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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4
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Author Topic: GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4  (Read 1158 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: November 04, 2016, 01:10:51 pm »

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/

Trump - 49% (50)
Clinton - 45% (46)
Johnson - 6% (3)

Clinton is still winning the early vote: 51% to 43%
Trump wins day-of voters: 57% to 34%

Trump wins 65% of white voters; Clinton wins 80% of black voters
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 01:13:04 pm »

They are both losing to Johnson, hehe Wink
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 01:14:14 pm »

The Re-boundinging!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 01:16:11 pm »

Something fishy is going on here. There's no way that GA and NH are both close.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 01:17:30 pm »

Georgia has been like this the whole cycle, tie to +6, with no real correlation with national numbers.

New Hampshire is overreacting to the Comey letter.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 01:18:47 pm »

JohnsonSurge!
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 01:22:41 pm »

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 01:27:29 pm »

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/

Trump - 49% (50)
Clinton - 45% (46)
Johnson - 6% (3)

Clinton is still winning the early vote: 51% to 43%
Trump wins day-of voters: 57% to 34%

Trump wins 65% of white voters; Clinton wins 80% of black voters


If Trump only wins 65% of white voters he loses
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 01:28:47 pm »

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.

SurveyUSA always has junky crosstabs. Both of these are landline pollsters. OpinionSavvy used to post the details, but got mocked, and now just release the topline.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 01:37:37 pm »

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.

SurveyUSA always has junky crosstabs. Both of these are landline pollsters. OpinionSavvy used to post the details, but got mocked, and now just release the topline.
IDK about OpinionSavvy, but SUSA is not a landline pollster. And SUSA polled RV, not LV.
SUSA's sample size of EV was just 180, so MOE is pretty big.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 01:53:55 pm »

http://www.surveyusa.com/methodology.html

SurveyUSA is the first research company to appreciate that opinion research can be made more affordable, more consistent and in some ways more accurate by eliminating the single largest cost of conducting research, and a possible source of bias: the human interviewer.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=874ea794-a227-44a0-a81b-bdc09dd92fac

Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
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Dave Leip
leip
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 07:43:34 am »

New Poll: Georgia President by Opinion Savvy on 2016-11-03

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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