I'm floored at Trump's strength among Republicans. Virtually all intra-Party resistance has completely collapsed. If we've ever seen a time in which a major party has turned into a cult, this is it.
Should be noted that this poll is an outlier though. No other poll has Trump over 90% among Republicans. Even when I’m generous to Trump by using the “less smoothing” option at HuffPo (which puts him higher), the trendline has him at 86.8% support from Republicans, as compared to 90.5% support for Clinton for Dems:
GOP
Dems
So yes, Trump is cleaning up among Republicans, but there is still a small band of holdouts within the GOP, which is larger than the holdouts on the Dem. side for Clinton (and larger than the group of Republicans who didn’t vote for Romney in 2012).
EDIT: Caveat to the above: Looks like this poll hasn't been added to HuffPo yes, so I guess that could shift things when they add it.
Not really. It sort of 2012-unkewer misstake, if it is self-reported (I guess) Reps/Dems/Indys.
In this poll Trump is just +3 among Indys. So I guess, more Rep Indys said that they are Reps. Not to talk about self-cancelled MOE in different subgroups etc. (in this case Reps vs Indys among other).
I don’t understand your point about “more Rep Indys said that they are Reps”. What do you mean by that?
In any case, look, political party isn’t some fundamental characteristic of a person, like age. If you say you’re a Republican, then you’re a Republican*. If you say you’re an Independent, then you’re an Independent. You might say you’re an Independent and still mostly vote for one party or the other. Fine. What I’m saying though is that in the aggregate of all polls, Clinton is getting a larger share of support from self-described Dems than Trump is getting from self-described Republicans. This poll is different, but as I said, it’s an outlier in that regard.
That does
not mean that I’m trying to “unskew” this poll by suggesting that that one crosstab result means we should adjust the topline numbers. I’m simply saying that if you’re interested in the party crosstabs themselves, as opposed to the topline numbers, then you shouldn’t just look at the party crosstabs from a single poll. You should look to see if other polls give similar results.
*Sure, there is such a thing as party registration, at least in some states. But I don’t think that’s a terribly important distinction, since nearly every poll relies on self-identification, and registration is something that you can change too.
