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  McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2
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Author Topic: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2  (Read 2348 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: November 04, 2016, 05:23:50 pm »
« edited: November 04, 2016, 05:25:33 pm by Castro »

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 44%

Conducted over Nov 1-3.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635048.html
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 05:25:25 pm »

nail-biter-ending.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:26:16 pm »

It's just like Fox but this will be a close Hillary win.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 05:26:50 pm »


It wont be.
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afleitch
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 05:27:14 pm »

Again, Nov 1-3.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 05:29:11 pm »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 05:29:56 pm »


And today is November 4th, your point is what exactly?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 05:30:05 pm »

it all comes down to the question if you believe this number:

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 05:30:20 pm »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.

Is that supposed to make sense?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 05:30:44 pm »

49-34 among Latinos is not likely.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:07 pm »

70% of Americans think sexual assault is not illegal.  That's messed up.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:15 pm »


The point is, the 1st in particular was a terrible day for democrat response rates in polls.
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:29 pm »

I doubt the race tightened this much. The Obama-Clinton coalition could actually turnout in which she outperforms the polls like 2012. 😉
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Horus
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:53 pm »

Not good.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:56 pm »


Huh
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afleitch
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 05:32:52 pm »


Yeah. They really need to take more care with this.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2016, 05:34:16 pm »

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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2016, 05:34:59 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2016, 05:42:32 pm by john cage bubblegum »


They have Latinos at only 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 05:35:06 pm »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.

Is that supposed to make sense?

Just calculated it, it comes out to an overall Clinton +2 lead.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2016, 05:35:53 pm »

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 7%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 92%
Johnson 3%
Clinton 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 39%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Midwest: Trump +9
Northeast: Clinton +15
South: Trump +7
West: Clinton +11
under $50k income: Clinton +2
over $50k income: Trump +1
no college degree: Trump +15
college degree: Clinton +18
white: Trump +12
black: Clinton +79
Latino: Clinton +15
white no college degree: Trump +30
white college degree: Clinton +10
age 18-29: Clinton +17
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-59: Trump +8
age 60+: Trump +5
men: Trump +12
women: Clinton +11
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2016, 05:37:31 pm »

Just a reminder that Obama's average lead in national polls was 0.7% right before election day.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 05:38:29 pm »

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 7%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 92%
Johnson 3%
Clinton 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 39%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Midwest: Trump +9
Northeast: Clinton +15
South: Trump +7
West: Clinton +11
under $50k income: Clinton +2
over $50k income: Trump +1
no college degree: Trump +15
college degree: Clinton +18
white: Trump +12
black: Clinton +79
Latino: Clinton +15
white no college degree: Trump +30
white college degree: Clinton +10
age 18-29: Clinton +17
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-59: Trump +8
age 60+: Trump +5
men: Trump +12
women: Clinton +11


Come on, Latino's +15 for Clinton. Latino Decisions has this almost at +60.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2016, 05:39:45 pm »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.

Is that supposed to make sense?

Just calculated it, it comes out to an overall Clinton +2 lead.

The thing I don't get is that this number implies that 8% of all early voters voted third party and that seems way off to me.  I would be shocked if it is more than 2-4% of the early vote.
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afleitch
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2016, 05:40:26 pm »


They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.
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m4567
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2016, 05:40:44 pm »

Just a reminder that Obama's average lead in national polls was 0.7% right before election day.

Thank you.
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