Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 19, 2019, 06:17:12 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4  (Read 1050 times)
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,474
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 04, 2016, 01:10:51 pm »

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/

Trump - 49% (50)
Clinton - 45% (46)
Johnson - 6% (3)

Clinton is still winning the early vote: 51% to 43%
Trump wins day-of voters: 57% to 34%

Trump wins 65% of white voters; Clinton wins 80% of black voters
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 01:13:04 pm »

They are both losing to Johnson, hehe Wink
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,198
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 01:14:14 pm »

The Re-boundinging!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,925
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 01:16:11 pm »

Something fishy is going on here. There's no way that GA and NH are both close.
Logged

My battleground map for 2020, based on only the highest quality #analysis from Atlas.

HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,474
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 01:17:30 pm »

Georgia has been like this the whole cycle, tie to +6, with no real correlation with national numbers.

New Hampshire is overreacting to the Comey letter.
Logged
SunSt0rm
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 430
Netherlands


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 01:18:47 pm »

JohnsonSurge!
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 471


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 01:22:41 pm »

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 01:27:29 pm »

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/

Trump - 49% (50)
Clinton - 45% (46)
Johnson - 6% (3)

Clinton is still winning the early vote: 51% to 43%
Trump wins day-of voters: 57% to 34%

Trump wins 65% of white voters; Clinton wins 80% of black voters


If Trump only wins 65% of white voters he loses
Logged
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,474
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 01:28:47 pm »

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.

SurveyUSA always has junky crosstabs. Both of these are landline pollsters. OpinionSavvy used to post the details, but got mocked, and now just release the topline.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 01:37:37 pm »

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.

SurveyUSA always has junky crosstabs. Both of these are landline pollsters. OpinionSavvy used to post the details, but got mocked, and now just release the topline.
IDK about OpinionSavvy, but SUSA is not a landline pollster. And SUSA polled RV, not LV.
SUSA's sample size of EV was just 180, so MOE is pretty big.
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
HillOfANight
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,474
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 01:53:55 pm »

http://www.surveyusa.com/methodology.html

SurveyUSA is the first research company to appreciate that opinion research can be made more affordable, more consistent and in some ways more accurate by eliminating the single largest cost of conducting research, and a possible source of bias: the human interviewer.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=874ea794-a227-44a0-a81b-bdc09dd92fac

Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,276
United States


P P
View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 07:43:34 am »

New Poll: Georgia President by Opinion Savvy on 2016-11-03

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines