At this point, can anyone else win?

[Inmate Trump]

I'm 20 years old and this is really the first primary that I've paid close attention to.  The last, in 2000, wasn't that exciting since everybody with half a brain already knew which candidate would win their respective primaries long before the first vote was cast.

It's a bit more interesting this time around, for me anyway, because there's now 9 candidates fighting for the nomination.  I know if the election were held today, all indications are that Dean would win.

My question is, at this stage in the primary race can another candidate actually begin to overcome Dean in the polls and beat him in the election - even with Iowa and N.H. less than a month away?  I guess all things are possible in politics (after all, Bill Clinton was elected--twice), but is there a situation any of you see where an anti-Dean candidate could win the nomination?  Any way that Dean could drop so low in the polls that quickly to cost him the nomination?

[Wakie]

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

... and Dole, and Mondale, and McGovern, and Goldwater, and Stevenson...

[Inmate Trump]

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

True, but N.H. isn't the only key state Dean is currently leading in.  In fact, Dean now leads in all early states, at least the ones I've found polls for.  It would take a lot to knock Dean off now, I think.  Do you see it differently?

[© tweed]

Unless something unforseen happens, Dean is the nominee.  Clark is probably running second and could catch dean, but I doubt it.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

I'm 20 years old and this is really the first primary that I've paid close attention to.  The last, in 2000, wasn't that exciting since everybody with half a brain already knew which candidate would win their respective primaries long before the first vote was cast.

It's a bit more interesting this time around, for me anyway, because there's now 9 candidates fighting for the nomination.  I know if the election were held today, all indications are that Dean would win.

My question is, at this stage in the primary race can another candidate actually begin to overcome Dean in the polls and beat him in the election - even with Iowa and N.H. less than a month away?  I guess all things are possible in politics (after all, Bill Clinton was elected--twice), but is there a situation any of you see where an anti-Dean candidate could win the nomination?  Any way that Dean could drop so low in the polls that quickly to cost him the nomination?

Well, there could be a situation where if things get worse in Iraq, more deaths these last few days have occured, that can galvanize Dean's chances of getting the nomination. However, Clark is more than qualified to be Commander and Chief. Both candidates would start looking real good.

[TomAtPitt]

Yes, another candidate could still win. While Dean is leading, he still is not polling a majority of the vote in any state. The early primaries should provide eventually for someone to arise as a clear challenger to Dean for the nomination. Once that happens, there will be alot of rallying to that candidate as there are many people in the Democratic Party who don't like him(calling the DLC which Clinton once headed the Republican wing of the Democratic Party didn't help) and many who are concerned about Dean's electability. In fact, I would predict at the end of the day Dean won't win the nomination.

[© tweed]

Yes, another candidate could still win. While Dean is leading, he still is not polling a majority of the vote in any state. The early primaries should provide eventually for someone to arise as a clear challenger to Dean for the nomination. Once that happens, there will be alot of rallying to that candidate as there are many people in the Democratic Party who don't like him(calling the DLC which Clinton once headed the Republican wing of the Democratic Party didn't help) and many who are concerned about Dean's electability. In fact, I would predict at the end of the day Dean won't win the nomination.

How much you wanna bet?

[agcatter]

A month ago I just couldn't visualize the Democrats jumping off a cliff with Dean.  It was just too irrational to be true.  However, I'm finally convinced they are really, really going to do it.  Hard to believe any political party could be this suicidal.  Well, I guess they've done it before - 72 for example.

The only downside for our side is that Dean is going to can Terry McAulliffe.  Lord, I'm going to miss that guy.  He was sure great for the Republican Party.

[StevenNick]

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

They weren't running in ridiculously front-loaded primaries, though.  If Dean wins NH and Iowa, I just don't see that there is any time to stop Dean.  The "Big Mo" will propel him too far too fast for anyone to catch him.

[Gustaf]

Everything is possible, but Dean's chances of winning are very, very high. Something special probably needs to happen. Still, Iowa and NH are small, it doesnt take a lot of voters to change their minds, in order for the results to change. And if Dean would lose these two, or even one of them, I think it could really hurt his image as front-runner, which is the main thing going for him anyway.

[NorthernDog]

Dean's supporters seem more highly committed to their candidate than the other's supporters. As long as the "anti-Dean" movement is splintered between 5 others, Dean will win the nomination with support from  less than half of the primary voters.   We have an interesting 60 days ahead of us!

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Dean should win but the other canidates will give him a run for his money.

Not all of the other candidates can give Dean a run for his money. Clark, Lieberman, and Gephadt can, but the rest, no.

[© tweed]

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

They weren't running in ridiculously front-loaded primaries, though.  If Dean wins NH and Iowa, I just don't see that there is any time to stop Dean.  The "Big Mo" will propel him too far too fast for anyone to catch him.

Clark could win on Feb 2 and have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

They weren't running in ridiculously front-loaded primaries, though.  If Dean wins NH and Iowa, I just don't see that there is any time to stop Dean.  The "Big Mo" will propel him too far too fast for anyone to catch him.

Clark could win on Feb 2 and have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

Why don't you see it hapening MiamiU?

[© tweed]

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

They weren't running in ridiculously front-loaded primaries, though.  If Dean wins NH and Iowa, I just don't see that there is any time to stop Dean.  The "Big Mo" will propel him too far too fast for anyone to catch him.

Clark could win on Feb 2 and have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

Why don't you see it hapening MiamiU?

Because clark is trailing or is neck and neck is most of the states he HAS to win. (OK, AZ, SC)

[agcatter]

.....in France.

[jravnsbo]

A dean loss to Gephardt in IA, would be easiest scenario.  It would galvanize Gephardt's campaign and be a major surprise as Dean is now EXPECTED to win.  

I'm 20 years old and this is really the first primary that I've paid close attention to.  The last, in 2000, wasn't that exciting since everybody with half a brain already knew which candidate would win their respective primaries long before the first vote was cast.

It's a bit more interesting this time around, for me anyway, because there's now 9 candidates fighting for the nomination.  I know if the election were held today, all indications are that Dean would win.

My question is, at this stage in the primary race can another candidate actually begin to overcome Dean in the polls and beat him in the election - even with Iowa and N.H. less than a month away?  I guess all things are possible in politics (after all, Bill Clinton was elected--twice), but is there a situation any of you see where an anti-Dean candidate could win the nomination?  Any way that Dean could drop so low in the polls that quickly to cost him the nomination?

[jravnsbo]

Openly laughing , good one.

I was thinking the other day of a comment Dean made ( Yes I know there are many!) but he talked about how he narrowly won his last election in Vermont because of signing the civil unions bill.  Yeah so I guess with a close win by a liberal ina  lieral state he decided to run nationally harder to the left, yeah that makes sense.

.....in France.

[Gustaf]

Openly laughing , good one.

I was thinking the other day of a comment Dean made ( Yes I know there are many!) but he talked about how he narrowly won his last election in Vermont because of signing the civil unions bill.  Yeah so I guess with a close win by a liberal ina  lieral state he decided to run nationally harder to the left, yeah that makes sense.

.....in France.

Yeah, good timing there.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Openly laughing , good one.

I was thinking the other day of a comment Dean made ( Yes I know there are many!) but he talked about how he narrowly won his last election in Vermont because of signing the civil unions bill.  Yeah so I guess with a close win by a liberal ina  lieral state he decided to run nationally harder to the left, yeah that makes sense.

.....in France.

I just wish he'd move more to the center. I still won't support him, because that would only be the perception he wants to portray of himself. Once he got the nomination, he'd swing hard left again.

[Inmate Trump]

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

They weren't running in ridiculously front-loaded primaries, though.  If Dean wins NH and Iowa, I just don't see that there is any time to stop Dean.  The "Big Mo" will propel him too far too fast for anyone to catch him.

Clark could win on Feb 2 and have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

Why don't you see it hapening MiamiU?

In the polls that I've seen, Dean is leading most of the Feb. 3 states.  These include Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.  Gephardt leads in his home state of Missouri.  I haven't seen a poll for North Dakota.  Furthermore, the states that closely follow the Feb. 3 primaries (those on the 7th, 8th, and 10th) all seem to be going to Dean, according to the polls anyway.

Clark just doesn't have a breakthrough state, the way I see it.  He's not really *leading* anywhere.  In some states, like South Carolina, he's running just behind Dean or neck and neck with Dean...but after Dean gets Iowa, N.H., etc, that'll push him higher in S.C., leaving Clark and others trailing behind.

But then again, this is the first primary election I've really watched closely.  I could be way off.

[jravnsbo]

Sounds about right.  Dean wins the first 2 he will look inevitable and get a boost from the wins and free media.

ND is favoring Gephardt and is expected to win it if (big IF) he survives Iowa.

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

They weren't running in ridiculously front-loaded primaries, though.  If Dean wins NH and Iowa, I just don't see that there is any time to stop Dean.  The "Big Mo" will propel him too far too fast for anyone to catch him.

Clark could win on Feb 2 and have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

Why don't you see it hapening MiamiU?

In the polls that I've seen, Dean is leading most of the Feb. 3 states.  These include Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.  Gephardt leads in his home state of Missouri.  I haven't seen a poll for North Dakota.  Furthermore, the states that closely follow the Feb. 3 primaries (those on the 7th, 8th, and 10th) all seem to be going to Dean, according to the polls anyway.

Clark just doesn't have a breakthrough state, the way I see it.  He's not really *leading* anywhere.  In some states, like South Carolina, he's running just behind Dean or neck and neck with Dean...but after Dean gets Iowa, N.H., etc, that'll push him higher in S.C., leaving Clark and others trailing behind.

But then again, this is the first primary election I've really watched closely.  I could be way off.

[Wakie]

This campaign is really just in its infancy.  Sure, Dean leads in the polls with about 25% of likely Democrats, but what happens when some of the other candidates drop?

A lot of folks feel that it was Dean who cranked up the negative rhetoric by attacking Leiberman, Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards for voting in favor of the war resolution.  It will be hard for supporters of those candidates to go over to Dean.  More likely they will go to which ever one of them which is left OR to Clark.

[jravnsbo]

That is the huge debate Dem face.  If they drop dean will he break away?  see Dean as indpendant thread.

Dems should have dropped out and gotten behind a centrist candidate long before this.  Now I think even if some drop out it will be after Dean wins a lot  of victories and it would be forced into the convention for a decision.

This campaign is really just in its infancy.  Sure, Dean leads in the polls with about 25% of likely Democrats, but what happens when some of the other candidates drop?

A lot of folks feel that it was Dean who cranked up the negative rhetoric by attacking Leiberman, Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards for voting in favor of the war resolution.  It will be hard for supporters of those candidates to go over to Dean.  More likely they will go to which ever one of them which is left OR to Clark.