Poll: How close will Florida be on Nov 8th ?
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  Poll: How close will Florida be on Nov 8th ?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Please indicate how close you think Florida will be won, come Nov 8th.
#1
Clinton win +5.0 or more		  
#2
Clinton win between +2.0 & +4.9		  
#3
Clinton win between +0.1 & +1.9		  
#4
Trump win between +0.1 & +1.9		  
#5
Trump win between +2.0 & +4.9		  
#6
Trump win +5.0 or more		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 106

Author Topic: Poll: How close will Florida be on Nov 8th ?  (Read 2164 times)
ProudModerate2
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« on: November 05, 2016, 02:06:40 AM »
« edited: November 05, 2016, 11:16:33 AM by ProudModerate2 »
Question : Please indicate how close you think Florida will be won, come Nov 8th.

Recent polls show Florida as either Toss-up or Lean Dem.
What do you think ?
Who will win The Sunshine State and by how much ?

Vote and discuss.

PS: 538 lists the states of Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan, as their top four (4) "tipping point chance" states.
Between now and Monday Nov 7th, I will prepare polls for these four critical states and will also throw-in a similar Nevada poll for added flavor.
Please watch for these upcoming polls.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 02:10:22 AM »
Florida will be won by hillary clinton by 2%. The female and Hispanic turnout is insane!!!!
New Hemishere will also go to Hillary clinton but it will be close.
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 02:19:11 AM »
Florida gonna Florida. I feel like no matter what else happens Tuesday, Florida is going to be stupid close, within 1-2%. Probably too close to call on election night once again, but not recount close.
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Baki
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 02:19:47 AM »
Double Obama2012 margin.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 02:22:30 AM »
Clinton by 3-4%.
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Hammy
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 02:22:34 AM »
Between Trump +0.5 and Clinton +2. I'm tilting Clinton but still not confident enough to call it either way (as I never am before election night.)
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Crumpets
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 02:24:46 AM »
It depends where you are in the country, I suppose. For me, it will be quite far, but if you live in the South, it will be much closer. Wink
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Cali123
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 03:15:45 AM »
In my opinion Hillary Clinton can carry Florida if the voter turn out is in her favor. However, it would be a close, very close!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2016, 03:19:51 AM »
Clinton by 2-4...  Never this confident about FL, but the early vote and extradordinary Clinton GOTV indicators make me oddly calm.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2016, 03:29:43 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 03:46:39 AM by Ogre Mage »
Clinton by 2-4%.  I think she is a stronger candidate in Florida than Obama was and she absolutely murdered Sanders here in the primary.  The country's changing demographics are definitely on display in Florida and Latino voters will come out strong for Clinton.  Her organization in this state is extremely strong.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2016, 05:21:46 AM »
Razor close. Ever so slightly lean Clinton, but I wouldn't bet money on it.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 05:33:28 AM »
i'm gonna say clinton by 7 tbh
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2016, 05:54:59 AM »
She's doing horribly with the white vote in polls. But looks like Hispanics could save her. Very tight race, 2012 redux.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2016, 06:05:49 AM »
Quote from: HillOfANight on November 05, 2016, 05:54:59 AM
She's doing horribly with the white vote in polls. But looks like Hispanics could save her. Very tight race, 2012 redux.

She's doing better than Obama
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2016, 06:53:12 AM »
H: +0.1-1.9
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mark_twain
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2016, 07:39:51 AM »

Clinton, by about 2%
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Devils30
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2016, 08:35:43 AM »
The NV early vote numbers make me think Trump should worry about FL. If hispanics are not counted enough in polls, it increases the margin Trump needs with whites.
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win win
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2016, 09:01:22 AM »
florida is 3 right of the nation

if hillary is leading at 2 at the moment, it'd go in Trump's column
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2016, 09:57:29 AM »
FL is right of the nation. I say Trump will win the state barely. He should win by 0.5%, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a recount.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2016, 09:59:29 AM »
Don't know, but my stomach says "very close" (within 0.5%) ...
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2016, 10:03:40 AM »
My gut says Clinton wins by just a little more than in 2012 - about 1% or so.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2016, 10:07:14 AM »
florida has been to the right of the nation. we don't know of that'll hold up this year, especially given trump's standing with latinxs.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2016, 10:14:35 AM »
I'm insane and say Clinton will win 53-44-3.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2016, 10:40:32 AM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 05, 2016, 06:05:49 AM
Quote from: HillOfANight on November 05, 2016, 05:54:59 AM
She's doing horribly with the white vote in polls. But looks like Hispanics could save her. Very tight race, 2012 redux.

She's doing better than Obama

I looked at RCP 2012, last credible polls (PPP and Marist nailed Florida). Steve Schale has been stressing a lot on her underperformance with whites. The upshot numbers may be skewed because they weighted by registration which they noted few public pollsters do.

PPP R+19
Among whites
Obama 40
Romney 59

Marist R+16
Obama 40
Romney 56

CNN exit polls R+24
Obama 37
Romney 61

---
Per the latest credible 2016 polls
Bloomberg R+16
Clinton 38
Trump 54

Upshot R+29
Clinton 29
Trump 58

Marist R+20
Clinton 35
Trump 55
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Ricky1121
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2016, 11:57:44 AM »
Trump by 0.5%
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