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  IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 15924 times)
HokeyDood
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« Reply #125 on: November 05, 2016, 09:04:06 pm »

Why have you changed your post, DFB?  You would think Trumpies would embrace the harsh reality of these dumb Iowan cornheads considering their love of Mr. Anti-PC himself.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #126 on: November 05, 2016, 09:06:11 pm »

We're the working class whites who voted for Obama in 2012 dumb? Or did they become dumb sometime in the past four years?
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #127 on: November 05, 2016, 09:11:53 pm »

ITT: People making ridiculous stereotypes about another group of people and feeling superior in the process.

Keep it up guys, you're really showing our moral superiority here.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #128 on: November 05, 2016, 09:12:04 pm »

Good to see DFB speaking some truth instead of the usual coddling of simpletons and racists by the "cuck left".
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Scott 🤡🌏
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« Reply #129 on: November 05, 2016, 09:15:39 pm »

Good to see DFB speaking some truth instead of the usual coddling of simpletons and racists by the "cuck left".

The cuck-left really is the worst, isn't it?  "Nice guy ff"-ism is the most destructive force in politics, more so than what Trump's given us.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #130 on: November 05, 2016, 09:18:51 pm »

yeah DFB stop being so mean to the racists! we need to sympathize with them Cry
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #131 on: November 05, 2016, 09:19:38 pm »

Do you think many of the farmers in Iowa will come under the control of and be bounded by some Lords and Barons?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #132 on: November 05, 2016, 09:20:27 pm »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #133 on: November 05, 2016, 09:23:39 pm »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

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mencken
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« Reply #134 on: November 05, 2016, 09:25:00 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.
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Ljube
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« Reply #135 on: November 05, 2016, 09:25:26 pm »

Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. Smiley

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

Obama/Trump vote is gonna be massive.
That's the basis of Trump's impending victory.
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« Reply #136 on: November 05, 2016, 09:26:01 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.
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Ljube
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« Reply #137 on: November 05, 2016, 09:27:04 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #138 on: November 05, 2016, 09:27:51 pm »

Ok... this polling thread has once again descended into the cesspool with many of the comments here.

All being said, isn't the Des Moines Register poll run by Seltzer & Co considered to be the "Gold Standard" of Iowa polling similar to Marquette in Wisconsin?

I think everyone here can agree, it looks like Trump will likely win Iowa, regardless of the final margins, and EV numbers seem to indicate a drop-off in Democratic enthusiasm from the Obama era, where he did quite well as a Mid-West Democrat in a state where George Jr. won in 2004.

It will be interesting to watch trends in 2020 if Republicans nominate a candidate that is not a protectionist on trade related issues, and is an interventionist on foreign policy issues, to see if Iowa swings back towards the Democratic Party.

Iowa voters are frequently dovish on foreign policy and protectionist on economic policy, and Clinton's brand going back to 2008 doesn't resonate the same way that Obama's has, and Trump has certainly muddied the waters of the "traditional Republican" policies on these overall attitudes.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #139 on: November 05, 2016, 09:29:33 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 10 points to the left of West Virginia?
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Arch
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« Reply #140 on: November 05, 2016, 09:29:59 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.
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Ljube
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« Reply #141 on: November 05, 2016, 09:30:53 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #142 on: November 05, 2016, 09:31:41 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Iowa and Wisconsin really aren't that alike anymore.
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Arch
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« Reply #143 on: November 05, 2016, 09:34:41 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?


Here. I'll take your hand:

IA:
RCP Average   Trump +3.0
Trump +7
Trump +3
Clinton +1
Tie
Trump +4
Tie
Trump +7
Trump +8
Trump +5

WI:
RCP Average   Clinton +5.5
Clinton +6
Clinton +4
Clinton +6
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
Clinton +7
Clinton +8
Clinton +7
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mencken
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« Reply #144 on: November 05, 2016, 09:36:50 pm »

So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 20 10 points to the left of West Virginia?

1996: West Virginia: Clinton +15; Virginia: Dole +2 (Difference: -17)
2000: West Virginia: Bush +6; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: -2)
2004: West Virginia: Bush +13; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: 5)

Retrospectively, the correlation between the Virginias seems to have been pretty weak. On the other hand, Iowa and Wisconsin have voted pretty much in sync since 1984. While a break in that trend is hardly unprecedented, it should be evaluated within that context.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #145 on: November 05, 2016, 09:37:34 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.

lmao
I don't know what to say.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #146 on: November 05, 2016, 09:50:59 pm »

The Midwest is voting like it's 2004 while the rest of the country votes like it's 2008, except for Arizona and Texas which are voting like it's 2024.
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JA
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« Reply #147 on: November 05, 2016, 09:51:07 pm »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #148 on: November 05, 2016, 09:56:02 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2016, 10:01:37 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »

My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "jesus, Iowans are stupid". This might shock you but many Iowans love to mock farmers and the really boorish people in towns. Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

edit: for the record, my Dad is a carpenter. You can call me many things but I'm not an "elitist". I merely have a deep distaste for moronic suckers who can be conned this easily by a fraudster. Considering that farmers tend to be rather affluent, I'm not sure how this embodies any sort of class-based elitism or whatever. I'm making fun of simpletons for being ignorant of the world; I'm not making fun of working class people. Farmers are not union men at a John Deere plant. I can respect the latter for toying with Trump. The former has no excuse and no reason to feel resentment at a government that has made sure that they live "high on the hog". They're landlords and they're sucking in rents from the masses.
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Figueira
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« Reply #149 on: November 05, 2016, 09:58:42 pm »

If Trump does win Iowa, I don't think this is a permanent shift unless the Trump wing ends up dominating the Republican Party.
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