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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 14181 times)
Ljube
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« Reply #50 on: November 05, 2016, 07:28:38 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #51 on: November 05, 2016, 07:29:12 pm »

Fcking morons.

Apparently when you insult the people of a state, they want to vote for you more.  So fck Iowa and fck Ohio, too.

Fck America.

Yes, it's called negging. The best way to understand the Trump campaign is to read MRA/pickup artist blogs.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #52 on: November 05, 2016, 07:30:01 pm »

If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #53 on: November 05, 2016, 07:31:07 pm »

Bye, Iowa.
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Hammy
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« Reply #54 on: November 05, 2016, 07:31:18 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.


Iowa is not an indicator of any of those four states--the demographics are completely different. Iowa has more in common with Kansas than it does PA/WI/MN/MN. I will agree that Ohio has been gone for some time, but again it's starting to have more in common with Indiana than Pennsylvania as populations change.
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Horus
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« Reply #55 on: November 05, 2016, 07:32:29 pm »

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.


Iowa is not an indicator of any of those four states--the demographics are completely different. Iowa has more in common with Kansas than it does PA/WI/MN/MN.

Not to mention the farm crisis which left a generation of Iowans unnaturally Democratic. The state is just going back to normal.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #56 on: November 05, 2016, 07:34:15 pm »

If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...

That's not what that means. In the poll, Selzer points out enthusiasm for Hillary is low amongst Bernie supporters and she thinks they're not going to turn out. Hillary is just a bad fit.
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alomas
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« Reply #57 on: November 05, 2016, 07:34:37 pm »

Being down seven can be the best news from this poll for Clinton. She is definitely more vulnerable than Obama in Midwest, especially Michigan and Pennsylvania. But on the other hand she may get off the hook and Iowa can be 2012's Indiana and Ohio 2012's NC. It gives some hope.
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Ljube
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« Reply #58 on: November 05, 2016, 07:35:17 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #59 on: November 05, 2016, 07:35:38 pm »

Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.

The factors at work in Iowa are unique to the state. 
The sad truth about Iowa... http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/education/2015/05/10/iowa-student-brain-drain/26999519/
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heatcharger
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« Reply #60 on: November 05, 2016, 07:36:35 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?
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Arch
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« Reply #61 on: November 05, 2016, 07:37:03 pm »

Bye, Iowa.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #62 on: November 05, 2016, 07:37:59 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We had a quality poll from Marquette.
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« Reply #63 on: November 05, 2016, 07:38:13 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just had two quality polls from WI, you just don't like the results.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #64 on: November 05, 2016, 07:39:26 pm »

Yes Iowa is now republican because all the smart people left in four years. Atlas is becoming unbearable.
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alomas
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« Reply #65 on: November 05, 2016, 07:40:05 pm »

I hope Trump won't go to Iowa just to say they are leading there "big league" (now "bigly", he is not using that word, look at his twitter).
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #66 on: November 05, 2016, 07:40:09 pm »

I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56

Img

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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #67 on: November 05, 2016, 07:40:21 pm »

Yes Iowa is now republican because all the smart people left in four years. Atlas is becoming unbearable.

So you deny uneducated voters are a huge part of the Trump support-base, do you?
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #68 on: November 05, 2016, 07:41:59 pm »

People who assume that the fact that Trump is doing well in Iowa must mean he's also doing well in in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are oversimplifying matters. First of all, polls do not suggest he's doing well in those states (except for a few odd Michigan polls). More importantly, these states are not at all identical to Iowa. They all have a much higher percentage of urban and suburban voters, a demographic that Trump struggles enormously with. Wisconsin and Michigan also have a higher percentage of black voters than Iowa. Not to mention that Minnesota and Wisconsin in particular have more college educated voters than Iowa.
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Ljube
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« Reply #69 on: November 05, 2016, 07:42:17 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?

PPP poll is for a left wing advocacy group, so it can't be trusted.
Marquette poll is a bit old.

I don't think Wisconsin can be won because of same day registration and Dem ground game.
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dspNY
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« Reply #70 on: November 05, 2016, 07:42:49 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


Marquette: Clinton 46, Trump 40
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Hammy
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« Reply #71 on: November 05, 2016, 07:43:21 pm »

I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56

Img



Notice Minnesota is the biggest correlating state though...
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #72 on: November 05, 2016, 07:44:15 pm »

To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?

PPP poll is for a left wing advocacy group, so it can't be trusted.
Marquette poll is a bit old.

I don't think Wisconsin can be won because of same day registration and Dem ground game.


Yes it can be trusted. PPP wouldn't be it's reputation on the line like that if they didn't trust the results. They are being payed for hundreds of private polls, they lose money if their reputation goes into the trash.
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Kempros
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« Reply #73 on: November 05, 2016, 07:44:24 pm »

A one party system will be the end of our country. That means that states will have to trend R not just D.
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alomas
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« Reply #74 on: November 05, 2016, 07:45:17 pm »

So we probably know why Bill Clinton is coming to Michigan.
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