Parts of Wisconsin are quite like Iowa, and quite as Democratic too.
I'm really more baffled at the Dems' competitiveness in Arkansas. Clinton's shadow must still be huge.
29% of self-described White Evangelical or Born-Again Christians in Arkansas voted for John Kerry. That's twice as high as just about anywhere else.
The Whitest county in Arkansas is in the Northeastern part of the state, very close to the Black Belt. Counties like that, in the South, are usually rock-solid GOP. This one voted narrowly for Kerry.
There is still a strong base of Democrat support in Southern Arkansas (and to a lesser extent Northeastern Arkansas), where they're white, in many case evangelical and still vote Democrat.
It's where Clinton was from and it was his base area.
Given the fact that the Little Rock metropolitan area splits roughly 50%-50% and CD3 (Northwest Arkansas) is extremely GOP and tends to vote 65%-35%, if the Democrats pull 55%-60% in the rest of the state, they can typically win by a close margin.
It's been harder and harder in recent years, but it is certainly less impossible than most everything else in the South nowadays.
