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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 11392 times)
mencken
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« Reply #150 on: November 05, 2016, 09:36:50 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 20 10 points to the left of West Virginia?

1996: West Virginia: Clinton +15; Virginia: Dole +2 (Difference: -17)
2000: West Virginia: Bush +6; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: -2)
2004: West Virginia: Bush +13; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: 5)

Retrospectively, the correlation between the Virginias seems to have been pretty weak. On the other hand, Iowa and Wisconsin have voted pretty much in sync since 1984. While a break in that trend is hardly unprecedented, it should be evaluated within that context.
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« Reply #151 on: November 05, 2016, 09:37:34 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #152 on: November 05, 2016, 09:50:59 pm »

The Midwest is voting like it's 2004 while the rest of the country votes like it's 2008, except for Arizona and Texas which are voting like it's 2024.
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« Reply #153 on: November 05, 2016, 09:51:07 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #154 on: November 05, 2016, 09:56:02 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "jesus, Iowans are stupid". This might shock you but many Iowans love to mock farmers and the really boorish people in towns. Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

edit: for the record, my Dad is a carpenter. You can call me many things but I'm not an "elitist". I merely have a deep distaste for moronic suckers who can be conned this easily by a fraudster. Considering that farmers tend to be rather affluent, I'm not sure how this embodies any sort of class-based elitism or whatever. I'm making fun of simpletons for being ignorant of the world; I'm not making fun of working class people. Farmers are not union men at a John Deere plant. I can respect the latter for toying with Trump. The former has no excuse and no reason to feel resentment at a government that has made sure that they live "high on the hog". They're landlords and they're sucking in rents from the masses.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 10:01:37 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »Logged



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« Reply #155 on: November 05, 2016, 09:58:42 pm »

If Trump does win Iowa, I don't think this is a permanent shift unless the Trump wing ends up dominating the Republican Party.
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« Reply #156 on: November 05, 2016, 10:02:24 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "wow, Iowans are really dumb". Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

Might lower Democratic enthusiasm be the major problem for Clinton in the state, especially in the driftless area? I'd guess that there'll be high turnout for Trump in the south and west of the state along with low turnout for Clinton in the north and east. I just can't fathom how a state could vote so strongly for Obama then so strongly for Trump. There can't be that many crossover voters.

Edit: I'm not going to judge whether you're elitist or not, that's neither my place nor within my capacity. However, you did come across as that in your post. Plus, it'd take more than Southern Iowa farmers to give Trump a commanding victory in the state. So something else is going on there that can't be explained through reference to "ignorant" farmers.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 10:06:26 pm by Jacobin American »Logged

TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #157 on: November 05, 2016, 10:06:55 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "wow, Iowans are really dumb". Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

Might lower Democratic enthusiasm be the major problem for Clinton in the state, especially in the driftless area? I'd guess that there'll be high turnout for Trump in the south and west of the state along with low turnout for Clinton in the north and east. I just can't fathom how a state could vote so strongly for Obama then so strongly for Trump. There can't be that many crossover voters.

Compare the voting patterns of southern Iowa with the voting patterns of their brethren across the border with Missouri. This explains why Iowa will swing so sharply towards Trump. For decades rural Iowans have been usually supportive of the Democratic Party compared to their peers and a lot of this can be explained by the farm crisis. It makes sense that they'd snap back to their usual pattern as commodity prices have plunged.

I would not be shocked if working class Iowans swing towards Trump or if they turnout at lower rates but that's not where the swing will be: look to southern Iowa in places like Union County.
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« Reply #158 on: November 05, 2016, 10:14:43 pm »

does anyone really doubt that trump's iowa lead is more like +4 than +7?

ofc maybe IA is the one REAAAAAAALLY low turnout state.
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« Reply #159 on: November 05, 2016, 10:16:52 pm »

Selzer is going to be discredited completely this year.
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« Reply #160 on: November 05, 2016, 10:20:45 pm »

I don't think it's implausible at all that there could be a wide gap between Iowa and Wisconsin this year. There are plenty of differences between the two.
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« Reply #161 on: November 05, 2016, 10:44:41 pm »

Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.
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« Reply #162 on: November 05, 2016, 10:54:14 pm »

Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

This entire thread is embarrassing.
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« Reply #163 on: November 05, 2016, 10:56:50 pm »

Iowa has been the one state where the Republican establishment went fully for Trump--and it is paying off for him.

But I think Iowa is now returning to its Republican form and is becoming the next Missouri.  Remember, this is a state that has only been left of the mean since 1984.
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« Reply #164 on: November 05, 2016, 11:16:44 pm »

The swing is going to be in IA-1 if the Blum/Vernon race is actually as close as people think it is. This has been a safe D district in presidential years.

It's really the NW part of the state that is embarrassing...Steve King anyone?
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« Reply #165 on: November 05, 2016, 11:45:30 pm »

Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

Apparently the definition of "working class" is white men who don't have college degrees these days.
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« Reply #166 on: November 05, 2016, 11:52:43 pm »

Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

Apparently the definition of "working class" is white men who don't have college degrees these days.

Bill Gates, working class hero. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #167 on: November 06, 2016, 04:05:16 am »

Well, can Dems at least stop pandering to their stupid corn subsidies now?
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« Reply #168 on: November 06, 2016, 04:43:09 am »

How stupid are the people of Iowa?!
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« Reply #169 on: November 06, 2016, 05:19:27 am »

What to expect from a state that elects Governor Braindead several times?
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« Reply #170 on: November 06, 2016, 05:34:11 am »

Urban minority voters of course see Donald Trump as a threat or at least an anathema. If one rents one sees Donald Trump as the plutocrat who draws the rental payments, someone who get easy money for owning scarce property that allows one to live in the proximity of one's job. If one is a tenant in a giant city Donald Trump reminds you of someone who disposes of much of your personal income. You may see a 'property management company' that seems to simply collect an ever-increasing rental as an exploiter, and Donald Trump as a manifestation of such.

But what if you own your own farm or your own abode (however humble) or have an employer supplying housing to you (possible for a farm laborer)? Someone like Donald Trump is not the problem as an economic drain.
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« Reply #171 on: November 06, 2016, 05:37:58 am »

What the hell happened to this thread? Huh
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« Reply #172 on: November 06, 2016, 07:34:17 am »

LOLIOWA
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« Reply #173 on: November 06, 2016, 09:27:13 am »

What the hell happened to this thread? Huh

The state is trending republican so dems have to reassure themselves by saying Iowans are dumb Hicks.
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« Reply #174 on: November 06, 2016, 01:18:37 pm »

What the hell happened to this thread? Huh

The state is trending republican so dems have to reassure themselves by saying Iowans are dumb Hicks.

No, we say that Republicans are dumb Hicks, and clearly there are more of them in Iowa than before Smiley
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