Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 17, 2019, 05:38:36 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 8 Print
Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 15853 times)
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,260
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 05, 2016, 07:13:16 pm »
« edited: November 05, 2016, 07:14:53 pm by Ljube »


Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


No. Philly suburbs are changing PA from a rust belt state to part of the solid northeast.

PA won't be Trump+7. But if IA can swing from Obama+6 to Trump+7, then PA can swing half as much, which will be enough for a Trump+1 to Trump+2 win.
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,847
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2016, 07:14:08 pm »

     The swing/trend maps for this election will be fascinating.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,372
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:18 pm »


That's strange or at least worth analyzing.

P.S. For all those talking about Clinton campaigning in Michigan, Trump will campaign in Iowa tomorrow.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,355
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:41 pm »

Can we finally stop pretending now that Clinton ever had a chance here?
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,183
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:58 pm »

IA is totally gone for HRC. Explains interest in MI, MN, WI. Thankfully, all of those have better demos for Clinton than IA does. Could FL/NV end up being the real blue wall?
Logged
Still couldn't quell the Bel
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,427
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2016, 07:17:25 pm »

I doubt it'll be this lopsided (though it was in 2014), but yeah, looks like Iowa really has gone full-on Arkansas. Oh well, it's a small loss, and it's worth gains in places like NC and FL (and eventually, AZ and GA).
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,238
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 05, 2016, 07:17:50 pm »

Hope this means Iowa never goes first again.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,939
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 05, 2016, 07:19:15 pm »

The Trump-Cruz margin in their final caucus poll was off by more than 8 points, so it's possible she doesn't have as good a read on Iowa anymore. That said, it was a caucus and much harder to predict than a general election race. Then again, one could argue Trump underpeformed so much in Iowa because of his lack of groundgame, which could be present in the general election as well. Bottom line, I'm not going to count on this poll being wrong, and I'm chalking this up to a Trump win in my prediction.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,183
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:17 pm »

We shouldn't be primary unskewing in here. Leave that for when she is actually wrong after.
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:46 pm »

Despite the bad overall numbers, Clinton continues to dominate the early vote:

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,737
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:51 pm »

It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.
Logged
Classic Conservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,642
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:58 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2016, 07:22:24 pm »


No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 05, 2016, 07:22:32 pm »

Iowa clearly wants to Make America Great Again per the Gold Standard in Iowa polling.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,641
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 05, 2016, 07:23:50 pm »

God Bless Iowa! I hope they remain in the Republican column for future elections.
Logged
One Hundred Million Dollar Racehorse🤡🌏
Ascott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,004
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 05, 2016, 07:24:36 pm »

Fcking morons.

Apparently when you insult the people of a state, they want to vote for you more.  So fck Iowa and fck Ohio, too.

Fck America.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,939
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 05, 2016, 07:24:44 pm »

God Bless Iowa! I hope they remain in the Republican column for future elections.

I'll gladly trade Iowa for North Carolina any day.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,176


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 05, 2016, 07:25:05 pm »

Iowans are embarrassing themselves.
Logged
Donnie
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 350


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 05, 2016, 07:25:48 pm »

Don't want to tell .............5%.

So, it can be Trump by 8-9% not 7%.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,335
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 05, 2016, 07:26:03 pm »

If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.
Logged
heatcharger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,217
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2016, 07:26:21 pm »


I think Selzer is overestimating Trump support again, but yeah:

Horrible state. Let's hope Democrats never hold their first primary/caucus there ever again.

Also it'd be pretty dumb to try to extrapolate the status of other midwestern states based off of Iowa.
Logged
amdcpus
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 286

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2016, 07:26:30 pm »

Despite the bad overall numbers, Clinton continues to dominate the early vote:

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").

Democrats always destroy Republicans in Iowa during early voting. This is a lower margin for them and less Democrats have voted in Iowa since 2012 so this is quite bad for Clinton.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,355
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2016, 07:27:12 pm »


Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,176


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2016, 07:28:29 pm »


Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

Let them dream.
Logged
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,260
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2016, 07:28:38 pm »


Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 8 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC