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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 14091 times)
NRS11
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« Reply #25 on: November 05, 2016, 07:12:13 pm »

Somewhat surprised at +7, but not overly surprised.  Would have thought anywhere between 0-4% (maybe 5%) would be in the ballpark.

I guess women in Iowa don't care much about Trump's comments.
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Ljube
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« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2016, 07:13:16 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 07:14:53 pm by Ljube »

Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


No. Philly suburbs are changing PA from a rust belt state to part of the solid northeast.

PA won't be Trump+7. But if IA can swing from Obama+6 to Trump+7, then PA can swing half as much, which will be enough for a Trump+1 to Trump+2 win.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #27 on: November 05, 2016, 07:14:08 pm »

     The swing/trend maps for this election will be fascinating.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #28 on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:18 pm »

Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

That's strange or at least worth analyzing.

P.S. For all those talking about Clinton campaigning in Michigan, Trump will campaign in Iowa tomorrow.
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Hammy
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« Reply #29 on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:41 pm »

Can we finally stop pretending now that Clinton ever had a chance here?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #30 on: November 05, 2016, 07:15:58 pm »

IA is totally gone for HRC. Explains interest in MI, MN, WI. Thankfully, all of those have better demos for Clinton than IA does. Could FL/NV end up being the real blue wall?
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
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« Reply #31 on: November 05, 2016, 07:17:25 pm »

I doubt it'll be this lopsided (though it was in 2014), but yeah, looks like Iowa really has gone full-on Arkansas. Oh well, it's a small loss, and it's worth gains in places like NC and FL (and eventually, AZ and GA).
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #32 on: November 05, 2016, 07:17:50 pm »

Hope this means Iowa never goes first again.
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Castro
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« Reply #33 on: November 05, 2016, 07:19:15 pm »

The Trump-Cruz margin in their final caucus poll was off by more than 8 points, so it's possible she doesn't have as good a read on Iowa anymore. That said, it was a caucus and much harder to predict than a general election race. Then again, one could argue Trump underpeformed so much in Iowa because of his lack of groundgame, which could be present in the general election as well. Bottom line, I'm not going to count on this poll being wrong, and I'm chalking this up to a Trump win in my prediction.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #34 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:17 pm »

We shouldn't be primary unskewing in here. Leave that for when she is actually wrong after.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #35 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:46 pm »

Despite the bad overall numbers, Clinton continues to dominate the early vote:

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #36 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:51 pm »

It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2016, 07:20:58 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #38 on: November 05, 2016, 07:22:24 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #39 on: November 05, 2016, 07:22:32 pm »

Iowa clearly wants to Make America Great Again per the Gold Standard in Iowa polling.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #40 on: November 05, 2016, 07:23:50 pm »

God Bless Iowa! I hope they remain in the Republican column for future elections.
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FM Scott🦋
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« Reply #41 on: November 05, 2016, 07:24:36 pm »

Fcking morons.

Apparently when you insult the people of a state, they want to vote for you more.  So fck Iowa and fck Ohio, too.

Fck America.
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Castro
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« Reply #42 on: November 05, 2016, 07:24:44 pm »

God Bless Iowa! I hope they remain in the Republican column for future elections.

I'll gladly trade Iowa for North Carolina any day.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #43 on: November 05, 2016, 07:25:05 pm »

Iowans are embarrassing themselves.
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Donnie
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« Reply #44 on: November 05, 2016, 07:25:48 pm »

Don't want to tell .............5%.

So, it can be Trump by 8-9% not 7%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2016, 07:26:03 pm »

If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2016, 07:26:21 pm »

It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.

I think Selzer is overestimating Trump support again, but yeah:

Horrible state. Let's hope Democrats never hold their first primary/caucus there ever again.

Also it'd be pretty dumb to try to extrapolate the status of other midwestern states based off of Iowa.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2016, 07:26:30 pm »

Despite the bad overall numbers, Clinton continues to dominate the early vote:

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").

Democrats always destroy Republicans in Iowa during early voting. This is a lower margin for them and less Democrats have voted in Iowa since 2012 so this is quite bad for Clinton.
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Hammy
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« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2016, 07:27:12 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2016, 07:28:29 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

Let them dream.
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