Despite being behind overall, Clinton continues to dominate the early voting:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx

Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 34
Stein - 4
Johnson - 3

SENATE (which overall is 60-32) early votes:

Grassley - 48
Judge - 45

If Clinton actually has a 23 point early vote lead, she'll win the state (I don't think she leads by 23 according to the party ID stats unless Trump is hemorrhaging R's who didn't caucus for him)
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2016, 11:20:55 am »

Quote
StatesPoll

Actually its Trump +2.7

Am i doing it right?
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 11:22:07 am »

Quote
StatesPoll

Actually its Trump +2.7

Am i doing it right?

yes sure. I'm always pro-demicals Wink

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Arch
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2016, 11:27:15 am »

Friends, this is Emerson showing Trump with only +3.
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2016, 11:38:03 am »

I really hope we got a good pollster to poll Iowa before the election. The lack of Iowa polls has been very annoying, and while I could buy Trump being narrowly ahead here, I'd rather not be too quick to trust Emerson.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 11:44:20 am »

Wait, only Trumpy by 3 if none of the hip young whippersnappers that live along the Mighty Miss get a ring? 

SWEET SASSY MOLLASEY!  I am right AGAIN!  Clinton wins here in a squeaker!

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2016, 11:44:55 am »

I really hope we got a good pollster to poll Iowa before the election. The lack of Iowa polls has been very annoying, and while I could buy Trump being narrowly ahead here, I'd rather not be too quick to trust Emerson.

I would be shocked if we don't get a Selzer poll tomorrow night.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2016, 11:48:37 am »

New Poll: Iowa President by Emerson College on 2016-11-03

Summary: D: 41%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ReapSow
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2016, 01:30:18 pm »

Ugh, we're not going to win this if we only win Iowa by 3.
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