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Author Topic: MI: Strategic National (R) - TIE  (Read 6754 times)
Kalimantan
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2016, 03:03:00 pm »

Seems that nearly every poll is either junk. Why do them if you're not going to try to be accurate?

Are you looking for an answer more complicated than "to. make. money" ?
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Buzz
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2016, 03:36:19 pm »

Trump's gonna have to win Michigan or Pennsylvania.  Tall order but not impossible
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dirks
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« Reply #27 on: November 05, 2016, 04:45:31 pm »

Another junk Republican pollster flooding the zone

so is PeePeePee
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Ebsy
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« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2016, 04:46:13 pm »

Another junk Republican pollster flooding the zone

so is PeePeePee

Thank God for only 3 more days of this s[Inks].
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Ljube
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« Reply #29 on: November 05, 2016, 06:17:53 pm »

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QE
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« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2016, 06:31:52 pm »


Keep telling yourselves that.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #31 on: November 14, 2016, 01:00:10 pm »

I will. So will Michigan's 16 electors come December 19.

Freedom Poll!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: November 14, 2016, 05:05:42 pm »

It is interesting how few polls in the last week or so of the election actually had Michigan as a tie or Trump leaning, or even showed the race as remarkably close.

You had this 538 unranked pollster showing the race as a tie, a SurveyMonkey (C +2), Trafalgar Group (T+2), and a Google Consumer Surveys showing C+1. These are all relatively questionable polling firms

Meanwhile the EpicMarist (A-) showed it as C+4 with a large number of "others" and "undecideds".

Ipsos was arguably the closest of the higher quality polling firms (538 A-) showing C+1 with relatively few undecided and 3rd party voters.

I guess the question is did some of the sketchier polling outfits, and Strategic Decisions:

1.)  simply do a better job of forecasting the composition of the electorate, or
2.) did polls overestimate Clinton LV % numbers,
3.) Or did undecided & 3rd party voters break heavily Trump in the last few days of the election which would not have been captured in polling numbers?
4.) Or do we just fall back on the cliche that Michigan polling is just historically flawed and we should completely ignore all polls coming out of Michigan?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #33 on: November 14, 2016, 06:07:19 pm »

The accuracy is scary!
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Southern Delegate Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #34 on: November 17, 2016, 12:38:11 pm »

Wow, amazing poll! I wish all polls were this accurate.
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« Reply #35 on: December 22, 2017, 11:33:38 pm »

Re-posting on why I've been saying MI is a dark horse:

MI GOP primary;

2012: 996,499 voters. Romney 41% - Santorum 38%
2016: 1,323,589 voters. Trump 36% - Cruz 24%

That's a lot of voters coming out for Trump in the primary, which was never even competitive. In fact, more people voted in the GOP primary than the dem primary (1,205,552), and that race was extremely competitive (Sanders 49% - Clinton 48%). Unfortunately I could not compare GOP vs Dems primary numbers in previous elections because for democrats in 2008 the state was uncontested (because of a rule violation) and in 2004/2000 the state was a caucus.

Not saying primary support is necessarily indicative of general performance in any way, but the GOP outvoting the dems in blue MI should be at least some cause for concern among democrats. Trump's message plays really well among white-working class voters and union members - both of which MI has in abundant (Sanders did too). The state was almost tailor-made for him - were it not for the fact that it leans so heavily dem.

MI and VA are my two dark horses.
Congrats you’re dark horse theory was right.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #36 on: December 22, 2017, 11:39:09 pm »

Another junk Republican pollster flooding the zone
Yep, this poll was off by .4%. Junk poll!
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