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  PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
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Author Topic: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4  (Read 3231 times)
john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #25 on: November 05, 2016, 02:27:17 pm »

Clinton will be fine in PA. The freiwal is safe.

I agree.
It's the New Hampshire brick in the wall, that has me worried.

Fortunately NV will replace NH in the freiwal if need be.  Although I believe Clinton will win NH, recent polls there are a bit concerning.

The freiwal really is comforting in these final anxious days of the campaign.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2016, 02:50:11 pm »

The friewal just got 5 feet higher
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #27 on: November 05, 2016, 03:56:10 pm »

Moo Linberg College underestimated Obama twice in their final poll by 4 and 3 points.  This is Safe for Hillary. 
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2016, 03:57:59 pm »

So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.

5 points behind - use the four way numbers please.

...no?

Johnson and Stein will probably get half of their polling numbers by election day.

Historically, what Third Parties get in the polls in the last few days is about what they get on election day, give or take a point.
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Hammy
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« Reply #29 on: November 05, 2016, 04:04:38 pm »

Looks about right.

Hillary should win PA by between 1-5%.

It could also be relatively close in the end.

Or relatively big in the end, closer to 10%.

It is tender, he is sworn by oath to throw shade at Clinton.

No, I'm just cautious in my predictions because the polls are relatively close in most swing states and the polls were pretty crappy in 2014 and this year (primaries) and other countries.

Once you throw a midterm year in as comparison with a presidential year, your whole argument is void.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #30 on: November 06, 2016, 03:34:56 am »
« Edited: November 06, 2016, 03:37:43 am by IceSpear »

So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.

5 points behind - use the four way numbers please.

...no?

Johnson and Stein will probably get half of their polling numbers by election day.

Historically, what Third Parties get in the polls in the last few days is about what they get on election day, give or take a point.

"give or take half of Stein's voting share"

Also, you're wrong. In 2008 Nader polled at 2.3% and Barr polled at 1.5%. They got 0.6% and 0.4%.
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