McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 (user search)
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  McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2  (Read 3529 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« on: November 04, 2016, 05:23:50 PM »
« edited: November 04, 2016, 05:25:33 PM by Castro »

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 44%

Conducted over Nov 1-3.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635048.html
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 05:29:11 PM »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:35:06 PM »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.

Is that supposed to make sense?

Just calculated it, it comes out to an overall Clinton +2 lead.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 05:53:39 PM »

They have Latinos at only 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.
Why are you analysing this post selectively? 12 point lead amongst whites is ok but 15 point deficit with Latinos is not ok.

You're much more likely to get wacky subsample results with smaller samples. Whites are a much larger portion of any national poll, so their subsamples will have a smaller MOE. Meanwhile, 9% of a poll will have a large MOE.
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