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  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 15887 times)
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #100 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:08 pm »


I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.
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« Reply #101 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:32 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Using this logic, Trump being under 50 in Utah points to a 40+ state win for Hillary.
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Storebought
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« Reply #102 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:45 pm »

I was right to say that Clinton should have pulled out of this state at least a week ago.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #103 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:54 pm »

Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #104 on: November 05, 2016, 08:18:40 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Using this logic, Trump up six in Utah points to a 40+ state win for Hillary.
Yeah... the only other state outside her reach would be Wyoming, LOL. #BattlegroundWestVirginia
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #105 on: November 05, 2016, 08:20:45 pm »


I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #106 on: November 05, 2016, 08:21:54 pm »

Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.

Grow a pair.
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It reminds me of something. I of course mean Iowa. Iowa is like a ghetto, right?
They have a poverty and drug problem...
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JA
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« Reply #107 on: November 05, 2016, 08:22:54 pm »

Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.
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« Reply #108 on: November 05, 2016, 08:33:39 pm »

you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Zero correlation.

Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.

I quit following 538's "analysis" a long time ago--there's so little sense to any of it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #109 on: November 05, 2016, 08:40:05 pm »


I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 

Ouch. I missed this part...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #110 on: November 05, 2016, 08:42:12 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 08:45:05 pm by Little Big BREXIT »

Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.

That's why early voting statistics might backfire a bit...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #111 on: November 05, 2016, 08:42:58 pm »

i'm just wondering why he didn't go on calling every other state stupid considering how successful he's been in this state.
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« Reply #112 on: November 05, 2016, 08:44:51 pm »

Wow, this is much more than I expected. I have a feeling that the complete midwestern is more closed than everyone realize. No wonder Clinton and Obama are going to Michigan on Monday
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« Reply #113 on: November 05, 2016, 08:50:47 pm »


I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #114 on: November 05, 2016, 08:51:54 pm »

Harry Enten already saw some of it in 2014

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-funny-happened-in-iowa-and-it-may-hurt-democrats-in-2016/
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #115 on: November 05, 2016, 08:53:51 pm »


I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...
As I alreade wrote, I missed part about "under 35".

But in theory, since they have all the statics (even how many registred R/D/I in each age group, gender and so on), they could reweight for it as well. But I don't think that it possible with such a small sample.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #116 on: November 05, 2016, 08:54:20 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #117 on: November 05, 2016, 08:55:04 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #118 on: November 05, 2016, 08:55:31 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.
Stop
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #119 on: November 05, 2016, 08:57:53 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.
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komodozer
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« Reply #120 on: November 05, 2016, 08:57:58 pm »

All those "hot" Midwestern farmers' daughters (and sons, if you swing that way)...have all gotten bachelors' degrees.

And they all moved here to DC, it seems.  
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #121 on: November 05, 2016, 08:58:05 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.

lmao
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #122 on: November 05, 2016, 08:58:17 pm »

So we can bash Iowa now for being a Trump state? I guess we through out civility as well?

Anyways, we can afford to lose Iowa to Trump in exchange for flipping NC back
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #123 on: November 05, 2016, 09:01:00 pm »

My grandpa helped renovate this:
Image Link

I'm pretty connected to Iowa whether I like it or not. Half of the buildings in my father's home town were built by my grandpa. I feel pretty entitled to hate my family's state for betraying me and voting for some crypto-fascist who said very hateful things about me and my mother. Idaho will do the same but, alas, Idaho has always treated me this way. Iowa doing this is dark. What a dumb state! I hope Clinton hits it hard and takes away their precious corn syrup and trashcan ethanol subsidies. Those lil rent-seeking farmers need to be punished for being brats.
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Scott 🤡🌏
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« Reply #124 on: November 05, 2016, 09:01:30 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

Iowa literally picks all its politicians based on how "personable" they are.  Whoever wins the beer contest wins Iowa.  It's one of the worst swing states for that reason alone.
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