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  McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2
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Author Topic: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2  (Read 2341 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2016, 02:02:37 pm »


They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.

Yeah, I'd trust Latino Decisions simply because they get a larger sample size of Latinos than most polls. If you swapped out their samples and put in Latino Decision's samples in their recent state polls, Arizona looks a lot more interesting, and Florida and Nevada start looking like locks for Clinton.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2016, 02:06:03 pm »


They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.

Yeah, I'd trust Latino Decisions simply because they get a larger sample size of Latinos than most polls. If you swapped out their samples and put in Latino Decision's samples in their recent state polls, Arizona looks a lot more interesting, and Florida and Nevada start looking like locks for Clinton.
Advocacy groips tend not to provide reliable samples. They overestimated Democratic support compared to exit polls in 2012 and 2014
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2016, 02:06:26 pm »


They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.

Yeah, I'd trust Latino Decisions simply because they get a larger sample size of Latinos than most polls. If you swapped out their samples and put in Latino Decision's samples in their recent state polls, Arizona looks a lot more interesting, and Florida and Nevada start looking like locks for Clinton.
Advocacy groips tend not to provide reliable samples. They overestimated Democratic support compared to exit polls in 2012 and 2014
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heatcharger
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« Reply #53 on: November 05, 2016, 02:07:42 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 02:12:22 pm by heatcharger »

Advocacy groips tend not to provide reliable samples.

Latino Decisions isn't an advocacy group lol.

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Um... perhaps your candidate has alienated them in a way that no modern candidate ever has?
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #54 on: November 05, 2016, 02:10:53 pm »

Advocacy groips tend not to provide reliable samples.

Latino Decisions isn't an advocacy group lol.

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Um... perhaps your candidate has alienated them in a way that no modern candidate ever has?
I meant their polls were off the last two election cycles. Just check their twitter feed if you don't think they're an advocacy group
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heatcharger
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« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2016, 02:13:53 pm »

I meant their polls were off the last two election cycles. Just check their twitter feed if you don't think they're an advocacy group

I think comparing exit polls to pre-election polls is pretty unreliable. Regardless, in 2012 their final survey showed 73-25 Obama, when exit polls showed 71-27. Either their poll was wrong or the exit polls were. It's not a huge miss in the grand scheme of things and was probably much more accurate than the major national polls at the time.

And lol, I know, they hate Trump a lot, but that's not particularly surprising or indicative of the accuracy of their polls.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2016, 05:06:56 pm »

Alan Abramowitz just mentioned it on twitter. Since their last poll in September, which was Clinton +6, Trump has lost support among whites (+12 from +14), so his numbers improved exclusively due to big gains among non-whites.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2016, 05:21:47 pm »

Alan Abramowitz just mentioned it on twitter. Since their last poll in September, which was Clinton +6, Trump has lost support among whites (+12 from +14), so his numbers improved exclusively due to big gains among non-whites.
Yes, as I said, MOE that cancelled out by each other.  Literally all the polls showed that Pubs/undeciders/Johnson are coming home, but this one shows him losing support among whites and gaining among non-whites? OK, all right!
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