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  PA: Harper - TIE
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Author Topic: PA: Harper - TIE  (Read 5737 times)
dfwlibertylover
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« on: November 04, 2016, 01:33:19 pm »

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3
Trump - 46
Clinton - 46
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 01:34:32 pm »

time for panic again Cheesy
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 01:35:00 pm »

Before everyone wets themselves, this is an (R). They had Clinton+2 in late September. Same kind of small slide, then, that everyone else showed from Comey.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 01:35:46 pm »

Considering that this is Harper, I'm not too worried.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 01:36:29 pm »

No need for panic. Hillary will take PA.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 01:36:39 pm »

Before everyone wets themselves, this is an (R). They had Clinton+2 in late September. Same kind of small slide, then, that everyone else showed from Comey.

interesting

B- according to 538 with a tiny pro-D-house effect.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 01:36:43 pm »

So Clinton by 10.  NOICE!!!
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Buzz
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 01:37:12 pm »

This ain't over yet!
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 01:38:17 pm »

From wikipedia IIRC:
Harper Polling correctly polled the 2013 Senate special election in Massachusetts. Harper predicted the outcome of the New Jersey Senate special election to the exact margin of 11%. [7]

Harper has also polled the 2014 Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor race and the 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.[8][9] Harper was the only Pennsylvania pollster to predict the size of Tom Wolf's landslide Democratic primary victory for Governor. [10]
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 01:38:54 pm »

SENATE: McGinty - 44, Toomey - 44
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 01:39:23 pm »

Even if Clinton wins it, I think it's possible that PA will be more Republican the nation as a whole for the first time since... ?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2016, 01:39:31 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2016, 01:41:42 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »

"B-" pollster.

They had Clinton +2 SEP. 21-22.


Nov 2-3:

Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump 46  (+3)
Johnson 2  (-6)  


Johnson is collapsing towards Trump. Plausible.
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Hammy
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 01:41:48 pm »

From wikipedia IIRC:
Harper Polling correctly polled the 2013 Senate special election in Massachusetts. Harper predicted the outcome of the New Jersey Senate special election to the exact margin of 11%. [7]

Harper has also polled the 2014 Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor race and the 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.[8][9] Harper was the only Pennsylvania pollster to predict the size of Tom Wolf's landslide Democratic primary victory for Governor. [10]

So essentially what you're saying is they'd be right if this wasn't a presidential year.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 01:42:18 pm »

Junk Polls come out at... daytime?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 01:43:02 pm »

all depends on philly.

if philly and "the collar" get out the vote, western PA isn't a factor anymore.

since the PA subs have been quite pro-obama in 2012, i can't see them being more pro-trumo in 2016.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 01:47:50 pm »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39

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Yank2133
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2016, 01:49:29 pm »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2016, 01:49:59 pm »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

Bahahaha these are AMAZING.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 01:50:43 pm »

What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

It is so good, that they earned "B-" Tongue
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2016, 01:51:30 pm »


You don't need to keep telling us how bad Nate Silver has been this cycle.
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Mallow
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2016, 01:51:52 pm »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 01:52:22 pm »


It sounds like, to me, anything below a B+ rating is dogsh**t, considering Gravis and this are both rated B.
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Luminous Longstreet
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2016, 01:53:11 pm »

Clinton will win PA by +2.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2016, 01:54:42 pm »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2016, 01:56:09 pm »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

But I mean, this is all MOE movement...they only had HRC up by 2 in Sept when she was up by 8-10, so this trendline isn't surprising.
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