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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 13728 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #100 on: November 05, 2016, 08:12:45 pm »

His lead among independents is identical to statewide? That looks yuuuuugely suspect. Perhaps Iowa's Westvirginification isn't quite complete yet... then again I'm not one to unskew, but I'd like to know this pollster's methodology.
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
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« Reply #101 on: November 05, 2016, 08:13:00 pm »

I'm perfectly fine with trading Iowa for North Carolina. North Carolina has a yuge future of growth and Iowa is just "there" in the future.
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« Reply #102 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:08 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.
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« Reply #103 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:32 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Using this logic, Trump being under 50 in Utah points to a 40+ state win for Hillary.
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« Reply #104 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:45 pm »

I was right to say that Clinton should have pulled out of this state at least a week ago.
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« Reply #105 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:54 pm »

Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #106 on: November 05, 2016, 08:18:40 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Using this logic, Trump up six in Utah points to a 40+ state win for Hillary.
Yeah... the only other state outside her reach would be Wyoming, LOL. #BattlegroundWestVirginia
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
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« Reply #107 on: November 05, 2016, 08:18:55 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?
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« Reply #108 on: November 05, 2016, 08:20:45 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 
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« Reply #109 on: November 05, 2016, 08:21:54 pm »

Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.

Grow a pair.
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It reminds me of something. I of course mean Iowa. Iowa is like a ghetto, right?
They have a poverty and drug problem...
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« Reply #110 on: November 05, 2016, 08:22:54 pm »

Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.
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« Reply #111 on: November 05, 2016, 08:33:39 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Zero correlation.

Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.

I quit following 538's "analysis" a long time ago--there's so little sense to any of it.
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« Reply #112 on: November 05, 2016, 08:40:05 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 

Ouch. I missed this part...
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« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2016, 08:42:12 pm »

Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.

That's why early voting statistics might backfire a bit...
« Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 08:45:05 pm by Little Big BREXIT »Logged

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« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2016, 08:42:58 pm »

i'm just wondering why he didn't go on calling every other state stupid considering how successful he's been in this state.
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« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2016, 08:44:51 pm »

Wow, this is much more than I expected. I have a feeling that the complete midwestern is more closed than everyone realize. No wonder Clinton and Obama are going to Michigan on Monday
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« Reply #116 on: November 05, 2016, 08:50:47 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...
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« Reply #117 on: November 05, 2016, 08:51:54 pm »

Harry Enten already saw some of it in 2014

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-funny-happened-in-iowa-and-it-may-hurt-democrats-in-2016/
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« Reply #118 on: November 05, 2016, 08:53:51 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...
As I alreade wrote, I missed part about "under 35".

But in theory, since they have all the statics (even how many registred R/D/I in each age group, gender and so on), they could reweight for it as well. But I don't think that it possible with such a small sample.
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« Reply #119 on: November 05, 2016, 08:54:20 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.
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« Reply #120 on: November 05, 2016, 08:55:04 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this
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« Reply #121 on: November 05, 2016, 08:55:31 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.
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« Reply #122 on: November 05, 2016, 08:57:53 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.
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« Reply #123 on: November 05, 2016, 08:57:58 pm »

All those "hot" Midwestern farmers' daughters (and sons, if you swing that way)...have all gotten bachelors' degrees.

And they all moved here to DC, it seems.  
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« Reply #124 on: November 05, 2016, 08:58:05 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.

lmao
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